Is counter trend trading a disease?

eurusdzn · Jul 15, 2013

NoDoji,
Does Bob Volman's forex price scalping book have any or much to say about
applying his techniques to daily or even weekly price bars?
Secondly , if the book does not address daily or weekl bars, do you think it is applicable?
I recall from some of your posts years ago that you were swing trading stocks so I am aware you have experience along this path.
Thanks.

Ps . Nice post. Does CL look like that every day!

NoDoji · Jul 15, 2013

Quote from eurusdzn:

NoDoji,
Does Bob Volman's forex price scalping book have any or much to say about
applying his techniques to daily or even weekly price bars?
Secondly , if the book does not address daily or weekl bars, do you think it is applicable?
I recall from some of your posts years ago that you were swing trading stocks so I am aware you have experience along this path.
Thanks.

Ps . Nice post. Does CL look like that every day!

His book is strictly geared to FX scalping 10 pip profit with stops of 10 pips or less. He uses a 70-tick chart which I found to be nearly identical to a 1-min chart of CL during the pit session.

I think the patterns (setups) he describes can be applied to other time frames because they're common trend-following patterns. I've seen plenty of daily charts and even weekly charts that have patterns identical to the 1-min chart I posted. Basic price action concepts don't seem to ever change. Sure, there are random events occasionally (like the "flash crashes" we sometimes see), but they are rare enough that they don't affect an overall edge based on price action concepts.

The 1-min price action in CL offers at least one strong trending move like that each day and often more than one. CL is notorious on inventory day (Wednesdays) for total retraces of major moves, so if you miss out going one direction, you'll have a chance to take a long ride the other direction at some point

Redneck · Jul 15, 2013

Quote from Trader.Fighter:

Precisely, but waiting for one fractal to fail in order to get trend alignment is always an option.

Call me curious;

What does the fractal nature of the mkt have to do with timeframe(s)

Or for that matter actual trading....

Asking in an attempt to possibly learn something

Thanks
RN

ammo · Jul 15, 2013

fractals are great it's just that the value changes with the big money coming in,larger fractals(timeframes)or they are already in and you dilly around with smaller
timeframes until,they are balls out long or short and move it big in their direction , watching volume helps, thanks to hersh for alerting us

kut2k2 · Jul 15, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

Statistics has PROVEN that price trends do not exist in the stock market--- why does everyone still believe that they do?

surf

LOL!

Surf, you are too funny. Statistics can be used to "prove" some people snort tinfoil.

kut2k2 · Jul 15, 2013

Quote from Redneck:

Call me curious;

What does the fractal nature of the mkt have to do with timeframe(s)

Or for that matter actual trading....

Asking in an attempt to possibly learn something

Thanks
RN

Jack Hershey started using 'fractal' as a synonym for 'timeframe' for who knows what reason, and of course his followers and perhaps other gullible souls have followed suit.

Trader.Fighter · Jul 15, 2013

Used the term fractal because if one is using tick charts or range or constant volume based bars, the word timeframe, is not appropriate.

Certainly not a follower of JH.

Redneck, I will respond appropriately once I finish some personal business.

jack hershey · Jul 15, 2013

Quote from kut2k2:

Jack Hershey started using 'fractal' as a synonym for 'timeframe' for who knows what reason, and of course his followers and perhaps other gullible souls have followed suit.

What you say is what you think.

Everytime frame shows a least three trading fractals.

You have a fucked up view.

ammo · Jul 16, 2013

Quote from jack hershey:

What you say is what you think.

Everytime frame shows a least three trading fractals.

You have a fucked up view.

last part jack,cant beat em joinem mentality,not your m o

tiddlywinks · Jul 16, 2013

This will probably come off like I'm messing with you, but that is not the case.

There is only one "trend" and that is the current price MOVEMENT, as in right now, for any given market. The current price movement is the only "trend". It is the only price movement (trend) capable of producing REALIZED profit or loss.

So just what is "counter"trend? For that matter, no-one has defined "trend". If prices are MOVING, the direction, or lack of direction of the movement is the (only) "trend". Counter trading is doing the opposite of current price movement, with an opposite expectation as well.

NoDoji's CL example case in point. The short trade was supposedly "counter" to PREVIOUS MOVEMENT. But that previous movement was. The short trade was it's own movement, in reality not counter to anything. During that period, being long could have produced a realized profit or loss depending on entry price just the same as being short could have produced realized profit or loss depending on entry price. There is no trend, other than the current price movement!

In his post, Marketsurfer called trend following mental delusion. All I will say is that current, as in right now price movement is the only "trend" capable of producing a realized profit or loss. You are either trading with or against THAT. Anything else is your own judgements, biases, and beliefs... things that have nothing to do with actual price movement unless we change the topic to behavioral finance.

Trade On!