Is counter trend trading a disease?

Quote from RedTankEra:

Counter trading incorrectly, which is how most traders do it, is most definitely a disease and doing it correctly requires tons of skill and experience, which is why newcomers should stay away from it until they have many years of actual trading experience.

Typically, you need one of the following to counter trade correctly:

1) You get a solid signal in a small tf, supported by a strong trend in a higher tf, not a tf too distant, but something 3-5x higher that's looking solid (up or down) and not ambiguous as trading without the back-up of a well defined trend tends to lead to chop, which is a killer, especially in a low vix environment.

or

2) Your smaller tf begins to create technical damage in the higher one, which is typically the first solid sign of trend reversal and not so much counter trend trading but the beginning of a new trend in relation to your bigger tf.

The above assumes that you have multi-tf reading skills and trend recognition skills with solid methods for defining it else you trading blindly, ie Brooks, Hershey, and the rest of those single tf rookies.

Remember that potential resistance in uptrends and potential support in downtrends don't hold as much value as potential support in uptrends and potential resistance in downtrends, but then again many here don't even believe in trends, so why the fuck am I typing this message for, carry on people.


Great post.:p

IMHO, it depends on the trading instrument as well. I would feel more comfortable counter-trend trading ES ( a congested market ) than oil futures ( a running market ). If I am wrong, my ES stop loss order will be filled with zero or one-tick slippage most of the time. For oil futures, I may pay dearly for trading against a strong trend.
 
The OP encouraged an adult exchange among those within a certain age group (I didn't make the cut, I found out).

As a trader mateurs in knowledge and skills (and refraining from getting stuck in a space), he does experience the end of Enter/Exit type trading; thus, he is able to take more of what the market offers.

Anxiety, fear and anger subside and comfort, support and confidence come into the trader's trading style.

After trending or chop are not the two alternatives, the trader becomes more sensitive to a greater variety of different types of trends.

But before this particular breakthrough there could be a space occupied where the trader is still yet to leanr the difference between a retrace and a reversal.

When all of the above are passed through along the path of improvement, something else disappears from the trader's vocabulary and beliefs.

Below I added some "indicators" in color in this post for the reader to consider.



Quote from RedTankEra:

Counter trading incorrectly, which is how most traders do it, is most definitely a disease and doing it correctly requires tons of skill and experience amen, which is why newcomers should stay away from it until they have many years of actual trading experience.

Typically, you need one of the following to snip trade correctly:

1) You get a solid signal in a small tf, supported by a strong trend in a higher tf, not a tf too distant, but something 3-5x higher that's looking solid (up or down) and not ambiguous as trading without the back-up of a well defined trend tends to lead to chop, which is a killer, especially in a low vix environment. Here you are reading about reversal trading corectly characterized. But do expect to go from a dominant to opposite dominant (c turn) instead of going to chop. Also replace the tf symbol with the word fractal

or

2) Your smaller tf begins to create technical damage in the higher one, which is typically the first solid sign of trend reversal and not so much counter trend trading but the beginning of a new trend in relation to your bigger tf. This description is what happens between the first and second move of a continuing trend (b turn dominant to non dominant) and which in CW is known as a retrace beginning.

The above assumes that you have multi-tf reading skills and trend recognition skills with solid methods for defining it else you trading blindly, ie Brooks, Hershey, and the rest of those single tf rookies.Using at least three adjacent fractals is prudent; the trading fractal is surrounded by a slower fractal and a faster fractal than the trading fractal

Remember that potential resistance in uptrends and potential support in downtrends don't hold as much value as potential support in uptrends and potential resistance in downtrends, but then again many here don't even believe in trends, so why the fuck am I typing this message for, carry on people.


Your post is top drawer. By defining the difference between a retrace in a trend forming and a reversal which ends a trade, you are really empowered.

A beginning intermediate trader has the knowledge and skill to hold through a retrace and then later trade the reversal at the end of the trend. Or later as a full fledged intermediate trader the trader has the knowledge and skills to do three trades egments for every trend (Dominant, non dominant, and dominant).

Why do most not make it out of being beginners for many years?

The adult discussion type reason is that they keep repeating their frst year's experience over and over by being stuck where they are.

Let's examine an additional type turn that is different than the retrace a turn (dominant to non dominant) (Part 2, above). and the reversal c turn (dominant to opisite non dominant)( Part 1.)

This is pertinent for a lot of you who hold the belief in counter trending. You MUST know when the end of this specious thing you get trapped by ends.

The end is the b turn (non dominant to dominant).

A retrace in a three part trend ends with the b turn.

A normal trend has three parts. here they are in terms of the pieces:

A c turn begins a trend; a dominant move occurs; a bturn ends the dominant move and begins the non dominant move; a non dominat segment forms; A b turn ends the non dominant segment and begins the third move of the trend; the dominant third move ensues; the trend ends with a c turn.

In shorthand: c to dom to b to non dom to b to dom to c.

So why in 12 adult oriented pages hasn't anyone brought up the b turn that ends a trend retrace (second and nondominant move)? The reason is the poster's progression through the various skill and knowledge levels of trading.

If you are using the term "counter trend", your belief system is inflamed with a misbelief that is hard to get past.

Begin to recognize the a turn for a retrace is different than a c turn for a reversal. (this will grant you a 50% incerase in your trading performance).

Next begin to recognize the b turn that ends a retrace whereby the trending returns to it's original dominance. (this will grant you a 50% increase in your trading performance.

All of these things take you closer and closer to dropping the Enter/Exit beginner level of doing profit/loss segments. You need to not do the loss stuff anymore.

To not see this unwelcome adult comment simply put me on ignore and hope like hell no one quotes me.

The EMH is alive and well. It is always in effect even though some bumblers cannot take its measure. All the measures are positive and highly collated, unless the measurer is doing a poor job. All the adults who have debated the EMH in this thread missed the point that the data they consider is just not reliable at all. Debating garbage is inappropriate at all times.

You have two new drills to begin doing and each will increase your performance 50%.

There are four types of trends. See if you can begin to use the most common and know that you know if it is in effect.

If you continue to use the word "counter" you are "stuck".
 
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Quote from NoDoji:

Once price breaks out (of something, such as a HOD/LOD or a triangle or a range) with conviction (definition of conviction should be defined for your instrument in advance, I use 8-10 ticks for CL), try this:

Look at a smaller time frame for pullback bars, a bar that breaks the high/low of a previous bar counter to the trending move. It looks/feels like the move is over. Hold your nose and place a buy stop or sell stop above/below the new high/low.

Just do that every time there's a strong trending move in play. It's a great exercise for getting over counter-trend trading. I started out a few years ago with very small size AAPL and AMZN stock, learning to do the absolute opposite of everything I'd done as a beginner.

Once you get over that fear of going with a strong trend, you should investigate ways to get positioned during the pullback in the smaller time frame, so when price breaks out you have bigger profit.

ADD: Getting into a strong trend off a pullback feels really counter-intuitive. If you remember the first time you got on a plane and it's barreling down the runway and you're thinking "There's no way this thing can just lift off the ground...we're not going fast enough...it's not gonna work..." That's how I felt entering with-trend off pullbacks. Often there's wiggle and jiggle that goes on and you feel like you've just put on the dumbest trade in the world, then suddenly out of nowhere....LIFTOFF! (Or CRASH if you're shorting, LOL).


wow, beautifully put!! this is probably the best advice ever given on ET in regards to diagnosing and correcting a trading condition. well done.

great description by trader99 too on what goes through the mind of a counter trend trader getting destroyed.
 
Keith Fitchen's backtesting showed that countertrend trading works well on intraday time-frames. In other words, daytrading trends is a losing game.
 
The trend is the price movement after one enters a trade. If one is losing, then one is against the trend, and if one is winning, then one is with the trend. No one wants to trade against a trend, but the majority do because it is the nature of speculative markets. The definition of the trend I just gave is in my view the only definition that is valid and that matters.
 
it's strategy that works when it's not trending.

Quote from Trader.Fighter:

I enjoy reading trader's psychology in public forums, not just this one, but others across "The Net". Watching how traders think and act, watching them get trapped, then enter a phase of denial by adding to positions doing very poorly because the trend just kept going.

One thing that has surprised me all along is the need to call bottoms in downtrends or the opposite, calling tops in uptrends.

The need to predict the change of a trend without an ounce of confirmation. Not just occasionally but some have adopted it as a dominant trading style. Is there a relation between this and vast majority of traders losing ?

Is it a trading disease or an addiction ?

It's certainly something harmful and during my early years of trading I recognized it as a cancer in my trading, one I had to eradicate to succeed.

On a different level, should counter-trend signals be used to exit trend positions ? Should they be ignored ? Should they be taken and reverse back when the trend have identified the counter-trend signal as clear trap ?

Not trying to disrespect anyone, just trying to start an adult discussion on the matter.

Best wishes and please discuss.
 
Doesn't the market have to be trending for it to be a with trend or counter trend trade?

Good counter trend traders (and I do believe that is not an oxymoron!) are, by and large, true scalpers. They don't scalp against all trends nor do they buy or sell with every pullback eben in their "kind of trend". They break lots of what most of us consider firm rules yet they know how to make it work.

Someone knows how to make money in ways that I don't/can't ... go figure!!

Quote from streetgangs:

it's strategy that works when it's not trending.
 
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