or is it something else?
is covid 19 what you call the "black swan?"
- Thread starter vincentnyc
- Start date
First, it's not "corvid 19", but "covid-19".
With regards to the "black swan", I assume that you are referring to Nassim Taleb's theories. According to Nassim, a "black swan" event has these 3 attributes:
1. It is outside the realm of regular expectations
2. It carries an extreme impact
3. In spite of its outlier status, there are concocted explanations for its occurrence after the fact
Looks to me that coronavirus does qualify to be classified as a "black swan" event.
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Agreed, I was on the other side of you, but had the figured well lied to me, 3.8% of people that where tested positive die, 90% of people have it, no big deal don't go to hospital, don't get tested, actual death rate to the overall population is around 0.35%, so it's just a bad flu.
I think I let emotion ruin the math's like many and know there ruining the world cause of this bad numbers game
Sorry for my earlier error!!
You only looking at the kill %, you not looking at the at total infection %.
If this thing is left unchecked will infect 50% of the population.Where as flu infects only 10% in any year.
It will infect 5x as many people and has at least 5x the kill rate. It will kill 25 times as many people as the flu. Over 1 million deaths in the USA vs 50, 000 for flu.
Agreed, I was on the other side of you, but had the figured well lied to me, 3.8% of people that where tested positive die, 90% of people have it, no big deal don't go to hospital, don't get tested, actual death rate to the overall population is around 0.35%, so it's just a bad flu.
I think I let emotion ruin the math's like many and know there ruining the world cause of this bad numbers game
Sorry for my earlier error!!
the general public, with 100 IQ by definition, will always be stupid... no way around that.
the PROBLEM is - politicians and them people in offices including school presidents and company CEOs... these are smart people and they know it's just another flu. but the urge to CYA to not lose the jobs is too strong.... that's why they are racing against each other to close schools companies states even countries.
Second of all its China Flu not COVID-19.
Have you washed your hands today dozu?
You should check out the video from the Italian ICU. "Just a flu" is some conspiracy non-sense. Life will change due to the R0 of this virus. I imagine cities closing down after they hit some threshold of cases after the major panic is over. Just regular 2-3 month shutdowns during the big sick seasons as a result of this and not having a vaccine available.
That's why senators have been dumping stock right? Surely "just another flu" is why airline CEOs are past the point of panic.
You appear to be the one with the IQ problem.
Flu doesn't kill 1million people in the US every year. Left unchecked this thing will.
even if that.
age group data shows the deaths are in the 70-90 yo group... basically putting people out of misery.
and how about traffic kills? lifetime chance of dying in traffic is 1/100, still higher than corona, which is about 1/400 even if we take your numbers.
and how about cardiovascular? 1 in 5 chance to die that way, why are people still eating double cheese burgers.
it's called WuFlu.
DO NOT wash your hands.... having bad hygene is the best defense.. you know why people are so afraid, because they keep their places so clean the immune system is under-trained... get a dog... the best immune booster.
ok maybe flu on steroids... still doesn't change the fact that lifetime chance of dying in traffic or cardiovascular is higher, and WAY higher for the latter.
dumping stock is not CYA.