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No. Your SWINGTRADING sucks. If you're worrying about gaps you're holding overnight and you're not daytrading..... So maybe your daytrading is not so bad after all
Is Daytrading a Random Event?
- Thread starter LelandC
- Start date
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No. Your SWINGTRADING sucks. If you're worrying about gaps you're holding overnight and you're not daytrading..... So maybe your daytrading is not so bad after all
This does happen all the time, and it is random from the point of view of the daytrader, but if the whole block didn't go off at one price, what makes you think that anyone would sit there and watch a seller offer stock all the way down without anyone noticing it?Thanks for making the true basis of your argument clear. I guess it turns out that you're not really a "random walker," after all.
It seems pretty obvious to me that, whatever edge you seek to exploit, your chances of being successful with it will be hurt by the attitude that you're bound to fail. Indeed, one of the primary reasons I responded to your earlier posts was my own still painful recollection of death spiral periods (plunging confidence joined to plunging acct. equity) during which I was very unsure that I (or anyone but the "lucky") COULD trade effectively.
Maybe your background has given you too much knowledge of a certain kind: You're too aware of what could go against you. Though some adjustments, or even a radical overhaul, of your tactics might be necessary, and might conceivably offer some wins and the confidence that comes with them, it's at least possible that until you set some of your own experience aside, and look at the opportunities out there with an open mind and a more positive outlook, you'll remain unsuccessful.
There have been several contributions to this thread by traders who believe that "it" is possible, and who have come to trust their own consistent success as the best proof of the fact, just as you seem to be taking some recent string of losses as proof of the opposite. You may not be able to join that other group until you can believe that there are ways, for instance, to increase the likelihood that "if Fidelity or one of a million other hedgies or institutions decides to unload their position," you'll already be short, or at least won't be in their way.
And by the way: How often does a Fidelity or any of the million others just "randomly" unload a position? If you took a step back, you might see some of the flaws in your description, and some of the rhymes and reasons that may explain the particular events that you've observed.
Dude, what is this?
It sounds like you are trying to soothe your own ego by saying it can't be done.
"Statistically speaking" what you have said makes no sense. If you try to make an argument based on empirical observation you are going to get beat with your own stick. There are numerous short term off floor traders who have been making money consistently for ten or twenty years.
As for the percentages, again you have no valid point. If 90 or even 95% of people fail, what relevance does that have to anything at all? 90% of small businesses fail. 90% of people can't stay on a diet. 99.5% of wannabe actors, musicians and athletes end up as waiters and shoe store clerks.
If you are going to argue, make an actual argument. You haven't even presented any points worthy of debate yet.
Success in trading is a function of consistency, discipline, capital base, performance expectation, and money management. When you take a step back that sounds a lot like the building blocks of any business. If someone has a positive expectation w/ a robust method, there is no reason for that expectation to simply disappear w/out a material change in the system.
I'm also willing to bet that of the 95% of people who fail, the majority of them didn't have enough money, didn't have enough knowledge, didn't have enough commitment, didn't understand money management, didn't stick with it long enough, or never treated it seriously in the first place. In otherwords, the failure rate is vastly inflated by hackers and dabblers.
You sound like the type of person who thinks the odds are against you every time you trade. And you know what? You are probably right. Because if that's what you think, you obviously have no discernible edge. I wouldn't trade if I were you either. At least not until I got some confidence. I will not enter the market unless I feel that odds are in my favor at that moment in time. That is the whole point.
Trading is not magic. Running a business is not magic. It is selective execution of a plan that has a long run positive expectation after costs.
Stop whining because others can do something you haven't been able to. We don't get to choose what we're good at.
Is winning at golf a random event? Just about everyone can get a stick and hit a ball but there is only one Tiger Woods. You could debate until judgement day the whys and wherefores of it, but in the mean time the results speak for themselves.
IMO there is a difference between something that can be achieved and something that has a statistical chance of being achieved for the average person, regardless of the effort they put in.
Maybe 90% of daytraders fail. Probably 99.999% of wannabe pro golfers don't make it either.
Like someone else said, you can't choose what you are good at. But, you never really know unless you give it your all.
Cheers
IMO there is a difference between something that can be achieved and something that has a statistical chance of being achieved for the average person, regardless of the effort they put in.
Maybe 90% of daytraders fail. Probably 99.999% of wannabe pro golfers don't make it either.
Like someone else said, you can't choose what you are good at. But, you never really know unless you give it your all.
Cheers
Hi cmz1...glad you didn't take offense. Just joking around.
There are days my trading definitely "sucks", too...lol
I noticed in other posts' that you were a market-maker...
Okay, that tells me you're no "newbie" and could probably
tell me a thing or 2 about trading.
I guess we just differ in our opinions about whether
or not the markets are random.
I just believe that the markets are influenced by human
behavior and human behaviour is predictable. So, that
makes the markets "non-random" IMHO.
Maybe if you tried some stocks with lots of liquidity ( I personally trade the ES emini, so I never have a problem
closing a position, and the market draws very nice charts),
you wouldn't have such a problem with gaps?
You say you find it "extremely difficult to gain an edge"...
welcome to the club, brother.
I took me over 10 years, and thousands of charts, and experimenting with hundreds of different indicators before I
found a method (edge) that matched my personality.
I guess Jack says it best..."There are a million ways to make
money in the markets. The irony is that they are all very
difficult to find"...Jack D. Schwager
Tiger Woods has prodigious talent but he also has more dedication than anyone else.
He never takes it easy because he never stops working hard, relentless in his quest for higher levels.
I think that is a very important clue
p.s. Isaiah Thomas once said that you can never stop improving because the second you slow down they start gaining on you, very apropos for trading, somewhere out there traders are getting better and better every day, bring your A game and keep making it better or eventually you are toast