S&P 500 at new high, Oil at new high, Dollar near the high, Gold close to the high and 10 year treasury note at new high (I think something is fishy here)
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- Thread starter Financial Saint
- Start date
Quote from gov:
I think everything points to recession end/early recovery, except of course the T-bond prices. I would sell any significant bond rally moving forward; everything else seems ok given the externals. jmho
so oil$87 is ok in your opinion during early recovery?
previous early recovery of 2002 started with $15 oil and ended with 147 in 2008
Oil is in a bubble, anyone who thinks its not is a fool, Oil prices today at $86+ is equal to $120+ 2 years ago when the economy was doing a 1000X better than now. All of the sudden higher oil prices means the economy is on the road to a recovery, who comes up with this fucking nonsense. Lets watch oil run its course higher and watch costs go through the roof once again leading to a cutback in consumer spending because they cant afford $4.00+ at the pump. The economy is headed towards another asset bubble, only took less than a year, go bubble ben bernanke.
Quote from kashirin:
so oil$87 is ok in your opinion during early recovery?
previous early recovery of 2002 started with $15 oil and ended with 147 in 2008
It's ok with me, yes. We are not starting with 15$ oil, and this is not 2002. Commodities are moving higher, no arguing that and oil is a commodity. Perhaps Asian demand, I don't know but CRB is obviously still in an uptrend so... I see $100USD oil on the horizon again. I just trade what I see; these markets are beyond figuring out, except in the most straight-forward, trading thought.
What I meant was simply that I think all but the last condition can co-exist simultanously in the early recession recovery. I think rates break higher from here so bonds down but everything else could still go up together from here.
I trade mostly ER2 (TF) and only small size in these so jmo...
I mean oil $87 in early recovery is not good and not OK. it 's up 20% in 2 month.
Another 20% and recovery will stay early and will become early recession
Of course US government can start subsidizing gas.
Let's say $100 billion gas stimulus. For 1.5 trln deficit it's nothing
But it will just speed up price increases
US government need to find a way to get cheap energy. No cheap energy - no recovery
Money manipulations won't help here
Probably they should start car conversions to NG right away
Oil at $100 will kill any kind of real recovery. And we might be there by June
Another 20% and recovery will stay early and will become early recession
Of course US government can start subsidizing gas.
Let's say $100 billion gas stimulus. For 1.5 trln deficit it's nothing
But it will just speed up price increases
US government need to find a way to get cheap energy. No cheap energy - no recovery
Money manipulations won't help here
Probably they should start car conversions to NG right away
Oil at $100 will kill any kind of real recovery. And we might be there by June
Quote from kashirin:
I mean oil $87 in early recovery is not good and not OK. it 's up 20% in 2 month.
Another 20% and recovery will stay early and will become early recession
Of course US government can start subsidizing gas.
Let's say $100 billion gas stimulus. For 1.5 trln deficit it's nothing
But it will just speed up price increases
US government need to find a way to get cheap energy. No cheap energy - no recovery
Money manipulations won't help here
Probably they should start car conversions to NG right away
Oil at $100 will kill any kind of real recovery. And we might be there by June
Waste Management is already converting their fleet of trucks to NG to remove themselves from the stronghold of the oil syndicate. oil is a joke. How about stopping the water bottle production. Plastic resins are impacting the oil market too- vise versa
Quote from shortie:
i will let you in on a little secret: "SWITCHGRASS"!
That horrible idea pretty much marked the top of the corn market in 2008. I honestly remember Bush saying that word, and I shuddered at the though of a nation like the US trying to fuel ourselves on some hillbilly mash. Corn then collapsed as it was clear that ethanol was a dream in the minds of agricultural lobbyists.
But yes, "SWITCHGRASS," Whooooeeeeee!