Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
This had potential to be a good thread for those wanting to learn but then you get people that argue for the sake of arguing and then ultra-noobs arguing because they didnt learn shit for free. Crazy stuff, I think thread starters should have moderating power over their threads and if that power is abused then moderators can jump in.
Nothing stops you from adding to this thread if you want... like going into detail about that one thing that was shared which you say is incredibly powerful.
Although it wasn't my intention, I probably have played no small part in the ongoing spit contest. Since this is my thread, I'm gonna ask everyone, including the gurus and the vigilantes, to chill out and stop flaming. It's already too damn hot in here.
And those who think the purpose of this thread is about making calls or predicting the next pullback/reversal, well, it ain't. If that's what you're into, head over to ES Journal.
I won't overstep on the poster's will to disclose more information, if he wants, he can do it himself but it was Londonkid who with very little showed me he might know a lot. Perhaps it's coincidence, time will tell.
Last edited:
Well since it was already posted, I don't think you would be stepping on anyone's toes if you simply showed the post that you are referring to. But I do believe I found it given that you named the poster. I do believe that its this post.
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...sal-or-a-pullback.297302/page-23#post-4235425
Now if this is it, then yes, it is a wise post, but at the same time, it isn't much different than the saying which says, buy low, and sell high. If you wait to enter a trend after there is huge confirmation, the price you're getting is terrible and you have missed perhaps 1/3 of the move, and you expose yourself to further and deeper pullbacks (its not like they don't happen just because price has finally taken off)
Take today for example, since many seemed to have been tooting their horn about how obvious it was that the market said go long. If you waited till RTH to look for a trade, lets not forget that at one point, the ES was at 1885, followed by a dip down to 1874. Likewise, it was also 1894, followed by a dip to 1887 (drops of 11 and 7 points). Clearly these tops would be less than ideal locations to enter and ride the trend higher, that is if you didn't want to endure such a huge drawdown.
Counter to this advice, I have read that often, the best trader is actually anticipating, and not reacting. By reacting to a move already under way, you're either chasing and having to use huge stops. You almost have to be in the trade before the move happens, in anticipation of it breaking out whichever direction your edge tells you it will.
But honestly, both of these pieces of advice are quite hollow without some examples, not only to show it, but also to trade it. I see examples over and over and over again of people making great predictions, and totally messing it up the way they trade it. So really, trading advice that doesn't actually include some form of "trade advice" is best left to the economists who love to make predictions and don't have to ever worry about being right or wrong since they aren't putting any money on the line. A trader who actually puts on a trade is a trader, not one who simply says an area looks good to take a trade or that the trend is up now.
I loved that you called me a noob since my account is older than yours.
Actually, that's very funny, so funny, I take it back
Stevie,
That's because you don't notice so it flies by you unnoticed, but believe me when I say Londonkid posted something that made me smile, again, if it was coincidence, sucks for him, if it was not, my hats off to the brit.
Furthermore, I think you demand/expect too much from seasoned posters, no one is going to throw you a so called grail (comfortable positive expectancy) setup at you just like that, that kind of system/setup whatever you want to call it, are not even for sale (because what's for sale died or sucks), you either earn them with thousands of hours of screen time or by being extremely lucky and hanging with the right person.
It's also laughable, not saying is your case, to actually believe that no one in ET is actually making consistent money from trading the markets using technical analysis because the markets, particularly index futures could not be more technical!
That's because you don't notice so it flies by you unnoticed, but believe me when I say Londonkid posted something that made me smile, again, if it was coincidence, sucks for him, if it was not, my hats off to the brit.
Furthermore, I think you demand/expect too much from seasoned posters, no one is going to throw you a so called grail (comfortable positive expectancy) setup at you just like that, that kind of system/setup whatever you want to call it, are not even for sale (because what's for sale died or sucks), you either earn them with thousands of hours of screen time or by being extremely lucky and hanging with the right person.
It's also laughable, not saying is your case, to actually believe that no one in ET is actually making consistent money from trading the markets using technical analysis because the markets, particularly index futures could not be more technical!
This isn't a direct reply to your post. But looking over today's PA reminded me of the Darvas Box. Remember the "buffer zone" that I alluded to earlier in the thread? I think Darvas Box, which is really nothing other than S/R lines, better describes what I meant by buffer zone.
