is google really worth $300-350 a share?

Google is part of our lives. Integrated into our online experience and advertisors know that. So, I would say yes, it's worth this much.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I think keyser makes some very powerful points. As much as I hate doing it, I have to say Jim Cramer is right when he says buy best of breed, which GOOG clearly is. Who knows what they come up with next?

Also, it seems to me that much of the consternation over GOOG concerns the $300 per share price. If it was $30 per share, I doubt anyone would be so worked up about it. So if they had issued 10 times as much stock, it would just be another $30 tech stock that had run up a lot. No hype, no handwringing.
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MKT CAP is where I see the problem ...not that its $30.00 or $300.00...$80 billion..the question is...How many billions is hype?? peace
 
Quote from keyser1:

I'm long & overweight (about 30% of portfolio) on google and here's why --

I think conservatively google will be valued at 360 in febuary 06 (after end of year earnings are announced). I think at the absolutely min, it'll be a 250 stock, and it can potentially top 700+ (although I wouldn't bet on that, like I said I see 360 being a conservative estimate)

So why do I like google (as a company) --
--They have the best search algorithm around. When they first developed it it blew away the competition. I haven't kept up with search/database industry research but I would guess that they've improved it since developing the idea.
--They hire the best people in the industry (the software industry has alot of brilliant people around and google hires the best)
--Pretty much every major product they've developed (search engine, mapping software, web mail) is better than anyone else's. This is a trend I see continuing.
--They seem to have a quality over quantity culture. You don't see them clogging up their website with subpar features. They're taking their time in becoming a one-stop portal.
--Online advertising is expecting to grow at high rates over the next decade.
--They're able to come up with new ideas on how to generate revenue (eg. quest to become an ad-broker so to speak).
--"google" is now a verb ("I googled ___." ) Thats gotta have some value. I even heard a radio host say "I googled ___. I went to yahoo and --" So even though he yahoo'd it, he thought that google'd = searched. Being a verb/noun (tivo, q-tip, rollerblade) can't hurt.

Why do I like the stock (other reasons) --
--Relative to its peers, institutions are underweight in google. That leaves a decent room for increased demand. Also the inevitable S&P factor (I wouldn't want to be short this stock the day S&P is announced).
--Its blew by earnings in the past, and I expect it to do the same in the future. It gives no earnings guidance so plenty of upside potential (also added downside potential but I think most analysts are likely to be conservative when they're completely guessing).

What I don't like about the stock --
I think recent run-up has been too quick. Would've preferred a more gradual build up (although I made big money on goog options when it went from 220 to 260 so I shouldn't complain too much in addition to the unrealized gain on my stock).

Bottom line is: I think from now until late 2006 goog is going to be a real bull (late 2006 new windows comes out with integrated web search capabilities..the only thing that I can see as having potential to eat away from goog's user base). I'm still deciding on whether to play the long-call options game with goog though cuz compared to other company's options, goog's seem signicant overpriced.

Second bottom line: Although I would love a trend reversal and to see this stock go back down to 230 (with no fundamental difference). If this were to happen, I would double down on margin.
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this is interesting. sounds just like 1999. through the years there is always one or two stocks crowned the trader must have(trade)stocks in play at any one time. the first one i remember was iomega, then intc,then dell, then csco, then aol, then qcom,then yhoo, then jdsu,then jnpr then nvda,now we have rimm,cme,tazr. there were many more but these are ones just off the top of my head. study those charts. common theme is they all dropped at least 50% when the game ended. its all a matter of timing. dont fall in love with a stock.
 
It seems to make sense to simply buy only the hottest stocks, make some good money over a few months, sell to cover the basis, and then ride it a little more.

Why the hell should I even bother to "invest"?
 
Riskmanager,

I have no problem with you picking apart my comments but I think you may have me pegged incorrectly (but then again maybe you analyzed me just right and i just don't know it)...

you made a, matter of fact, risky decision. And we humans just hate the possibility to have made a wrong decision, now don't we? One way to solve this so-called cognitive dissonance is by justifying it to others. You basically build your own reality consisting of "yeah"-sayers. That's how the internet bubble fueled and refueled itself. Let's move on.
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Yes I consiously made a decision to take on more risk than the average investor. I would definitely prefer to make the right decision, but if i'm wrong on goog and I lose 80% of my investment its not going to affect my current lifestyle. I've prior invested in companies that have gone up 10 fold, but I've also invested in a company that went bankrupt and one that went down 80% (although most investments are in the middle). I am readily aware that goog is now a high risk company with alot of potential to disappoint.

Plenty of presuppositions here. I honestly believe you that you're convinced of what you wrote. This is called self-hypnosis (I'm serious).
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Isn't all price forecasting based on presuppositions? Don't see how mine is any different

mean like, it'd be a problem to sell it with a loss for you if the scenario above (i.e. your subjective future reality) didn't come true?
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Whats wrong with being a fan of a company's products? I do realize that companies can make good products and be horrible investments. And no, I won't have a problem selling at a loss, or selling if my subjective future reality doesn't come true.

You should like a woman's pu**y
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Something we agree on!!

above are all nonsensical justifications
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The reasons I stated aren't the reasons why I think the stock is at 360 by feb, but rather they are general reasons why goog is a great company. And as long as it remains a great company, it will *probably* have a great stock.

"If it rose for such a long time, there's no reason for it not to rise further."
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Have you also already made plans about what to do with your current and your future paper gains?
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My belief that goog is going to continue to rise is not based on the fact that it rose for the past 9 months. I didn't calculate my 8 month price estimate based on past trajectory. My current mode is "hold". I would love to play off the volatility but my lack of skill to predict 5-10 point up/down swings isn't worth the risk of missing a big jump. However, things change all the time, and I will reconsider my position whenever news comes out.

"Never confuse ingenuity with a bull market"
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Good point, I've done pretty well overall in my 3 years in the market and I hope it hasn't given me a false sense of confidence; cuz its entirely within the realm of decent probability that I have indeed been lucky.
 
Quote from keyser1:

Riskmanager,

I have no problem with you picking apart my comments but I think you may have me pegged incorrectly (but then again maybe you analyzed me just right and i just don't know it)...


Yes I consiously made a decision to take on more risk than the average investor. I would definitely prefer to make the right decision, but if i'm wrong on goog and I lose 80% of my investment its not going to affect my current lifestyle. I've prior invested in companies that have gone up 10 fold, but I've also invested in a company that went bankrupt and one that went down 80% (although most investments are in the middle). I am readily aware that goog is now a high risk company with alot of potential to disappoint.


Isn't all price forecasting based on presuppositions? Don't see how mine is any different


Whats wrong with being a fan of a company's products? I do realize that companies can make good products and be horrible investments. And no, I won't have a problem selling at a loss, or selling if my subjective future reality doesn't come true.


Something we agree on!!


The reasons I stated aren't the reasons why I think the stock is at 360 by feb, but rather they are general reasons why goog is a great company. And as long as it remains a great company, it will *probably* have a great stock.



My belief that goog is going to continue to rise is not based on the fact that it rose for the past 9 months. I didn't calculate my 8 month price estimate based on past trajectory. My current mode is "hold". I would love to play off the volatility but my lack of skill to predict 5-10 point up/down swings isn't worth the risk of missing a big jump. However, things change all the time, and I will reconsider my position whenever news comes out.


Good point, I've done pretty well overall in my 3 years in the market and I hope it hasn't given me a false sense of confidence; cuz its entirely within the realm of decent probability that I have indeed been lucky.
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Congratulations man, I wish I had been as open to a contrary opinion six years ago as you are now. Would have saved me a good amount of nerves, to put it mildly.

Basically, all I wanted to hammer into your conscious awareness is this:

Place your stop loss orders and do not touch them afterwards. If you take care of your losses, your gains will take care of themselves.

Cheers!
 
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