Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?

[i am nobody]

Yeah, context is everything for me...FED, Oil, China...stuff like that I can't ignore. Thus, I've very bearish until one of those three particular issues goes away.

And I am not interested in any news... Just math and if news is important I will see it in my models.... And have a stop of course.

 

[wrbtrader]

???

Some people don't work with reversals and pullbacks, but TRY (I don't say they take them) to pick the (real) bottoms and the (real) tops. They would be already long a few hours..... if they can pick the bottom. And their advantage is that if the trend reverses, they have plenty of room to decide what to do as they have a considerable profit at that moment. I try to stay out of reversals and pullbacks, and position myself before these things happen. Gives me a big advantage and buys me time.

That thought I made about "whatever trade signal" is tied in to the earlier comment I made about backtesting. My comment was made after I saw someone imply they took a trade based on a "sell" comment on a chart and they gave no other indication their trade was based on their own trade method that has been backtested.

A lot of people will take trades on information they know they do not have a complete understanding and/or they've not done any backtesting. Yet, the fact is I don't know what they were using when they say I had a trade profit or I had a trade loss and then they're wondering what did they do wrong. People that tend to ask those questions have not done any backtesting for whatever reasons.

That's the purpose of backtesting...it helps to map out how bad things can get in comparison to how good things can get so that you don't need to ask questions like that after each and every trade. Seriously, there hasn't been any discussion about backtesting or anything similar and there's already a few implying they're making "trades" on very limited info designed by the topic of the thread.

Seriously, any discussion of "trades" in this thread about anything someone states as a buy here or a sell here...those types of trades related to those specific talks should only occur after many months (not days) of testing at the minimum. This is a big problem with other threads where someone is specifically teaching their trade method at this forum...folks within days are talking about "trades they've taken" related to the content being taught. Wrong approach in my opinion especially when the trader didn't even bother to backtest the info. Soon afterwards, usually after losses, it turns into a big psssing match an nobody has posted any backtest results beyond saying

P.S. This thread is a question thread and not a trade signal teaching thread. I'm not implying the OP (thread starter) did something wrong. In contrast, I'm stating that others seem to be trying to take the thread into another direction after the OP question has already been answered in which the "trades" stuff can only be properly answered via backtesting and real time analysis/trades as such is occurring.

P.S.S. The Op has a trade journal and real time trade discussion. He must be trading pullbacks and reversals or plans on doing such.

 

[hitchslap]

No daytrader who knows the market secrets should ever have 3 losses in a row, either way.
Those in the know were buying the 1852 area a few hours ago - never mind 'pullbacks'/reversals/etc etc

 

[i am nobody]

No daytrader who knows the market secrets should ever have 3 losses in a row, either way.
Those in the know were buying the 1852 area a few hours ago - never mind 'pullbacks'/reversals/etc etc

I agree. Buy area was 1852-54. And indeed NEVER 3 losses in a row.

 

[Aj2014]

No daytrader who knows the market secrets should ever have 3 losses in a row, either way.
Those in the know were buying the 1852 area a few hours ago - never mind 'pullbacks'/reversals/etc etc

EXTREMELY impressive
And yes, the best buy would have been the 1852 area

 

[wrbtrader]

And I am not interested in any news... Just math and if news is important I will see it in my models.... And have a stop of course.

Its been important for me for +20 years...never really had any problems with using it with other resources. Yet, I do understand its not important to others because they are not using the same strategy nor same trading plan.

 

[romik]

Enough of this theoretical stuff, look at the daily chart and state your forecast - is this a pullback or a reversal?

I say it's a pullback, trend remains down.

 

[candles]

???
They would be already long a few hours

No daytrader who knows the market secrets should ever have 3 losses in a row, either way.
Those in the know were buying the 1852 area a few hours ago - never mind 'pullbacks'/reversals/etc etc

I agree. Buy area was 1852-54. And indeed NEVER 3 losses in a row.

EXTREMELY impressive
And yes, the best buy would have been the 1852 area

I agree, too. Now we are at 1877 and the low was at 1852 a few hours ago, I would also say that the 1852 was the buy

 

[romik]

Is intraday uptrend over or interrupted? I say it's over and down we head. Let's see forecasts folks, if you don't know whether it's a pullback or reversal you won't be able to trade profitably.

 

[i am nobody]

I agree, too. Now we are at 1877 and the low was at 1852 a few hours ago, I would also say that the 1852 was the buy

Study hard and long and maybe you will not have to wait till you see it in hindsight. Even in hindsight you missed the bottom.
If I would see it in hindsight I would go long at the bottom, 1851.25
Sorry that I only saw it around 52-54. Should improve my system.