Is intervention risk a meaningful consideration for a long-term trade involving Swissie or Yen?
- Thread starter lentus
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Not from intervention originating from the Swiss National Bank or the Bank of Japan
The Yen is stuck in limbo courtesy of a moribund society with a flatlining economy, and the Franc is strong thanks to the nefarious machinations of the ECB and the EU
And the US infrastructure is crumbling and people perform in the low tier on almost every metric in comparison to all other industrialized nations.
What do you even mean with the BS you are saying? Japan a moribund society? Have you ever been to Japan? Why don't you check out the cars on the road in Tokyo,the quality of apartments, the food people eat, the health of the average person in Tokyo,the happiness level, the lack of violence, the level of education and then you compare that with the average New Yorker or person in LA. I am not even mentioning all the shit hole cities in US. And before you get all hung up on your age and birth BS, maybe you want to think why that is the case and perhaps understand that to a large degree birth rates are higher in countries that have high levels of immigration especially of those of the Muslim faith and Asians (ex Japan) in general, who breed like crazy (particularly Indians) and that Japan made a conscious choose to rather have lower birth rates than shit people with low levels of education and no willingness to assimilate.
That aside, how does a flatlining economy cause a strong yen? Makes zero sense other than through the explanation of you talking out of your ass. Posting BS is easy, thinking beforehand not so.
What do you even mean with the BS you are saying? Japan a moribund society? Have you ever been to Japan? Why don't you check out the cars on the road in Tokyo,the quality of apartments, the food people eat, the health of the average person in Tokyo,the happiness level, the lack of violence, the level of education and then you compare that with the average New Yorker or person in LA. I am not even mentioning all the shit hole cities in US. And before you get all hung up on your age and birth BS, maybe you want to think why that is the case and perhaps understand that to a large degree birth rates are higher in countries that have high levels of immigration especially of those of the Muslim faith and Asians (ex Japan) in general, who breed like crazy (particularly Indians) and that Japan made a conscious choose to rather have lower birth rates than shit people with low levels of education and no willingness to assimilate.
That aside, how does a flatlining economy cause a strong yen? Makes zero sense other than through the explanation of you talking out of your ass. Posting BS is easy, thinking beforehand not so.
Not from intervention originating from the Swiss National Bank or the Bank of Japan
The Yen is stuck in limbo courtesy of a moribund society with a flatlining economy, and the Franc is strong thanks to the nefarious machinations of the ECB and the EU
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Not from intervention originating from the Swiss National Bank or the Bank of Japan
The Yen is stuck in limbo courtesy of a moribund society with a flatlining economy, and the Franc is strong thanks to the nefarious machinations of the ECB and the EU
I'm not sure what you're referring to. The last Swissie intervention was to devalue the Swissie and the drop of the floor resulted in the most violent intervention-related trading in FX ever.
I think he wrote that in a drunk stupor. No other logical explanation. A strong yen is because of a flight for safety and because the yen and the Japanese economy are perceived as rock solid. Check out how usdchf trades each time there is an equity melt down. The pair drops like a stone,hence swissie is perceived as the same flight to safety currency as the yen. But that is probably hard to see for someone who lives in the Louisiana swamps and has never ventured out of his state.
Kind off topic but looking to learn.
1. I've heard about infrastructure crumbling but I don't see it. What's crumbling exactly? And what are we comparing the infrastructure to? Zimbabwe or Switzerland?
2. Performance on what metrics? You mean education tests or something like that?
3. Japan is absolutely moribund, in fact dying in terms of demographics. Maybe that's what bone was referring to.
4. Regarding happiness of U.S. vs Japan that's simply incorrect. US=19 Japan=58. There is a ton of suicides, male incels, etc. It's far from a psychological paradise.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/happiness-report/2019/WHR19.pdf
No question swissie and yen are risk-off.
I thought I made all those points clear. We need to compare apples with apples. I compare American bridges, roads, ports, airports with the ones in Germany, Holland, Belgium, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Switzerland. Ever been to JFK and compared that airport to Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore? Then you know what I mean. Flying in the US is a daily struggle and gamble for those flying a lot for business. Nobody knows whether they catch the flight, whether it is hugely delayed or cancelled, whether you have total maniacs on board or not. Having lived in Japan and HK and flown a lot I had one missed flight in the past 15 years (and yes, I consider myself very lucky and know that flights to the mainland are often delayed and cancelled, but then mainland is not HK) and ironically the flight I missed was a connecting flight in Auckland to Christchurch that I missed because my incoming flight from HK was delayed. But air travel is pleasant and professional in other developed economies outside the US. That is the infrastructure I compare to.
I also listed a number of metrics. Can you read my post again?
Japan is nowhere dying. Again, travel to Tokyo and see for yourself. You are dreaming. Even in the worst time during the past 2008 financial crisis, life in Tokyo would have never given anyone the impression of a financial crisis while there was sheer panic everywhere in the US. Stop to get your information from slick Jewish American media outlets who constantly disseminate fake news how horrific life is outside the US, particularly they love to constantly beat on Germany and Japan. Read the news in the US right now about Germany. Every pundit in the US sees Germany standing at the abyss. The economy is collapsing, mass firings of employees. Nothing of that is true, not even remotely true. Years ago they loved to declare Germany morally bankrupt for immigrating over a million refugees. What happened? Nothing. A few incidents here and there but on a grand scale they were integrated. Low birth rates in Japan? Sure, but this is a long term problem that will play out over the next 30-50 years, it has virtually zero impact on society today. Japan is a society that makes drastic changes 5 minutes before 12. When that happens Japan will open up more child care places and gives women more flexibility to balance work life and child care and that is when birth rates will shoot up again. Don't we love a good American BS story that is neither informed nor understanding of the underlying issues. Americans love to live on the edge. Its always either total victory or total destruction. Seems there is no middle ground for some.
Goodness, there are not many suicides, not in terms of absolute numbers. If you get all hung up on the statistic that a few more percent of Japanese commit suicide than Americans then that itself does not point to any serious issue. How about if I told you that there are 200% more cases of killed Americans who masturbated while hiking on a trail than Japanese? Shocking right and an important problem right? What if I told you that there were 25,000 such tragic deaths in a society of 300 million? Not such a hot topic anymore right? The total suicide rate in Japan is 0.002% per year. Wow. Not saying we should not care about societal issues but suicide rates have zero impact on the aging problem, nor on the economy, nor on the Japanese yen, and particularly not on the overall happiness of the population at large. Walk through Seattle and New York and see how many people smile and look content. Do the same in the countryside. Then compare with Japan. Day and night difference. You need to think very carefully how certain metrics are measured and who assembles statistics and what their biases and motivations are. Also a big issue is that the definition of happiness in each society is different which makes comparisons across a single definition very error prone. I prefer to measure happiness by looking at the contentment in people inside each nation, how eager a population is to stay in its own country rather than live and work elsewhere, how eager tourists are to return to their home countries, how people conduct themselves in public and with which demeanor. That imho paints a much clearer picture at general happiness.
I also listed a number of metrics. Can you read my post again?
Japan is nowhere dying. Again, travel to Tokyo and see for yourself. You are dreaming. Even in the worst time during the past 2008 financial crisis, life in Tokyo would have never given anyone the impression of a financial crisis while there was sheer panic everywhere in the US. Stop to get your information from slick Jewish American media outlets who constantly disseminate fake news how horrific life is outside the US, particularly they love to constantly beat on Germany and Japan. Read the news in the US right now about Germany. Every pundit in the US sees Germany standing at the abyss. The economy is collapsing, mass firings of employees. Nothing of that is true, not even remotely true. Years ago they loved to declare Germany morally bankrupt for immigrating over a million refugees. What happened? Nothing. A few incidents here and there but on a grand scale they were integrated. Low birth rates in Japan? Sure, but this is a long term problem that will play out over the next 30-50 years, it has virtually zero impact on society today. Japan is a society that makes drastic changes 5 minutes before 12. When that happens Japan will open up more child care places and gives women more flexibility to balance work life and child care and that is when birth rates will shoot up again. Don't we love a good American BS story that is neither informed nor understanding of the underlying issues. Americans love to live on the edge. Its always either total victory or total destruction. Seems there is no middle ground for some.
Goodness, there are not many suicides, not in terms of absolute numbers. If you get all hung up on the statistic that a few more percent of Japanese commit suicide than Americans then that itself does not point to any serious issue. How about if I told you that there are 200% more cases of killed Americans who masturbated while hiking on a trail than Japanese? Shocking right and an important problem right? What if I told you that there were 25,000 such tragic deaths in a society of 300 million? Not such a hot topic anymore right? The total suicide rate in Japan is 0.002% per year. Wow. Not saying we should not care about societal issues but suicide rates have zero impact on the aging problem, nor on the economy, nor on the Japanese yen, and particularly not on the overall happiness of the population at large. Walk through Seattle and New York and see how many people smile and look content. Do the same in the countryside. Then compare with Japan. Day and night difference. You need to think very carefully how certain metrics are measured and who assembles statistics and what their biases and motivations are. Also a big issue is that the definition of happiness in each society is different which makes comparisons across a single definition very error prone. I prefer to measure happiness by looking at the contentment in people inside each nation, how eager a population is to stay in its own country rather than live and work elsewhere, how eager tourists are to return to their home countries, how people conduct themselves in public and with which demeanor. That imho paints a much clearer picture at general happiness.
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I have a lot of long term positions in various fx crosses, including JPY,CHF. If you carefully size your net exposures and diversify then you should be able to survive central bank interventions. I use the 2015 CHF dislocation as a stress test.
Not sure such approach to trading makes sense. If major central bank interventions cause meaningful shifts in fundamentals (which they do) then any meaningful size will expose one to unecessey exposure and hence risk. Relatively small sizes (relative to AUM) do not make a dent and hence are meaningless to trade.