Is it getting harder?

[mdl060374]

Quote from intradaybill:

"Us against the machines" is a red herring. Us agaisst research and trading departments staffed with highly paid brains with graduate degrees in math, physics, statistics, psychology, etc. is the reality. People create robots.

Can you beat them? The answer is yes but you will have to do something out of the ordinary. That was my point. David beat Goliath, that is true. Do you know before that and after that how many were beaten by Goliaths?

Not necessarily true. If you are trading a strategy that trades relatively small size (due to scalability issues) then hedge funds arent your competition...

Also, it ISNT a zero sum game... different time frames allow for winners on both sides of the trade. A swing trader can be unwinding a position for a profit, while the scalper takes the contra side, and rides a continuation for a small profit..

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from mdl060374:

Not necessarily true. If you are trading a strategy that trades relatively small size (due to scalability issues) then hedge funds arent your competition...

Then this should be a small size paradise. Empirical evidence says though that small size is hit harder than large size. Unless empirical evidence means nothing to you.

Quote from mdl060374:

Also, it ISNT a zero sum game... different time frames allow for winners on both sides of the trade. A swing trader can be unwinding a position for a profit, while the scalper takes the contra side, and rides a continuation for a small profit..

Trading is zero-sum. Unless you show to us how one can win without someone else losing money. Your example is false because it does not consider the losers of the transactions.

Just think about it: can someone take money home trading without someone else providing it from his account? It is a simple question with a simple answer: NO.

Anything else is wild wet dreaming. If you want to make money trading, you have to take it from someone else.

 

[januson]

Quote from intradaybill:
Trading is zero-sum. Unless you show to us how one can win without someone else losing money. Your example is false because it does not consider the losers of the transactions.

Just think about it: can someone take money home trading without someone else providing it from his account? It is a simple question with a simple answer: NO.

Anything else is wild wet dreaming. If you want to make money trading, you have to take it from someone else. [/B]

A bit of a truism I think

If an equity only goes up, then each time it is traded, each owner will profit from it. Of course there will be owners that earn much or less, but no one will loose money on it.

Why do you say there are losers in a transaction?

NB: I know it's different with shorting - or is it?

 

[the1]

I guess it depends on your strategy because the past month has been much easier for me. Gimme volatility anyday. It ain't the algo's. The environment is just changing. Develop a tool to measure volatility (or use an existing one) that makes sense to you and the light bulb should glow a bit brighter. When the rubber hits the pavement you are trading volatility or the lack of volatility. It takes different strategies for different environments.

Quote from januson:

Hi dear fellow traders

I've been away for a couple of years, many things has happened in my life, family expansion, death, moving etc.

During the last month, I've wondered.... is the market getting tougher?
Is't still the same race us against the algos or has the machines conquered everything leaving us as dumb money?

Us against the machines is of course a truism, I mean our algo experience against the multi million dollar-working 24 hours a day-to-create-the-best-algo

 

[Mr. Tenacity]

It is getting harder. The Truth is if you want to be successful, trading doesn't stop when the market is closed. You review your trades(biggest Losers Only).

I am a firm believer that humans were not meant to be traders, we get angry, we may have a biased and other issues that may influences our decision making process. Please be aware that algorithim trading is here to stay and they don't ever lose, three months with one losing day(WTF) while us regular traders are trying to support our family via the market.

To summarize, trading is harder than it was ten years ago, closed to 70% of trading is done by algorithim supercomputers, please try to automate your trading and make sure your trading plan fits your personality.

 

[YuforaCapital]

Quote from januson:

Hi intradaybill

My question was only targeting ATS, is it getting tougher to create and maintain a good strategy nowadays?
I wasn't asking about what was needed to in terms of equipment. Lets say I've access to all the software needed
Can we amateurs still hold up with the pro algos?

It may be harder for day traders, but I'm not a day trader so I'm not sure... but if you're a swing trader with a reasonable strategy it's not so bad.

 

[YuforaCapital]

Quote from mwingo1135:

IT depends on the type of strategy. If your strategy deals with range or chaos the range in all investment markets have changed over the years.

If your strategy is dealing with trends then a trend is a trend until it bends.

I have multiple strategies. But I have a trend strategy I backtested to the 80's and it worked all the way through all the previous crashes and it works in current market.

So it depends on the type of trading your doing and range trading works in current market but you may have to readapt the strategy in later years.

I agree...
Markets can be bullish, bearish or flat, volatile, non-volatile. One has to have an edge and to trade all markets.

 

[bone]

Quote from YuforaCapital:

It may be harder for day traders, but I'm not a day trader so I'm not sure... but if you're a swing trader with a reasonable strategy it's not so bad.

X2

I used to trade 400K RTs per month up until about five years ago, and completely changed my style to swing trading - there is great clarity in standing back away from the turbulence.

 

[YuforaCapital]

Quote from intradaybill:

Then this should be a small size paradise. Empirical evidence says though that small size is hit harder than large size. Unless empirical evidence means nothing to you.



Trading is zero-sum. Unless you show to us how one can win without someone else losing money. Your example is false because it does not consider the losers of the transactions.

Just think about it: can someone take money home trading without someone else providing it from his account? It is a simple question with a simple answer: NO.

Anything else is wild wet dreaming. If you want to make money trading, you have to take it from someone else.

Zero sum game belief is a fallacy if you trade futures or write option contracts, especially when you have a margin call then it becomes a negative sum game!

 

[the1]

I would agree in part. I spend more time analyzing my trading results than I do analyzing the markets but I don't spend all of my time analyzing the losers. I analyze the losers, relative to the winners and I'm espcially concerned with the amount of profit that is generated for a given amount of risk assumed. The reward, or potential reward, must always be bigger than the risk or potential risk. As you would expect there's an element of art associated with this type of analysis because if my methods say a 3 point profit potential was there vs. a 1 point loss it doesn't necessarily mean that was the case.

I analyze the markets to detect subtle changes in the character of the market that lead to dramatic changes in the character of the market. Diito for my trading results. Everything has to be analyzed relative to historical performance Trading is a process of analyze, adjust, implement, and repeat, that never ends because the market character never stays the same. Suffice it to say, I don't believe the black boxes work without going through the above mentioned process. And then there's the analysis of you mental state. Does the grind ever get easy? Not a chance. That's the thing that keeps us coming back

Quote from Mr. Tenacity:

It is getting harder. The Truth is if you want to be successful, trading doesn't stop when the market is closed. You review your trades(biggest Losers Only).

I am a firm believer that humans were not meant to be traders, we get angry, we may have a biased and other issues that may influences our decision making process. Please be aware that algorithim trading is here to stay and they don't ever lose, three months with one losing day(WTF) while us regular traders are trying to support our family via the market.

To summarize, trading is harder than it was ten years ago, closed to 70% of trading is done by algorithim supercomputers, please try to automate your trading and make sure your trading plan fits your personality.