Is intervention risk a meaningful consideration for a long-term trade involving Swissie or Yen?

Absolutely. A society that as ground-rule defined to care for each other and care for the environment they live in. People care for the ones next to them, they care for their environment, more so than any other nation in the world. They care about their health and well being of their bodies more so than anyone else. Honesty and moral values are celebrated to such degree that laws and regulations often times even overshoot, such as the arrest of Nissan's Ghosn. Japan is a leader or within the top 3 in most high tech sectors. Education and literacy rates are top-notch as measured in international aptitude test comparisons. Health care is top-notch. Transportation is top-notch. Check out Japanese tourists when they get to the foreign airports to wait for their flights back home. They can't get their butts fast enough back to Japan. The overall sentiment among Japanese tourists is "it's nice to explore other countries every now and then, but hell, I love my country and I can't get back fast enough to eat healthy food and breath clean air". Where are all the Japanese emigrants that left Japan to seek greener pastures? They don't exist. The last large emigration stream occurred more than a century ago when disenfranchised farmers were welcomed in Brazil to turn rain forest into farmland. Hence the surprisingly large percentage of Brazilians of Japanese origin.

Does Japan have an aging society problem? Yes, but not to the degree as American media often like to blow it out of every proportion. The main issue is of women who have a hard time to balance work-life and childcare. But even that is changing rapidly. Anyone who lives in Tokyo will nowadays often spot men who push baby carts in the morning or drop off their toddlers in kindergarten in the mornings. Japan as always is greatly misunderstood and developments are confused by those who do not expose themselves to Japanese culture but instead live outside and just pick up tidbits from media. I lived in Japan for more than a decade, speak Japanese and am married to a Japanese. We currently live in HK but travel to Japan every 3 months or so. We are in HK at the moment because we pay 15% income tax and 0% capital gains tax and its a heaven for easy and quick money. But we pay a price and we will soon leave HK because the quality of life here is alike a shithole.

I would not call Japan a moribund society - traveling to Japan from the U.S. is like going into the future - very impressive. Japan has the third largest GDP of any country.

Japan has some of the worlds most cutting edge technologies such as robotics for manufacturing, electromagnetic ultra-high speed rail to name a few.
 
Japan is nowhere dying.

I said specifically, in terms of demographics and that cannot be disputed.

Stop to get your information from slick Jewish American media outlets who constantly disseminate fake news how horrific life is outside the US, particularly they love to constantly beat on Germany and Japan.

I tried to keep it pretty fact-based in what I wrote and I think I did a fair job. Don't see how any of it relates to the all-purpose JOOS-ARE-IN-YOUR-SOUP!

Every pundit in the US sees Germany standing at the abyss.

Facts (economic indicators) seem to be pointing that Germany is already in recession. Auto sector problems are huge. Need I mention Deutsche Bank and how much major German banks are losing due to negative interest rates annually? Is all of this made up by JOOS?

Years ago they loved to declare Germany morally bankrupt for immigrating over a million refugees. What happened? Nothing.

That's an extremely debatable nothing. I wouldn't call a dramatic rise in crime, especially rape nothing. Plus welfare state consequences caused by immigration. The "new Germans" are quite different from the "old Germans" on a number of socioeconomic dimensions and if you think mass importation of them has resulted in nothing... well :)

Sure, but this is a long term problem that will play out over the next 30-50 years, it has virtually zero impact on society today.

Negative pop growth already has a huge impact.

When that happens Japan will open up more child care places and gives women more flexibility to balance work life and child care and that is when birth rates will shoot up again.

If you think the neg pop growth in Japan is due to lack of child care places that's an extremely very uninformed view.

If you get all hung up on the statistic that a few more percent of Japanese commit suicide than Americans then that itself does not point to any serious issue.

...besides obviously vividly underlining that the Japanese are not happier than Americans unless suicide is an indication of someone being happy.

Walk through Seattle and New York and see how many people smile and look content.

I've discovered this is extremely regional. Do this in Utah. I felt I wasn't in America given how happy and kind people are there.


You need to think very carefully how certain metrics are measured and who assembles statistics and what their biases and motivations are.

Let me guess. JOOS? :)

Also a big issue is that the definition of happiness in each society is different which makes comparisons across a single definition very error prone.

Well, I agree happiness is not an exact science but the annual studies they do it every year are extremely legit and designed by very respected scientists from many countries. Wait... JOOS? :D
 
I have a lot of long term positions in various fx crosses, including JPY,CHF. If you carefully size your net exposures and diversify then you should be able to survive central bank interventions. I use the 2015 CHF dislocation as a stress test.

What instruments do you use for long-term positions? Spot? Do you just pay negative carry?
 
Not sure such approach to trading makes sense. If major central bank interventions cause meaningful shifts in fundamentals (which they do) then any meaningful size will expose one to unecessey exposure and hence risk. Relatively small sizes (relative to AUM) do not make a dent and hence are meaningless to trade.

Interventions tend to be (always?) against fundamentals. They don't change really change the fundamentals. They obviously change supply and demand which changes price. If they spend enough reserves on the intervention then I guess in that sense that changes fundamentals but that takes time.
 
I like Anthony Bourdains's view on Tokyo, I think he nailed it.


I wish he was just a little more specific.

P.S. Since GRULSTMRNN liked this is it safe to assume that this particular Jew was not part of the JOOS worldwide conspiracy? :D

P.P.S. Wait, I think I get it. It wasn't suicide. JOOS killed him for the grand betrayal of telling the truth about Japan!!@@@
 
What instruments do you use for long-term positions? Spot? Do you just pay negative carry?
Spot FX. I just pay negative carry if I happen to be positioned as such. But I avoid trading the high carry stuff like TRY, MXN, ZAR long or short.
 
I wish he was just a little more specific.

P.S. Since GRULSTMRNN liked this is it safe to assume that this particular Jew was not part of the JOOS worldwide conspiracy? :D

P.P.S. Wait, I think I get it. It wasn't suicide. JOOS killed him for the grand betrayal of telling the truth about Japan!!@@@
Stop being mean to GRULSTMRNN. He will pout and leave the thread! :D
Why?
I don't relish being short those and getting debited a not insignificant swap rate. Plus some of those exotics experience a CHF style dislocation more often than I like.
 
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