Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?

romik said:
Although research is of great importance I still believe that there is no way of knowing, by looking at a chart, whether something IS a pullback or a reversal, until future becomes present. You could have seen a pattern a thousand times, yet the next time is always equal odds. We can easily establish this via a test, any takers?

Experience/knowledge do matter a lot, but it's either luck or inside information that will improve odds IMO.
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I don't agree about equal odds though.
 
Autodidact said:
I don't agree about equal odds though.
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I don't dispute existence of patterns, be they conventional or more of a proprietary nature, their positive expectancy rate is IMO more random than what some would like to believe, hence best of the best deliver 60% win rate at best of times. Let's not forget that positive expectancy isn't just based on getting direction correct, but stop placement.
 
You can know if the price action is a pullback or reversal in real-time via whatever definition you're using.

The real issues...will the price action continue as a pullback or reversal after your identification of such and will you be able to exploit such for profits Long or Short within the pullback...Long or Short within a reversal.

The reason why I said Long or Short within each is because some folks like to fade their identifications (e.g. fade breakouts).
 
All of you are focused on /ES if you took a look at /NQ you would see a classic Stegosaurus pattern forming.
Definitely a reversal.....


oacbwm.jpg
 
eurusdzn said:
EOD bars have established an ascending channel with a touch of the lower line today.
Damn if this doesnt sound like D....
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Would not b surprised if D (and N) bought the bottom of the 'real' chan Wednesday.

es1.png

anyone able to anticipate where the actual bottom will b based on the quasi abuse of chan rules in this pic?
 
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