Quote from bone:
I would look at the bid/ask spreads between the futures and the bank cash market. If they're comparable, I'd have to think that the execution costs and tax advantages for the futures would make the CME market more favorable for the little guys like us.
Tax advantages are the same for currency futures and interbank market trading. See:
http://www.greencompany.com/EducationCenter/GTTRecCurrency.shtml
Leverage appears better and more controllable in the interbank market, imho. A mini FX contract requires $50 to hold, and each pip is $10, an ideal size for a small, experimental trader. A full size contract requires $2000, and each pip is worth $100; powerful leverage for a trader with experience in the market. A CME Euro FX contract, approximately the same $ size as the full-size interbank contract, requires $1350 at IB and each pip is worth $12.50.
The spread in the Euro future is 3 pips right now. Three pips is $37.50 and you pay $2.40 in commissions, a total of $39.90 for entry. The spread at FXCM on the EUR/USD is 4 pips (yes, that is on the high side), or $40 on a mini contract. A full-size contract costs 10x that for entry, or $400. However, 1 full-size fx contract is 8x per pip a CME Euro contract...8 x $39.90 is $319.20 (and requires $10,800 in capital to enter).
Bottom line? I think you save your self $80/entrance by going with the CME full-size contract, but you require more capital tied up. I think my math is correct there...
And there are other issues too that lean me towards these interbank brokers. Stops, for instance. I don't know how well market orders are received in the CME Euro futures market, but I'd imagine that you'd lose perhaps a few more pips in a transaction, perhaps alot more in a fast market. However, several of these interbank fx brokers guarantee their stops up to $2 million (20 full-size interbank contracts) meaning you can rest a little easier at night knowing your stop, if it is hit, will execute at the price you specified.
And just the notion that these guys are willing to guarantee stops up to 20 full-size contracts gives you a sense of the liquidity in that market. I am not sure how liquid the CME Euro futures market is, but it's worth considering. Can you hit it with 160 contracts (8 x 20) in a market order (ie your stop was hit) and receive no slippage?