Quote from Trader.Fighter:
I enjoy reading trader's psychology in public forums, not just this one, but others across "The Net". Watching how traders think and act, watching them get trapped, then enter a phase of denial by adding to positions doing very poorly because the trend just kept going.
One thing that has surprised me all along is the need to call bottoms in downtrends or the opposite, calling tops in uptrends.
The need to predict the change of a trend without an ounce of confirmation. Not just occasionally but some have adopted it as a dominant trading style. Is there a relation between this and vast majority of traders losing ?
Is it a trading disease or an addiction ?
It's certainly something harmful and during my early years of trading I recognized it as a cancer in my trading, one I had to eradicate to succeed.
On a different level, should counter-trend signals be used to exit trend positions ? Should they be ignored ? Should they be taken and reverse back when the trend have identified the counter-trend signal as clear trap ?
Not trying to disrespect anyone, just trying to start an adult discussion on the matter.
Best wishes and please discuss.
You may wish to appraise what you read by constructing a spectrum of the language sets posters use.
I track about a dozen posters to observe their progress and also to observe how a person migrates from one stage to another.
Also a common dialogue happens among those who are job seekers in the relative tiers of employment.
Your status, I would say is "stuck". And over a spectrum you are to the right of BE the profitable half of the spectrum.
Like growing tomato plants, there could be nine talent dividers in the row and the row has eight talent spaces.
Money is made by price shange and changing price is called "trending". Countertrending may be just the retrace of the dominat trend.
Anyways ........
The market's study can be divided into 7 fractals and they are interlocking.
Doji's chart shows three of the four types of trend sets: A, C and D. Most people never get to this level of discovery. For most people there are one or two types of trends. The set C is the "normal" trend. The commonly seen "counter" trend is the set A. These have a distinguishing mutually exclusive characterisitc: completeness.
Sets A through D, respectively have 30, 16, 26, and 29 elements.
Each element is distinguished by its last two relative kinds of turns. The market exhibits just three types of turns as you implied.
c is dominant to dominant.
a is dominant to non-dominant
and b is non-dominant to dominant
I'm sure you can reason why the fourth possibility does not really exist.
So why do people get stuck where they are and never go further?
Some are "good enough" (advanced beginner, so to speak).
Anxiety, fear and anger end the careers on the the left side of the spectrum.
Traders on the far right have a common characteristic: "they know that they know"
Today on the ES you can see many examples from the trend sets. At the end of each profit segment, I named the set the profit segment occupies. The end of trend names are on the independent variable as you might expect.