Is day trading worth it?

[dbphoenix]

With respect to r/t calls and claims? I did better than 10x risk in this thread. Every trade reconciled and taken by multiple parties. So there is his answer. And no, I have not replicated 10x (or better) risk since. My PF is roughly 5 since that thread was closed.

As I said 300 posts ago, there are several sequences of charts posted in my first journal. If you can find a chart I've posted that doesn't follow the rules I've also posted, please let me know so that I can either explain the chart or apologize for the error.

Of course charts lie and losers are hidden so I don't expect you to do this, but a winrate of 80% is not extraordinary nor is a high P:L.

Congratulations on your performance.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Laissez Faire: "Right now I'm not trading. I'm a full-time student of mathematics and physics, devoting most of my time there. But I'm still attracted to the markets and I am planning my return, just not sure if going back to day trading is worth it or even if I have the time to do so. Any thoughts on the subject?"

I'm pointing out occurrences of a common price action day trading method that offers positive expectancy within the framework of a day trading business plan, so you have at least one trading method upon which to base your decision to day trade or swing trade (this is a common swing trading entry method as well).

It's your thread; if you're confused or feel misled by my posts, please let me know and I'll abstain.

I dare say there's few people on ET who can break down a ES chart better than me in hindsight, so I don't need help there, thank you very much.

Still, regardless of my understanding of the ES, it is after all a market that behaves technically very clean and orderly, I had troubles bridging the gap between actual live trading and backtesting/hindsight.

During my last intensive study period and backtesting period, I actually put together a pretty interesting system that's very promising to me, so that's where I will continue when I pick up the thread. Basically, I created a custom made application that rips data from my live datafeed and feeds it into a database for live and historical analysis of price data. While the application does create charts as well, it's more about statistical analysis, raw numbers, probabilities based on pattern sequences and such.

I'm reluctant to reveal too much about it and have said enough already, since I spent a crazy amount of hours deciphering some of the ideas revealed by a member on this site and a crazy amount of hours to create the system. It is a potential gold mine and I have to say I understand the people who says that once you have something that's really good, you don't want to give it away.

It just doesn't make sense.

As for the thread topic, I have to say that I think swing trading will suit my lifestyle goals the best, but I feel like I've invested so much time and money into the ES and my system, that I want to see it through.

By the way, like I said in my previous post, I don't really care if people are profitable or not, unless they take on the role as a guru, wants to teach others and make grand claims. If they do, I actually think they have some responsibility for their words.

Oh, the guys I've learned the most from actually warns people against pursuing trading and says that I will most likely fail. I commend them for that.

Best regards.

 

[NoDoji]

I already said it, but one of the things that gives guys like sellindex credibility, is that he actually loses money as well and posts it.

If a swing trader with an average holding time of around two weeks who managed around 6 trades a month claimed to have no losing quarters, would that seem outrageous to you?

Experienced intraday scalpers rarely have losing days. When I first compiled stats for my trade ideas, I found that day after day the result was positive. It seemed impossible. So I PM'd the person who'd got me on the right track in the first place, someone who seemed to be a long time experienced day trader, and came right out and told him that my analyses see to indicate no losing days and I asked if that was possible. He replied that he had only one losing day so far that year and it was negligible.

The Trader Ed guy that was discussed here recently seems to have no losing days; he's a scalper.

Now I don't have the P/L of sellindexvol and downpruf because the techniques I use are not hugely scalable. If I was trading like them I'm sure I'd having losing days/weeks.

.

 

[Scaleout.Scalper]

If a swing trader with an average holding time of around two weeks who managed around 6 trades a month claimed to have no losing quarters, would that seem outrageous to you?

Experienced intraday scalpers rarely have losing days. When I first compiled stats for my trade ideas, I found that day after day the result was positive. It seemed impossible. So I PM'd the person who'd got me on the right track in the first place, someone who seemed to be a long time experienced day trader, and came right out and told him that my analyses see to indicate no losing days and I asked if that was possible. He replied that he had only one losing day so far that year and it was negligible.

The Trader Ed guy that was discussed here recently seems to have no losing days; he's a scalper.

Now I don't have the P/L of sellindexvol and downpruf because the techniques I use are not hugely scalable. If I was trading like them I'm sure I'd having losing days/weeks.

.

A person with a consistency as good as no losing days would have the mental fortitude to trade the absolutely best liquidity of the instrument aka max contracts without running into fill issues.

My question to you is, do you ?

 

[Grandluxe]

If a swing trader with an average holding time of around two weeks who managed around 6 trades a month claimed to have no losing quarters, would that seem outrageous to you?

Experienced intraday scalpers rarely have losing days. When I first compiled stats for my trade ideas, I found that day after day the result was positive. It seemed impossible. So I PM'd the person who'd got me on the right track in the first place, someone who seemed to be a long time experienced day trader, and came right out and told him that my analyses see to indicate no losing days and I asked if that was possible. He replied that he had only one losing day so far that year and it was negligible.

The Trader Ed guy that was discussed here recently seems to have no losing days; he's a scalper.

Now I don't have the P/L of sellindexvol and downpruf because the techniques I use are not hugely scalable. If I was trading like them I'm sure I'd having losing days/weeks.

.

TraderEd? That's the jaguar trading guy isn't it? I looked at his website.

But the thing is he doesn't trade everyday or rather he doesn't trade the same symbols every day..He is spreading out across several futures instruments. Crude, Natty, ES,etc. He doesn't seem to be taking that many trades as well. He just makes one scalping trade for say, ES. And that's it, he's done for that contract.

What is incredible is that you are finding 6++ opportunities every single day in the same instrument.

How many setups do you have in your repertoire?

 

[dbphoenix]

This thread is starting to get pretty long now, but I believe the reason I called out dbphoenix in the first place is that I feel he has a responsibility as he's taking on the role of a guru and actually teaching people. He's also a vendor selling a $30 ebook, something I do find puzzling for a guy who's supposedly been successful in the markets for a long time.

Further, I find it amusing that he keeps calling me and other losers and having ego issues, and so on, when I do not see anything that indicates he's not a loser himself.

That's why I called him out on it in the first place, in a rather respectfully manner if I know myself. The guru is the one who took it to this level by answering in a condescending manner and continuing to sit on his high horse while coming with snide remarks.

Actually, your first post was "What is your prediction for S&P 500 today or say the next days/weeks?", and when I explained that the approach wasn't about calls but about tracking price, you became rather dismissive. Hardly respectful.

As for the rest, you complained about how you were treated by your mentor and I said that you would likely have fared better if you had had a consistently-profitable trading plan, which you still don't have. As for my calling you a "loser", you yourself stated that you were a losing trader. I'm simply taking you at your word.

If you're trying to fix all this, great. But your losses are no one's responsibility but your own.

 

[dbphoenix]

But yes, I can do even better with a chart after the close. I promise.

Show me.

 

[NoDoji]

I dare say there's few people on ET who can break down a ES chart better than me in hindsight, so I don't need help there, thank you very much.

Still, regardless of my understanding of the ES, it is after all a market that behaves technically very clean and orderly, I had troubles bridging the gap between actual live trading and backtesting/hindsight.

During my last intensive study period and backtesting period, I actually put together a pretty interesting system that's very promising to me, so that's where I will continue when I pick up the thread. Basically, I created a custom made application that rips data from my live datafeed and feeds it into a database for live and historical analysis of price data. While the application does create charts as well, it's more about statistical analysis, raw numbers, probabilities based on pattern sequences and such.

I'm reluctant to reveal too much about it and have said enough already, since I spent a crazy amount of hours deciphering some of the ideas revealed by a member on this site and a crazy amount of hours to create the system. It is a potential gold mine and I have to say I understand the people who says that once you have something that's really good, you don't want to give it away.

It just doesn't make sense.

As for the thread topic, I have to say that I think swing trading will suit my lifestyle goals the best, but I feel like I've invested so much time and money into the ES and my system, that I want to see it through.

By the way, like I said in my previous post, I don't really care if people are profitable or not, unless they take on the role as a guru, wants to teach others and make grand claims. If they do, I actually think they have some responsibility for their words.

Oh, the guys I've learned the most from actually warns people against pursuing trading and says that I will most likely fail. I commend them for that.

Best regards.

My trading plan was the result of "live and historical analysis of price data...statistical analysis, raw numbers, probabilities based on pattern sequences and such".

Once I saw the results I realized it was a potential gold mine.

I would venture that the gap between live trading and testing/hindsight/potential gold mine is why this guy thinks you will most likely fail.

It's also why sharing price action day trading methods (that are the same things that have been shared here, in books, and in webinars for years) poses no major risk to the person sharing.

The odds of someone using the information shared to come up with their own plan and then to be able to actually trade it in real time without second-guessing and micro-managing trades are miniscule.

 

[Laissez Faire]

INow I don't have the P/L of sellindexvol and downpruf because the techniques I use are not hugely scalable. If I was trading like them I'm sure I'd having losing days/weeks.

As far as I know, sellindexvol and DP are doing options and not necessarily directional trading. Not sure about their time horizon.

Actually, I don't care about their P/L either. I had DP on ignore, but put him back on to see what he's posting here.

Why aren't your techniques scalable?

Can't you be trading the ES using your techniques? You have all the liquidity in the world there.

Regardless of scale, you have to admit that the skill of navigating profitably through live ever changing markets day after day without losing days is an astonishing claim.

I'm not saying you don't, I don't know, but if you do, that's AMAZING, at least if your few losing days are not blow-up days, but moderate or small losses.

 

[NoDoji]

A person with a consistency as good as no losing days would have the mental fortitude to trade the absolutely best liquidity of the instrument aka max contracts without running into fill issues.

My question to you is, do you ?

My forte is not mental fortitude