Is BBI the next SIRI?

And one other thing. This would be the most complicated prepack or Chapter 11 filing you will ever see.

Remember, all of their canadian assets are gone as they are presently being utilized as collateral for the new recent studio deals. Plus a BK filing could potentially jeopardize all of these new contracts, 28 days, etc.

The only tangible assets they have in liquid play would be the Euro ones, but with the currency tank and state of the markets, I would be surprised to see them get more than $65M.

Also make no mistake, the 2014's OWN this company. The 2014's is not your ordinary senior secured float. But the pickle is, the 2014's get totally screwed in a BK liquidation filing. And even in a prepack 11, they DO NOT want equity. They are best served and suited for keeping blockbuster running long enough so that they can turn things around and start benefiting on the positive EPS side with all the new revenue streams that will start kicking in during the next couple quarters.

In other words cash flow is tight right now. But they just closed a ton of stores and are projected to save several hundred million dollars annually. They are cutting other cost structures as well. On the revs side, they have VOD, DROID app, kiosks, etc. all hitting soon. So the 2014's don't want to spite themselves, because blockbuster could be a cash machine in 6-9 months again. Hence the forbearance. They have their restructure guy in there now, who is basically going to tell them, yes this is gonna turn around, keep it going, or no, forget about it, its a lost cause and pull the plug.

The only real debt they would get rid of would be the 2012's while completely wiping out common equity holders. So allot of people think, oh in chapter 11, they would wipe out so much debt. No this is not so. They would get rid of 95% or more of the 2012's, which is $300M but the 2014's, $600M+, have some ironclad covenants in their deal and it would be a very complex situation.
 
Quote from mililani:

God, fuck. You are an absolute moron of the first order. Exotic trade? It's called hedging your bet, stupid ass...
More...

The funny party about elite trader is that its not full of traders, but full of 1) trolls that just post for the hell of it to get a laugh and 2) hacks who post to make money through some type of scenario. The message above is a prime example. Notice how the alias calls me names and expects me to respond back in some profane manner to promote a flame war. Everyone who has been on this board for a few months knows that the trolls and hacks are always right no matter what happens to the market. Real traders are wrong on occasion where as trolls and hacks are always right. Through their "hedging" strategy they will always make money.

If I was "stupid ass" or a "dumb shit" then I would respond back to the alias in a profane manner, but Im not going to do that. However, I have moved up a few ranks from dumb shit and now sit a little higher on the totem with a keen ability to know who I am dealing with. In any event, my level of caring on this board keeps dropping and its not going to make a bottom anytime soon.
 
Fair enough. But for you to say this was an exotic strategy speaks volumes about your lack of experience with trading. If you knew what I was talking about, you would also know there is definite risk involved. Every trade or investment isn't a guaranteed bet. I didn't allude to that, and I don't think any serious trader would ever say that. I just assumed (which was my mistake) that anyone who knew a damn about trading would see the possible risk with this trade. And the risk is easy to see: if the stock price stayed even till the LEAPS expired, I would be down 1% for worthless options. The common could go down X% above the strike price and I would be down that much on the common as well. Then, I could get royally screwed if the common went into Ch.11 after the LEAPS expired. So, yes, this trade isn't risk free. But, that was never my intention in the trade. I bet a mere 2% for a possible 9-10% return by swinging for the fences. If this trade goes awry, I would most likely cut my losses and hopefully lose just 1%. We'll see how it plays out.
 
Quote from mililani:

Fair enough. But for you to say this was an exotic strategy speaks volumes about your lack of experience with trading. If you knew what I was talking about, you would also know there is definite risk involved. Every trade or investment isn't a guaranteed bet. I didn't allude to that, and I don't think any serious trader would ever say that. I just assumed (which was my mistake) that anyone who knew a damn about trading would see the possible risk with this trade. And the risk is easy to see: if the stock price stayed even till the LEAPS expired, I would be down 1% for worthless options. The common could go down X% above the strike price and I would be down that much on the common as well. Then, I could get royally screwed if the common went into Ch.11 after the LEAPS expired. So, yes, this trade isn't risk free. But, that was never my intention in the trade. I bet a mere 2% for a possible 9-10% return by swinging for the fences. If this trade goes awry, I would most likely cut my losses and hopefully lose just 1%. We'll see how it plays out.
More...

This is the funny part about trolls. In my last post, notice how I was not talking to the alias and never talked about trading. I simply pointed out that the alias was a troll and addressed the general audience. Then the alias replies back as if they never read what I wrote. Its almost as if a machine is replying back to me. I could have written in my last message the words to the Star Spangled Banner and it still would have replied back "Fair enough...".

I do believe there is a human somewhere taking the time to enter in these messages, but it does seem so machine-like. Almost robotic in response and candor. Now watch, it will probably reply back thinking I entered in a response about trading.

There are some intelligent and hardworking people on elitetrader. If they used that same intelligence and work ethic out in the business world versus on here trolling, then the world might just be a better place. I know, I used the word "might". I did that because if I am wrong about my assertion then I could say I was right if they make the world a better place or not...
 
What are you thinking of the bonds at this point? Are you still in? I purchased more at 4 cents a few weeks ago. I still like the risk/reward. Today's trades to 10 and 11 are promising. I was happy to see the 2012 interest in my account on the 1st. Then I was unhappy to see it reversed on the 2nd. Did this happen to you too? Looks like we are getting to the final stages anyway. I think we get at least 10 cents in the worst case scenario. Next best scenario is some equity. Best case is we are made whole by either a white night or other means.
 
Quote from buffett1973:

What are you thinking of the bonds at this point? Are you still in? I purchased more at 4 cents a few weeks ago. I still like the risk/reward. Today's trades to 10 and 11 are promising. I was happy to see the 2012 interest in my account on the 1st. Then I was unhappy to see it reversed on the 2nd. Did this happen to you too? Looks like we are getting to the final stages anyway. I think we get at least 10 cents in the worst case scenario. Next best scenario is some equity. Best case is we are made whole by either a white night or other means.
More...

IN a word, we are screwed. NO white nights coming for sure. And its being reported now on several newswires that Carl Icahn has taken a 1/3rd position in the senior 2014 float. And the goal is to wipe out all the debt. The 2014's will be forced to take equity/stock. The 2012's will be wiped out along with the common stock being worthless. This trade may wind up on my top 5 of all time losers lost money list.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN2225206720100922?rpc=44

I will definitely be switching to Netflix. This company is a total joke. Their CFO who recently left the company; many speculate he was shown the door, was an imbecile. Making the comments way back about how a reverse split might not even be necessary, etc. And Keyes also is totally clueless waiting as long as they did to diversify their revenue stream.

The worst though was not doing anything with the debt float back in January of this year when they had a quarter billion in market cap equity.

The only thing that really throws me off, is that the last 5 days, there has been enormous buying of the 2012 bonds in the open market. Up to $10M per day and this morning someone grabbed a ton all on the high ask side of the market price.
 
Well, looks like we'll find out very soon (one article said tomorrow before market open). Even though it was a spec play I felt pretty good about buying the 2012s. I'm still hoping that the 2012s are teaming up with Ichan and his 1/3 of the seniors to convert to equity. This would eliminate 500M of the billion dollar debt (50%). New equity would have some promise after recap. Should be cash flow positive soon after. Shareholders most likely done. Do you think 2012s have any legal recourse if they are wiped out. You are right about the 2012 bonds getting a lot of action of late, but today looked ugly because of the news. Hopefully it was just scared investors who don't really know what's going on behind closed doors.
 
Quote from buffett1973:

Well, looks like we'll find out very soon (one article said tomorrow before market open). Even though it was a spec play I felt pretty good about buying the 2012s. I'm still hoping that the 2012s are teaming up with Ichan and his 1/3 of the seniors to convert to equity. This would eliminate 500M of the billion dollar debt (50%). New equity would have some promise after recap. Should be cash flow positive soon after. Shareholders most likely done. Do you think 2012s have any legal recourse if they are wiped out. You are right about the 2012 bonds getting a lot of action of late, but today looked ugly because of the news. Hopefully it was just scared investors who don't really know what's going on behind closed doors.
More...

There was never any teaming up with the 2012's & Icahn. Icahn & the 2014's wanted to leave the 2012 holders with a complete loss. The whole play here was that they would do a pre-pack in which we would be involved in the new allocation of equity of the new company.

Ideally the prepack is the way to go, because it is so much easier and quicker. Instead they filed a straight up BK chapter 11, which will be a much longer process.

It will be up to the courts now to decide if we are totally wiped out or not.
 
All shareholders & subordinated 2012 debt holders will be left with nothing. Absolutely amazing. This is the first time I have seen debt holders wiped out like this. Even the six flags bonds recooped.

I believe that Keyes stopped talking with the 2012's months ago. At that time, they ran into a wall where the 2012's offered up $30M in cash + new bonds for 95% equity of the company. Keyes wanted $100M and to give up much less equity. The 2012's were playing hard probably never thinking they could be wiped out because they had the rules of capital structure on their side.



"The long-awaited deal will reduce the group’s debt to around $100 million from nearly $1 billion, but will leave nothing for shareholders or investors in the firm’s subordinated debt."


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/blockbuster-files-for-chapter-11-2010-09-23-7730?siteid=yhoof
 
"The 2012's were playing hard probably never thinking they could be wiped out because they had the rules of capital structure on their side."

seriously don't they have lawyers to explain the reality?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top