Is chart trading dead? (At least when it comes to ES)

[murray t turtle]

The charts have given clear signals on ES not just this year but always. Every sell off found quick support at a previous area of resistance and continued up. Continuous buying opportunities, if you will.

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I like charts also,; but my records confirm i do better with things besides ES, like stocks for example.........................................................................................Don Bright Daytrading Co,warned behind every shipwreck there is a chart @ the bottom of the sea LOL

 

[volpri]

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I like charts also,; but my records confirm i do better with things besides ES, like stocks for example.........................................................................................Don Bright Daytrading Co,warned behind every shipwreck there is a chart @ the bottom of the sea LOL

LOL same thing for indicators..stats...automation...except for indicators, stats, automation it is a slew of indicators....stats..algo's and computer programs..or price drivers..basically anything else one chooses to use in trading. ALL at the bottom of the sea...ROFLMAO.

MOST SHIPWRECKS are not methodological problems but caused by psychological issues.

Just think about Victor Niederhoffer account blowups. Why? Was it methodological? Psychological? Combination of both? Or none of the above?

His were big shipwrecks.

 

[volpri]

Then what about Marketsurfers Price drivers and Beat the Machines with the 1000 point guaranteed price drop in the YM? When you marry a positon and the market does the opposite it can be difficult to just go with what the market is doing. It is best not to marry a position in the markets.

 

[murray t turtle]

LOL same thing for indicators..stats...automation...except for indicators, stats, automation it is a slew of indicators....stats..algo's and computer programs..or price drivers..basically anything else one chooses to use in trading. ALL at the bottom of the sea...ROFLMAO.

MOST SHIPWRECKS are not methodological problems but caused by psychological issues.

Just think about Victor Niederhoffer account blowups. Why? Was it methodological? Psychological? Combination of both? Or none of the above?

His were big shipwrecks.

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I buy @ XOM ,volpro; but we can NOT really blame XOM Valdez shipwreck on charts, or ES LOL Shipwreck analysis shows 7-9 things that caused it including'' hurry up, '' just like the Titanic...... Market makers+ specialists do good work in a hurry, but driving the Valdez or Titanic, not so much.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Agreed. I’ve been cognitively compromised and this has affected my performance, not surprisingly.

Understandable.

When I hear 'chart reading', I'm immediately thinking subjective, open to interpretation, making decisions on the fly, discretion, etc.

I think charts are very valuable, but it might make sense to incorporate some hard rules, statistics and plan the trading in advance if one isn't already doing that.

Best of luck.

 

[learner2007]

Is chart trading dead?

It will never die because there will always be trends in the markets as long as there are
people (and algos) that can't read them!!

 

[learner2007]

When I hear 'chart reading', I'm immediately thinking subjective, open to interpretation, making decisions on the fly, discretion, etc.

Yes, 'chart reading' may sound lightweight compared to other expressions that define the same approach. Just as the well known Head & Shoulders may sound sort of Mickey Mouse to some. Perhaps if it had been named a 'rectangle with a false breakout' it would be taken more seriously.

 

[volpri]

Understandable.

When I hear 'chart reading', I'm immediately thinking subjective, open to interpretation, making decisions on the fly, discretion, etc.

I think charts are very valuable, but it might make sense to incorporate some hard rules, statistics and plan the trading in advance if one isn't already doing that.

Best of luck.

Yes, it is all of that and more. A trader just gotta get good in all those areas and flexible to bend in all those areas. Markets do not "live" by our rules. There are only moments when probable success in a trade is high like 90%. Most of the time if a trader can "see" 60% or 65% probabilty of success he best make haste and place his bets.

Many times probability is only 50% or even less. A trader can still trade the lower probability but will PROBALLY get stopped out more often. However, the times he does get the direction correct ..well..it can make up for all the stop outs.

There is no high level of certainty in the markets, and cannot be, or all who found it would ...well be extremely rich. There are only pressures bull or bearish..up or down..and determining which has the upper hand at the moment is a traders primary task before placing a high probabilty trade. A low probabilty trade can be placed if a trader can read the larger context and interpret it correctly.

Markets have been known to twist interpretations..decisions....stats...into a convoluted mess that has no redemption. That is what stoplosses are for. ROFL

 

[Laissez Faire]

There is no high level of certainty in the markets, and cannot be, or all who found it would ...well be extremely rich.

What you're really saying is that you haven't found a high level of certainty and that you aren't extremely rich.

There are certainly others who've become 'extremely rich' from trading, so I would reconsider what's actually possible and not in trading.

How can there be any progress in trading if one never do any better than a mere coin flip?

 

[Sprout]

What you're really saying is that you haven't found a high level of certainty and that you aren't extremely rich.

There are certainly others who've become 'extremely rich' from trading, so I would reconsider what's actually possible and not in trading.

How can there be any progress in trading if one never do any better than a mere coin flip?

Your logic is good. However your particular beliefs around the relevancy of volume determining price is not so good.

If you are perceiving the markets as each bar a coin flip, then one's progress is
dependent on when you are taking the coin flip in the series and when you are not and how much of your stake you wager on any particular flip.

A coin flip near the highs or lows of the previous bar on increasing volume creates a different context than the coin flip taken when there is decreasing volume.

For most, the market is ruled by the paradigm of game theory. If you subscribe to this belief, then understand your probabilities, place your bets and take your chances.


The wisdom of the crowd