Is high inflation coming after this crisis??

Quote from deswamped:

I am going to be far more lazier on this one

I'm regretting at all... always like a good exchange of ideas :(

"but the output of labour is not costant."

constant enough over one, two, three or so trade cycles to be neglible enough to not be a concern
According with my System's Theory teacher, we should be more concerned with stable state (final) result than with transition behaviour (at first glance). I know, in the long run we'll be all dead. But isn't the system behaviour more important than single steps it follow during its evolution, if this evolution is well described by system design?


Deriviatives blah blah are just another echelon of efficiency. And the rule goes, with more effiency and specialisation we get higher highs and lower lows as far as overtrading and undertrading are concerned.
You should explain better, because seems to me that more boom and bust is not inherently linked to more output.


yes yes, life is not fair. Because human beings are not fair on an individual level.
Fairness is not my first concern, however it is high in my values ranking.
But I was applying a sistemic reasoning, my concern is that when the design of economic system counterbalance human defects (even partially) the whole system evolution could be more far from self-destruction.



Inflation does cause inequalities per distribution sequence, and no doubt the capitalists and government are quite in league with that... but then just imagine how much they are losing now from this deflation?

I feel deflation could be useful when inflation (we already had) move work (people efforts) from productive work to unproductive (parasite) work, from making something exchangeable (as in barter) to find a way to trade something at a price higher than its real value, often manipulating people psychology or currency value.


ummm.. importing from china is a good thing. It is cheap. basically if everything is free to run its own course as per allowing people to work in their most beneficial role, then that is the best possible outcome economically. As for whether one country performs better than another, that is quite simply up to each individual.
Maybe individual behaviour is not enough. Individual behaviour is extremely conditioned by other people behaviour, and by environment in which they move. The system: rules, convinctions, belief, traditions, customs, rites (starting point and inner laws of the system).

But think of this: if there is unemployment in US due to outsourcing to far-east, this is not an underperforming of whole system?
Why lower wage output should not going to lower income people (ie far-east people) AND higher wage output isn't going to high wage people (US-citizens)?
The whole world output is far more when both workers work (more total output to subdivide) than allowing jobs move from rich to poor countries.

Why the system is so far from full employment? Is distance raising?
Why the system works in this irrational way?


we are seeeing is a new move into the age of aquarius. a new way. an empire withers, a new one is created from the ashes.
A better one? Who assure it? Past knowledge? Maybe we have to start from what we know? Maybe we have to understand better what we do?
 
Quote from deswamped:

hmm im having trouble getting that...can you reiterate

I don't know if I'm able to make a understandable example.

I'm thinking on it. Stay tuned.
 
Quote from HomoSalmon:

I'm regretting at all... always like a good exchange of ideas :(



hmm i will try and answer some of your questions tomorrow if i can...

the way you ask them does my head in.... im not a systems type thinker ok.... i am a subconcious intutitive one....so its a bit hard for me

I will give it a shot
 
I think that there is enough evidence to justify saying there is going to be fairly high inflation following this recession.

A very large factor in inflation is expected inflation. I think that just given the fact that enough people already believe inflation will happen is enough to assume it will. It is basically a self fulfilling prophecy.
 
Quote from SkilledLabor:

I think that there is enough evidence to justify saying there is going to be fairly high inflation following this recession.

A very large factor in inflation is expected inflation. I think that just given the fact that enough people already believe inflation will happen is enough to assume it will. It is basically a self fulfilling prophecy.
"People" (the market) expect annualized 1.35% CPI over the next 10 years. That's certainly not high by any definition.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE10:IND
 
Quote from jueco2005:

I think I understand fiat currency.

Let me see..........the fed has more than doubled its balanced sheet.......wont that be inflationary.

Good. Now you've answered your own question. Go to the head of the class and stick a gold star on your forehead.:D
 
Thats govt statistics, you need to tenfold that 1.35% to make realistic expectations.

Quote from kashirin:

what do people (market) had expected 2 years ago for S&P target in 1 year?
 
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