Is GOLD (/silver/etc) a bubble?

Is GOLD (/silver/etc) a bubble?

  • Yes

    Votes: 18 31.0%

  • No

    Votes: 40 69.0%
  • Total voters
    58
Quote from moo:

That must be a rhetorical question.

Of course gold, as priced in dollars, will shoot up, if the euro bounces. Since that means the dollar is going down.
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I ment how Euro gold will react.

AUD Gold dropped 30% in 2009...

People have been calling for gold to decouple from all currencies for ages now.

It's simultaneous rise with the USD might suggest we might be reaching such a point indeed.
 
Quote from makloda:

So was the binary decision of either going long gold vs. investing in hedge funds an "edge" at that point in history? Probably you don't think it was, but that's what the discussion was about.
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I can imagine a strategy based on value that would have been long gold back then and holding for years e.g. based on the extreme Dow/gold ratio. I can also imagine a strategy that would have gone long based on it going into a long-term bull market from a purely technical perspective. Or one based on it being a loathed asset at the time, totally off the radar of investors. Since these 3 things seem to be pretty common at the early stage of long-term bull markets, it doesn't seem implausible that there would be one or more strategies based around them that would indeed have an edge.

The history of those factors signalling bull markets is far longer and better established than the outperformance of hedge funds, after all.
 
Quote from makloda:

If you believe that "normal" markets don't correct 50% very often then I only suggest to you to devote time and effort studying historical commodity charts (not commodity indexes but individual markets). Over the last four decades, 50% corrections did happen and do happen all the time across different markets and most of them would not fit the popular burst bubble description you are so fond of.

I explained in detail why I believe you are wrong with your assumptions how spotting bubbles constitutes an edge. Yet you constantly choose to ignore all points I made (without counterarguments) and reply as naively as if that prior discussion never took place. So why bother replying to me? Put me on your ignore list so we both don't waste our time.
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The fact that normal markets can and do fall 50% from time to time does not mean it's useless to know that a bubble is in progress. Knowing that would only be useless if the probability of a 50% fall after a bubble were similar to the probability of a 50% fall from a normal market state. Whereas bubbles have a far higher probability of big subsequent falls than normal markets. Knowing that gives you a big edge - you know that strategies or asset which profit from big downside outlier moves will likely perform far better than normal.

To disagree with me, you have to think that normal markets are just as certain to have huge collapses as bubbles - a dubious claim which is contradicted by at least a century of financial market data.

I don't remember any additional points you made against the usefulness of spotting bubbles apart from this one, can you remember or link the post?
 
Gold stocks remain to lag just a little bit considering golds strength as of late.

Maybe they catch up once we get above 1200$ again.
 
One gold mining stock that has been beating the price of gold (on a percentage basis) is TRE - Tanzanian Royalty Exploration.

The nice thing about the miners is that they are essentially getting more money for doing the same amount of work as the price of gold rises (even slowly).
 
Nice strength in the face of consolidating stockmarkets.

Euro gold continues to reach record highs also.

Costs almost 900 Euro now per ounce with a 4% premium that is, which is the cheapest available.
 
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