Is it just me? Trade entry remorse

[Jdesey]

I look at CL but I try not to even thing about trading it. It seems so easy given how far it can move when it starts moving, but honestly, this is a double edged sword. In many ways, ES is superior because when you are wrong, you can get out in seconds without too much damage, and it takes lots of power to push through key levels. CL is the opposite in that a sneeze can cost you lots of money, and the turns seem to happen in lots of random places as what I would think are key levels get broken all the time.

Saying all this, it seems like you would need very different strategies to trade the two, and I just can't imagine that you could have come up with edges for both NQ and CL at the same time.

The fact that you jumped so easily from ES to NQ and CL also to me shows lack of discipline. The market only offers what it offers, and you have to accept that. 1 point profit is plenty if you reach a consistency level where you can trade 5 or 10 contracts. But the minute the range turned to 5 points, you jumped ship, chasing more volatility, which once again is a double edged sword. I think it would be better to stick it out in the environment it was in, learn to adjust for that environment, and be ready for when it picked up, like it did now.

I have thought that these past couple of days, after your great NQ trade, that you might get killed because of the insane volatility in NQ. Its not even insane really. It gets insane when the NQ blows through 10 points in 2 seconds, which it easily can. That's why I made the comment I made about then staring a new thread about trading the bonds because all of a sudden you find NQ to be moving too quickly.

You can of course do what you want, but I think being the expert at just one thing is best. You want to know it so well that you feel confident putting on 5 or 10 contracts. You want to know it so well that you can taste the low range days and know what to do about it, as well as now when the range really opens up and then adjust accordingly once again.

those are very good points. I finally bailed on ES cause it just wasn't working for me.

All along I have said that I want to know one asset inside out just as you mention.

These are very tough decisions and I am still learning.

more to think about.

but for sure, I am very unhappy with my performance today. That is a good thing

 

[Gotcha]

but for sure, I am very unhappy with my performance today. That is a good thing

I hope that its not just because you lost money. Since you lost it in CL and not NQ, it sounds like maybe your trades just didn't work. It sucks to go through the PnL rollercoaster ride, but perhaps you shouldn't be hard on yourself if you did do what you intended to do.

 

[comagnum]

Trade remorse - classic causes:

Trading way to big.
Not planning your trades well in advance.
Not having a trading plan defining your setups,trade frequency, & risk/trade mgmt.

Great comment from one of the best:

 

[baggerlord]

Jdesey if you play with some simulators or just do some math you will see you basically have 100 pct chance of losing all your money. Of course I don't know if you have more you plan to add. Not trying to insult you, really trying to help. Your swings are way too large in relation to your account size so it is normal to have unpleasant motions.

 

[Overnight]

...
12 month range
42

last 30 days
50

2017 range
40

5 yr range
44

10 yr range
42

The only problem with your range analysis is that you have a new wildcard in the mix now, helping to drive markets...#45 and the North Korea "problem".

Another issue I have with your range analysis is the numbers you are plotting...

Take the 2017 range you listed...I currently see that range at ~1,150 points, not 44 points.

Am I misinterpreting your numbers?

 

[Jdesey]

that is daily range I am posting... does that clarify

so it is daily range for 2017, daily for 5 years... etc....

1,150 daily range ???? nope

 

[Gotcha]

Jdesey if you play with some simulators or just do some math you will see you basically have 100 pct chance of losing all your money. Of course I don't know if you have more you plan to add. Not trying to insult you, really trying to help. Your swings are way too large in relation to your account size so it is normal to have unpleasant motions.

I do actually think he may have something good if he just stuck with the NQ or ES. Adding CL is a big distraction, and it moves so much differently that it can really cause you to not be in the zone. It all comes down to his trade stats.

The fact that he lost it all today in CL still perhaps doesn't negate his NQ stats which should be much better. But I often see that guys only do well on days where it moves not too quickly, but has a nice range, with obvious pullbacks and a nice stair stepping trend. The minute that it changes to a range, these guys get stopped out all the time, and when the volatility is too high, they also get stopped out from just a hiccup.

The fact is that days like today and yesterday have been rare for the past few weeks, so a strategy needs to work in most market conditions and this is the tricky part. You need a big enough stop for it not to be hit often, but then on many days it might not move enough to hit your target. Days like today offer very nice opportunity to collect lots of points, but depending on how a person enters, the whipsawing may not keep them in trades for long.

 

[Jdesey]

yes for sure... I cannot be too distracted and succeed...

My original idea was that if I watched both CL and NQorES that since it is the energy sector vs. stocks... that if there was nothing happening for CL then maybe I would have trades on a stock index... or vice versa...

hmmm lots to think over

 

[Overnight]

that is daily range I am posting... does that clarify

so it is daily range for 2017, daily for 5 years... etc....

1,150 daily range ???? nope

Ahh, so you posted the average daily range over those time periods. Sorry, you weren't clear about that in the post I replied to.

 

[Gotcha]

yes for sure... I cannot be too distracted and succeed...

My original idea was that if I watched both CL and NQorES that since it is the energy sector vs. stocks... that if there was nothing happening for CL then maybe I would have trades on a stock index... or vice versa...

hmmm lots to think over

Its not a bad idea, and honestly, it took me too long to figure this out, but many traders are watching a few markets for exactly this. They want to see correlation, and when they see it, the trades work even better. You can even add in the VIX, cause a very good trader I know watches this as well.

But they aren't looking for trades in all the markets, they just want to see them moving in the same direction to give them more confidence in the trade. It also sucks that sometimes, these divergences break down. Oil, gold, stock indexes, these used to have good correlations, but when they break down, you're left scratching your head.

I personally don't watch that many cause now you might be paralyzed by too much analysis, but what I do watch makes the picture much clearer than just watching the one I'm trading.