Is it finally time to snap up a house?

this may be a great time to buy, but it depends on a lot of factors.

If I wanted a new, never lived in home, I'd be out there right now shopping. As new construction dries up(it already is) the glut of new homes will begin to fall. As it does builder's will have less and less incentive to deal. Right now they are hurting bad and you can take advantage of their pain:)

As for buying a home from a normal seller. I'd wait. Reality hasn't set in there yet and most couldn't make the deal I'd want even if they couldn't afford to keep the house.
 
Quote from jreynolds212:

When I think about housing, I like to turn to the "experts". These "experts" are the homebuilders that seem to have a good view of the situation. Although the XHB and stocks like HOVN have made quite a nice rebound, I believe what tolls for the housing market may be different. Here is what the "experts" have to say. Im going to take the "experts" advice and wait until 2009-2010 before snapping up a house:

KBHomes 2007 10-K

"Based on our efforts in 2007, we believe we are well positioned financially and strategically to navigate through the current housing market downturn and have set a foundation for future growth. However, we believe 2008 will be another tough year for the homebuilding industry and see no indication that housing markets struggling with a significant oversupply of homes available for sale are stabilizing. We believe the moderating sales activity and significant pricing and margin pressures that affected the homebuilding industry throughout 2007 will continue, and may deepen, until current new and resale home inventory levels are in better balance with demand, and it is not clear when this may occur. As a result, we do not expect our delivery volume and related revenues to improve in 2008, and we may need to take additional charges for inventory impairments in the future. In addition, our 2008, and possibly 2009, results may be negatively affected if there is a downturn in the general economy, a decrease in job growth and/or a decline in overall consumer confidence that further prolongs the recovery of the housing markets."
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why did you even ask if you weren't even going to listen to what we said?

again what state do you live in? that is what matters the most. if you live in texas like me then prices really aren't an issue it is more a matter of getting a great rate on a mortgage.
 
It seems like the answer to this question like most every question is "it depends."

:)

(So ignoring the fact that the house you live in is generally not an investment...)

I don't think we're at the bottom yet. I think bottom is around 2010-2012 depending on Fed intervention. If the Fed continues to print we could see a long slow decline or sideways move (which is the same as declining at the rate of inflation).

So we have competing forces: lowered prices due to overpricing which is bad for housing vs possible inflation and really low financing rates (if you can qualify) which is good for housing.

Well, we can build a spreadsheet to evaluate various scenarios but overall it seems that buying a house in any of the bubble areas would be a poor investment at this time (CA, NY, florida, nevade, etc.) but buying in areas that didn't inflate could be a good hedge against inflation (mostly the red states).

--s
 
Too soon.

Another 20 to 48 months of pain, before any clear bottom will be able to be seen with any degree of clarity.

Supply and demand = not equilibrium yet.

Catching falling knives leads to many wounds.
 
To me the housing stocks look like they have completed half of a measure move, not bottomed and most importantly, housing stocks react way ahead of housing so even if this were the bottom you would have to add the time from the start of the selloff (jan 06) to now to get an idea when housing itself will bottom i.e. 24 months. Assuming limited securitizatuion a useful fundamental gauge might be price as a multiple of salaries as per the old fashioned banking yardstick. Housing markets aren't at bottom until anybody talking of operating in the sector is regarded as mad. We have not even seen the first wave of buyers in the wings coming in, and usually the go from congratulating themselves on their bargain to cursing themselves for buying too early.
 
Quote from jreynolds212:

Is it finally time to snap up a house? I have a few buddies who decided to hang onto their houses through thick or thin. They bought at the top and are now paying inflated prices for taxes, insurance, etc and are now barely holding on.

Now I see many apartment dwellers finally coming out and throwing down cash to buy homes thinking and believing that the storm is now over, the bottom is in.

In looking back at how equities have traded, such as those stocks of the $NDX in 2000, it was commonplace for folks to think and believe the bottom was in and the trend changed only to experience an even greater selloff.

From just an investment point of view, would you buy a house right now? Is the bottom truly in?

I'll add that looking at the XHB, it does appear as something has changed or is it just a technical bounce? I know that there is a good chance my buddy will probably sell and unload his house if prices turned around. I see many people getting "laid off" around me such as one good friend who worked at an insurance company for over 18 years.

What says you?
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bubbles, tend to give back all the gains of the bubble
if you look at the housing builder stock charts, many of them did just that
 
Quote from jreynolds212:

Is it finally time to snap up a house? I have a few buddies who decided to hang onto their houses through thick or thin. They bought at the top and are now paying inflated prices for taxes, insurance, etc and are now barely holding on.

Now I see many apartment dwellers finally coming out and throwing down cash to buy homes thinking and believing that the storm is now over, the bottom is in.

In looking back at how equities have traded, such as those stocks of the $NDX in 2000, it was commonplace for folks to think and believe the bottom was in and the trend changed only to experience an even greater selloff.

From just an investment point of view, would you buy a house right now? Is the bottom truly in?

I'll add that looking at the XHB, it does appear as something has changed or is it just a technical bounce? I know that there is a good chance my buddy will probably sell and unload his house if prices turned around. I see many people getting "laid off" around me such as one good friend who worked at an insurance company for over 18 years.

What says you?
More...

I am doing just that. Perfect timing in my view. 4 acres, small, weekend place. I choked on the mortgage rate lock in but you can get good loans now. Banks willing to lend~ stoney

~stoney
 
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