Is Daytrading a Random Event?

I am just a doorman who trades in the morning before work. I earn much more trading than as a doorman, but I like my regular job too and I really don't like trading because it is stressful. I do it for the money.

99.9% of the people who post here are smarter than me. I can't figure out all those analytics so I don't use any. I have no idea how to trade gaps or news, when I see what I think is good news the market goes down as often as up. I'm just can't figure it out.

I never keep a stock overnight because I have no idea what is going to happen. I just notice that some stocks look too low or too high, so I trade against that. I pay myself my profit at the end of each week, because if I have too much money in my account I get cocky and can't trade right.

I haven't figured out if the markets are random or not, so I'm sorry I can't make a contribution on that.
 
breakout thank you for the post. definitely nothing personal. of course the random debate is not going to be well received on a trader's forum. however, there is not one person who trades that doesn't internally debate this issue at times. i can understand that the people who bash me are emotional as most traders are, but spare me your speculation of my personality and financial situation.

here's what i've concluded:
1)put on a trade long or short you've got a 50-50 shot
2)with the resources of market makers and specialists who you
compete with and your odds drop.
3)market makers and specialists are much more sophisticated
than people think. they are able to exploit daytraders fears
and weaknesses.
4)even though i shake my head at daytraders and i used to laugh
at them they provide a liquidity function that is so important.
5)i respect their attempts at trading the markets but i feel it is
futile

posters can say what you want and insult me all you want about confidence and all the other derogatory garbage. but you know my argument is valid whether or not you agree with it
 
Originally posted by cmz1



posters can say what you want and insult me all you want about confidence and all the other derogatory garbage. but you know my argument is valid whether or not you agree with it
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who is insulting you with derogatory garbage?

don't you think that saying "hey all you guys i happen to know that what you are doing is futile" is a bit pompous on your end? are you surprised to be challenged?

and what argument have you made? i still say you have voiced opinions but not said anything.

1) without an edge, your chance at profit is LESS than 50/50 because of costs. you need an edge to overcome setbacks AND costs.

2)market makers and specialists have always been around, either your edge overcomes them or it doesn't, period.

3) market makers and specialists exploit fears and weaknesses, so what, again the point of an edge is overcoming that process, either you do or you don't.

4) daytraders provide liquidity, okay great.

5) you still have not made a "valid argument" for why it is futile, you have only listed reasons why most people fail, but most is not all. "Most" people fail at anything they try that is brutally tough and competitive. The existence of long lasting successful traders refutes your "observations." Why do you persist in saying its futile? Where is your evidence?
 
to compare this with other fields is wrong. persistence and a competitive drive mean absolute crap. my evidence is in the fact that most people fail. so if the odds against making it are so significant, than why waste money and time. why are so many prop firms with such "great" traders failing. every system has failed.

is there ever certainty when one puts on a trade other than hope. i say not.
 
saying that trading is futile is not pompous, but just an observation. it has nothing to do with me or arrogance.
 
Originally posted by cmz1
to compare this with other fields is wrong. persistence and a competitive drive mean absolute crap. my evidence is in the fact that most people fail. so if the odds against making it are so significant, than why waste money and time. why are so many prop firms with such "great" traders failing. every system has failed.

is there ever certainty when one puts on a trade other than hope. i say not.
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The certainty is in the outcome of a thousand trades, not one ...
 
Originally posted by cmz1
my evidence is in the fact that most people fail. so if the odds against making it are so significant, than why waste money and time.
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This is so emotionally driven, you have no substance behind this. I'm still waiting for some logical point on your part, ANY point, besides the obvious and useless statement that lots of people fail.

The odds of success at trading are similar to the odds of launching a successful new business. Should entrepreneurs throw in the towel?

The odds of success at trading are similar to the odds of sticking to a diet. Should overweight people give in and drown their sorrow with a tub of Haagen Das?

It has always been the case that a minority of individuals possess the talent, drive and knowledge to accomplish things that the majority cannot.

"Most people fail" does not equal "trading is impossible."

"Markets are mostly random" does not equal "markets are totally random."

You do not have an argument, you only have bitterness. Stop moping, just because you can't hack it don't say that it's impossible.

I can't resist quoting Marty Schwartz' from Pit Bull here:

"....I hate negative thinkers, they are such losers."
 
"The odds of success at trading are similar to the odds of launching a successful new business. Should entrepreneurs throw in the towel?"

since you are so insistent that he provide proof of his position, i'd like to see YOUR proof that the difficulty in achieving consistent trading success equates to launching "successful new business" ventures (whatever that is). let's see the proof. that the odds of success of one is reasonably equal to the other.

btw, in your 10+ odd posts i seem to have missed your evidence that the market is not random. after all that IS the topic of this thread. all i've seen from you are cute little maxims and proverbs culled from popular literature and a little feet stomping.. not a very compelling argument
 
First, I would assume most people would agree that Poker is a game of skill, not luck. This is the reason it is legal to play in states that do not have gambling. Have you ever noticed that the same players end up in the high rounds of the poker championship in Vegas? This is not luck. They can take their hand and beat you or take your hand and beat their hand with you holding it. This is basic common sense. I really don't understand why anyone cannot grasp this concept.

It is much easier to determine the direction of a stock in the short term than the long term. Did anyone think that INTEL was going to go up after the announcement on Thursday? With all of the potential geo political problems in the world and the market nervous as hell there is no way INTEL was going to "run", LOL.

For long term people have invested in Kmart and ignored the competition of Walmart, in Tyco & Enron and found out they are crooks, in Etoys and found out the business plan was flawed. I could make the argument that the famous "buy and hold" strategy is flawed and could be no better than "luck". If one does not understand this concept and why it has changed needs to take a course in economics, get off his mothers computer and go finish his homework. Xerox and Polaroid are just two examples! LTV and the "Fund of Funds" are two more.

Most daytraders who approach the market with a war like attitude and are going to "rule the freaking market" are doomed to failure. Not trying to "rule" just ride along for the small profit and then exit with some money in my pocket.

Baseball is a very simple step, "see the ball, hit the ball". Does not matter how you do it. Watch how many different stance there are. But they all "see the ball". If you can't "see" you can't "hit". Same with daytrading. As they say "trade what you SEE, NOT what you THINK!!!

IMHO
 
i am not negative, i am realistic. equating a business venture with trading is flawed. no business has constant wild price swings in their products or inventory. having a positive attitude when your in a business venture will improve your odds of success (customers will want to do business with you, etc.). whereas, having a positive cheerful attitude as a daytrader will do nothing to improve your odds in the market.
 
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