He prefaced the thread by focusing on only one time frame, for discussion. My time frame may be a down channel. Your timeframe may be saying up (for arguments sake). I agree with you. We're dealing in the world of probabilities. Although Schizo has an interesting method to call levels (pullbacks or reversals using S/R and time), it appears...
Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?
- Thread starter schizo
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The problem with your chart is that price doesn't exactly stop at the line. From your previous post, I know you expect (and demandYou're very welcome to discuss the chart I posted above
Pullback or reversal?
) this market to hit the sewer. So, yes, it better be a damn reversal! 
The problem with your chart is that price doesn't exactly stop at the line. From your previous post, I know you expect (and demand
Wishful thinking? Fab.
So if price stopped at the line, then what?
I did?? I have no recollection.
Anyway, here's the deal. I mostly trade the 5-minute. However, what dictates my bullish or bearish bias is the longer timeframe, say, 4-hour chart. So if it's bullish on the 4-hour, I would think twice about going short. Although there will be times when I will try to exploit overextended moves by trading against the prevailing trend, I prefer to trade with the trend.
But here's where it gets dicey. And this usually happens near the end of the trend. If the 4-hour chart is down, but 5-min is up, should I be long or short? The answer is BOTH, depending on the context.
1) As noted above, 4-hour chart should dictate the longer term trend, so you'll want to trade accordingly.
2) However, since all trends begin with the shorter timeframe (eg. change in the 5-min will affect the 15-min, which will then impact the 60-min, etc), you'll want to see if there's a follow through. It usually takes a great amount of time for the 5-min to affect the 4-hour chart.
3) Hence, my view of the market is both "deductive" (reaction) and "inductive" (anticipation).
Hope that made sense. BTW, in reality, it ain't so easy to trade like this. By all means.
Well, I prefer to see something more exact. In your chart, price can overshoot the indicator by as much as (what appears to be) 50 points before reversing.
I'm after an answer mate, is that a pullback or a reversal? Assume it to be 5min chart or any other frame.
I ain't too clear, so let me ask a few questions of my own before answering. On the daily, we're currently in a downtrend, yes? So once we go up to the indicator in question and stop, that would be a considered a pullback, right? If we pierce above the indicator and continue higher, however, that would be construed as a reversal, no? But by how much? In your chart, as I mentioned already, prices can go much higher than the indicator.
My answer to your question: Looking back at this day in 3 months, everyone will say that we were in a Pullback.
Now, you tell me, where we will be trading when the reversal takes place? Give me the exact number, please.
Personally I haven't got a clue whether one is a pullback or a reversal when starring at a bounce. My counter question to you, if I don't know whether it's ACTUALLY going to be a reversal or a pullback, does that make me an unsuccessful trader according to your opening statement?
In other words, is there a sure way of knowing whether a current bounce will result in a reversal of a current trend?
In other words, is there a sure way of knowing whether a current bounce will result in a reversal of a current trend?
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1) Why do you want to turn this thread into another ES Journal? I specifically stated that I want no predictions in this thread.
2) Just where did I say that there's "a sure way of knowing whether a current bounce will result in a reversal of a current trend?" This is what I wrote at the outset of this thread. Is that what it means, namely, I must know in advance where price would end and reverse?
Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?
This is ALL you need to know in order to trade successfully.
I sense a sarcasm in your post, but please let's not start another flame war.