Thank you for this excellent post and link to Andrew Lo presentation. I have studied what Dr. Lo has published for years and used his findings in my trading. It is brilliant, as would be expected from MIT and in keeping with another paper by Dr.Lo on Random Walk versus Predictable patterns in the markets. This really deserves the attention of any serious trader. Thanks.
Is chart trading dead? (At least when it comes to ES)
- Thread starter tortoise
- Start date
Thanks for the excellent post! Well presented and inciteful. (Now it looks like ET has returned to more useful information -- and retreated from the contests with sponsors of recent days.) Thanks also to the OP for starting this thread.It depends on the person. People with good physical tactility do this easily with practice it seems to me. I know a small few traders like myself who knock off 3-10 contract scalps all day for 1-5 ticks. We will take more if we can get it.
Dom or chart does not matter in my experience, it is the bounce of price on the right one tunes into along with obvious levels to the left.
Personalities vary wildly however being drawn to dangerous sports, climbing, racing and whatnot is 100% in the small sample I know. There is a subconscious skillset built from such, you always have a way to step back from the heat in mind (or you would be dead already).
The snag is there are low(ish) revenue ceilings with scalping? You should make money every day, only a few losing days a year (sick days) however averaging much past 8-9k a day is damned difficult (tough on the heart) and 3-5 is common as I understand from discussions with my friends.
Then once you are doing well for a couple of years, you have more capital than you can deploy efficiently scalping so swing trading becomes necessary to push through the scalping ceiling.
That might seem like good remuneration, who is complaining right? but compared to a CEO job these days? decent but not not spectacular for the effort and few if any cocktail parties. It is a lonely job. Being in the market in swings over weekends / holidays etc. is stressful to the subconscious for me anyway, I rarely relax properly. And you have to be the kind of sharp person who could be a CEO or director anyway to scalp like this as a solo retail trader. It is only one way of many to make money for the quick.
Two cents anyway. I love scalping though. I run back to momma whenever I feel lost. Once you are past building capital, its like dealing a game of patience or a 'meditation' as Sting said
An additional point or suggestion on this video: @Startibartfast, I suggest that this video and the discussion of it would be an extremely valuable thread. Perhaps you would initiate a thread illustrating how to apply the knowledge gained from watching the video and use thereof to profitably trade today's markets. Any takers? Or encouragement from ET members to proceed?
First, what style of trading are you doing? Meaning, what trading setups are you looking for? Double tops, 123's, flags, support & resistance etc?
If you are just trading price action, then bots don't matter at all.. They actually help especially when they short/long squeeze the market.. Just ride the wave..
I made the mistake last year sticking to one market just because I was used to trading that particular market.. But it is complete suicide.. Just look for a market that has volatility and trade it..
The NQ is way better than the ES IMO..
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All of the above. There’s no reason for me not to include NQ in the day. I follow it anyway.
My 2 cents:
Cancer treatment can be stressful.
Day-trading can be stressful.
Cut back on your stress. Do stuff that you enjoy.
IMHO don't compete with the HFT bots trading the noise.
If you must trade, slow the game down. Trade a longer timeframe/interval. Only take your very best trade set-ups. Having alerts and reminders wouldn't hurt either.
Think Positive, Stay Hydrated, Eat right, Exercise, Be well.
Assuming that 'chart trading' worked in the first place - why would it be any different this year than prior years?
Contraction of volatility is just part of the market cycle. Higher volatility might be easier for some since you might have a few stop outs and still be able to get a piece of the action eventually.
In a low volatility environment offering less movement, your margin of error is lower since there's less to catch, so to speak. On some days, there might even be only one good trade. A lot of people seem to get continuous stopouts in such an environment since they're trying to trade a different market than the one that's currently in effect.
Looking at the last months of 2017, there's certainly been good opportunities in the ES, although there have been some dull days for sure.
Contraction of volatility is just part of the market cycle. Higher volatility might be easier for some since you might have a few stop outs and still be able to get a piece of the action eventually.
In a low volatility environment offering less movement, your margin of error is lower since there's less to catch, so to speak. On some days, there might even be only one good trade. A lot of people seem to get continuous stopouts in such an environment since they're trying to trade a different market than the one that's currently in effect.
Looking at the last months of 2017, there's certainly been good opportunities in the ES, although there have been some dull days for sure.
Agreed. I’ve been cognitively compromised and this has affected my performance, not surprisingly.
Good point! One that many traders do not even consider. I, of course, am a chart reader. Patterns work a percentage of time. Other times they fail. Correctly interpreting the context within which a price pattern occurs is an important factor in deciding if the pattern will likely succeed or likely fail IMO. As needful as it is to "see" chart patterns (assuming one is a chart reader) it is also needful to determine the probability of that pattern doing what is anticipated of that pattern. In addition, it is just as important to know "what" to do when a patterns fails.