Is average consistent 3 R profit per month realistic?

Quanto said:
> Is average consistent 3 R profit per month realistic?
Depends on the definition of R you use... :)
Which one do you use?
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Classic definition, risk $500+ make $2,000= 4 R.
RE investing 10% down $500 on $50,000+ service businesses could do better average .
Maybe not per month\ average market time for RE in the 20 years I did it was longer than one month; it was 3-6 months.
IF some had asked me ''can I make a million buck$ selling pet rocks?? LOL I dont know that also :D:D Took more than months to do it.
 
What I mean is risking 1 % per trade and make consistent 3 % every month
murray t turtle said:
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Classic definition, risk $500+ make $2,000= 4 R.
RE investing 10% down $500 on $50,000+ service businesses could do better average .
Maybe not per month\ average market time for RE in the 20 years I did it was longer than one month; it was 3-6 months.
IF some had asked me ''can I make a million buck$ selling pet rocks?? LOL I dont know that also :D:D Took more than months to do it.
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vortextrader said:
The 3 R profit can be from any systems with positive expectancy
for example 50 % WR with 1:2 RR 6 trades per mo
or 66.66 percent WR 9 trades per mo .
Result net profit 3 R per mo
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Ok, thx, will need to setup and run a MC sim to replicate/verify/confirm it.
How do you do get your above results? Pure maths or MC sim? Looks much like the Kelly formula, isn't it?
 
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vortextrader said:
no math, no EA. manual backtest
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Hmm. that's indeed interesting if it can independently be replicated.
I just tried the Kelly formula, but am getting unsatisfactory results, but maybe I did something wrong. Will report back later...

The characteristic Kelly curve, here for other parameters:
Kelly_curve.png
 
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This thread reflects the riddle as to why a trader using a strategy with only modestly strong metrics does not do better.

A strategy like this should not be as rare as unicorns -
55% WR
2% risk per trade
1:1.5 r:r
1 trade per day
 
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NO wonder ,that's a gambling measure; not saying it's totally useless LOL.:D:D I use something i gambled with, as pool hall teen. If you think business is the same as gambling/ try winning in Vegas + see how far you DONT get, not funny.
As far as 4% risk, seems excessive ;
but 4%may not be enough on 1 of 7 or 8 positions. IBD uses 7-8% but thats on one position.
Its not really a coinflip also, not near that simple.
One of the better book quotes /UNKOWN Market.....Jack Schwager \ ''the market is not an annuity'':caution::caution:
But sometime it pays better than annuity. No wonder annuities pay so regular \ its so little % paid
 
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