Is DOW 11,000 A Bull Trap?"

[shortie]

Quote from Lojanica:

4/19

i have bookmarked your post!

 

[shortie]

Euro-Zone Nations Offer $40 Billion to Greece
New York Times - 3 hours ago
By STEPHEN CASTLE BRUSSELS - A financial rescue of the debt-laden Greek economy moved into focus Sunday when the 16 nations that use the euro offered to loan Athens up to €30 billion at rates far below what the debt-laden country is paying now.


this must be "sell the news" play on Mon. we could pop up higher on Mon before crashing, but i think the pop-up already happened last week.

 

[just21]

Quote from shortie:

This is the ad i got from IB:
"IB Lends at Just 1.25%
While the Fed is lending money at almost zero interest rates, why not take advantage of it through IB? Interactive Brokers will lend up to $566,000 at 1.25% for every $100,000 in a Portfolio Margin4 Securities Trading account. As of 4/5/2010, more than 500 stocks had a dividend yield of 5% or more. "

So, one puts int 100K and get to play with 566K "to buy stocks yielding 5%" 5-1.25=3.75% or more of the "free return" per year. with 5.66 leverage one gets 5.66*3.75%= ~21% - that's a very nice ROI!!

naturally, IB has all kinds of disclaimers about the risks associated with margin, etc. so the people are properly informed. I have no quarrel with IB here. It is not about IB at all. To me, the ad captures the spirit of what's been going on for the last year with all the cheap money floating around: borrow cheap money, load up on stocks, sit out small corrections and reap huge ROI either from stock price appreciation or from dividends.

the behavior has been reinforced by the more than a year of the biggest bull run ever. some day it has to stop or it will get punished. since the interest rates are not going up any time soon, the risky behavior won't stop voluntarily. the punishment will come with a correction sharp enough to hurt many overleveraged bulls.

Can you buy bonds on portfolio margin?

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from shortie:

Euro-Zone Nations Offer $40 Billion to Greece
New York Times - 3 hours ago
By STEPHEN CASTLE BRUSSELS - A financial rescue of the debt-laden Greek economy moved into focus Sunday when the 16 nations that use the euro offered to loan Athens up to €30 billion at rates far below what the debt-laden country is paying now.


this must be "sell the news" play on Mon. we could pop up higher on Mon before crashing, but i think the pop-up already happened last week.

Just curious, but at what point will you have exhausted your account with these top calls that fail over and over again?

 

[just21]

Market has been bouncing at the 200 sma on the hourly charts. The last time the market was up six weeks in a row was exactly a year ago going into options expiration when the market advance stalled for a week.

 

[shortie]

could somebody explain to me how a fledgling economy could even hope to grow with gas prices at 2007 level? right now we have 9.7% unemployed. what happens to the gas prices when/if those people get jobs and start driving? what happens to the economic prospects when the gas goes even higher?

 

[S2007S]

Quote from shortie:

could somebody explain to me how a fledgling economy could even hope to grow with gas prices at 2007 level? right now we have 9.7% unemployed. what happens to the gas prices when/if those people get jobs and start driving? what happens to the economic prospects when the gas goes even higher?

Once all 20 million are back working, GDP growing at double digits, houses being sold in hours of being listed, oil should easily be $200-$300 a barrel, no one will complain about $6-$7 at the pump because everyone will be happy that they have a job. Everyone will be happy with $200+ oil because it will signify how strong and optimistic the economy is.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

could somebody explain to me how a fledgling economy could even hope to grow with gas prices at 2007 level? right now we have 9.7% unemployed. what happens to the gas prices when/if those people get jobs and start driving? what happens to the economic prospects when the gas goes even higher?

gas price can easily go up $1 by summer because of the seasonal demand. so we could have gas/oil prices comparable to 2008. :eek:

this must put a dent into the stock market, so why is it going up every day? this is a purely crazy momentum driven rally totally detached from the fundamentals. such rallies are known to have existed. kudos to those who knows when to jump on/off board.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from shortie:

gas price can easily go up $1 by summer because of the seasonal demand. so we could have gas/oil prices comparable to 2008. :eek:

this must put a dent into the stock market, so why is it going up every day? this is a purely crazy momentum driven rally totally detached from the fundamentals. such rallies are known to have existed. kudos to those who knows when to jump on/off board.

I don't know why you don't get it. It's going up because of FREE MONEY by the Fed and Banana Ben. Where else is it going to go? Asset classes!

 

[S2007S]

Oil moving higher tonight, if markets lift up another 1-2% this week oil is going to break out with it. Futures up about 4/10ths, by tomorrow morning 1%+ bubble ben bernanke better get move on it with raising these rates. It is now at the point where these 0% rates are doing more harm than good.