Is anyone consistently profitable with the ES?

J

John1000

Not for just a day, week or month but month after month profitability.
Just wanted to hear some feedback from others out here that are successful trading the ES.
I've been trying for years and can't seem to find a method I either resonate with or can become
consistently profitable with. I've done all the psychology stuff with just about every top trading psychologist out there so I'm thinking I'm just not getting something about reading the market or trading in general to where I can be successful with it.
I stuck with one mentor for 5 years and never got consistently successful. I went to another one that was a scalper and discovered I didn't like scalping. I'd rather shoot for 2 -4 point targets than try to scalp for 1/4 or 1/2 a tick.
I went to another mentor that shoots for 1 point targets and the method only seems to work about 1/2 the time when you can get a signal to get on a trade. The majority of the time the market takes off and you're just sitting there watching it go without you. There's got to be a better way! I'd love to hear from anyone who is consistently successful and please share your mentor's info so I can do my due diligence and see if their method is a good fit for me.
Thank you for your help!
 
Yes.

Rough outline of one setup that I use is fade the high or low of the 1st 30m period RTH, in the 2nd 30m period. Captures 2 points a very high percentage of the time.

There are a few additional nuances (stop placement and exact entry) that I apply. YMMV
 
John1000 said:
I stuck with one mentor for 5 years and never got consistently successful. I went to another one that was a scalper and discovered I didn't like scalping. I'd rather shoot for 2 -4 point targets than try to scalp for 1/4 or 1/2 a tick.
I went to another mentor that shoots for 1 point targets and the method only seems to work about 1/2 the time when you can get a signal to get on a trade. The majority of the time the market takes off and you're just sitting there watching it go without you. There's got to be a better way! I'd love to hear from anyone who is consistently successful and please share your mentor's info so I can do my due diligence and see if their method is a good fit for me.
Thank you for your help!
More...

I consider 2-4 points to be a minimum scalp on the ES.

Here's a tactic to study:

Display a 5-min and 1-min chart.

On the 5-min chart, connect swing highs or swing lows in the direction of the trend. If there's no clean trend wait until there is. Be sure the trend lines on your 5-min chart transfer automatically to your 1-min chart.

Using a 1-min chart, wait for price to pull back to the trend line and trail a buy or sell stop on the 1-min so you're swept into a with-trend position if price turns back in the direction of the trend off the trend line area. If the 1-min bar you're trailing is wider than 2 pts, skip the trade unless a 1-2-3 pattern sets up with a narrower signal bar range.

So at the open today I wouldn't recommend shorting the break of the 9:29 ET bar's low because the stop loss would be greater than 2 pts and the potential favorable excursion to LOD at that point is only 1 pt.

If a bottoming/reversal pattern appears (failed breakout, double bottom/top, HL/LH) watch for a break of the prevailing trend line and a close above/below it.

An upside break occurs this morning during the 9:35 ET bar.

Now wait for a pullback to the breakout zone and trail a buy stop above the 1-min bar as long as the bar's range allows for a stop no greater than 2 pts, and as long as price doesn't close back inside the breakout zone.

This morning the 9:39 bar dips back inside and closes at the UTL, but a nice 1-2-3 setup appears as the 9:41, 9:42, and 9:43 bars close and the buy stop is triggered during the 9:44 bar action.

These are common scalper's setups generally good for 2 pts or more.
 
I am a Jack Hershey (Spydertrader) devotee. 9:40 was a very easy trade, bar dipped outside lateral and closed back inside. Clear exit was 10:15 on Outside bar. That was a cheeky 3pt trade.


I know of scalpers using renko charts with success.
 
Seems like the problem is YOU based upon what you've said yourself and its obvious via your own words you're not suitable for trading the Emini ES futures.

1) Therefore, what did those "top trading psychologists" say about you ?

2) Did any of those "top trading psychologists" visit you in your office to watch you trade in person to get a small glimpse of what's really going on with you ?

3) Why you're trading Emini ES futures ?

You need to think very carefully about the above questions.
 
I have one client who spreads ES vs NQ intraday - it's his core trade and he's been doing it for a long time. In fact, he manages a modest HF and he's been at it since way before he hired me so there's no doubt he's consistent with it. The two of us did a swing trade with it last year that worked out really well (spring, summer, fall - in fact, we rolled it twice ). But I haven't traded it personally since, so I could in no way claim to be a subject matter expert on ES consistency.

One way of many, many ways to trade a market like ES.
 
NoDoji said:
I consider 2-4 points to be a minimum scalp on the ES.

Here's a tactic to study:

Display a 5-min and 1-min chart.

On the 5-min chart, connect swing highs or swing lows in the direction of the trend. If there's no clean trend wait until there is. Be sure the trend lines on your 5-min chart transfer automatically to your 1-min chart.

Using a 1-min chart, wait for price to pull back to the trend line and trail a buy or sell stop on the 1-min so you're swept into a with-trend position if price turns back in the direction of the trend off the trend line area. If the 1-min bar you're trailing is wider than 2 pts, skip the trade unless a 1-2-3 pattern sets up with a narrower signal bar range.

So at the open today I wouldn't recommend shorting the break of the 9:29 ET bar's low because the stop loss would be greater than 2 pts and the potential favorable excursion to LOD at that point is only 1 pt.

If a bottoming/reversal pattern appears (failed breakout, double bottom/top, HL/LH) watch for a break of the prevailing trend line and a close above/below it.

An upside break occurs this morning during the 9:35 ET bar.

Now wait for a pullback to the breakout zone and trail a buy stop above the 1-min bar as long as the bar's range allows for a stop no greater than 2 pts, and as long as price doesn't close back inside the breakout zone.

This morning the 9:39 bar dips back inside and closes at the UTL, but a nice 1-2-3 setup appears as the 9:41, 9:42, and 9:43 bars close and the buy stop is triggered during the 9:44 bar action.

These are common scalper's setups generally good for 2 pts or more.
More...

LOL

And there you have it folks. The holy grail.

Is this some kind of joke? Im surprised you can be bothered spending the time to type this.

The poor guy is asking for help and he gets this!

A child with basic understanding of sd and statistics can see that this is BS - or any such system. Where did you get this? Trading for dummies?

So, please tell me whats so magical about 1min time series and how it relates to a 5 min time series, the significance of 2 ES points etc.
 
John1000 said:
Not for just a day, week or month but month after month profitability.
Just wanted to hear some feedback from others out here that are successful trading the ES.
I've been trying for years and can't seem to find a method I either resonate with or can become
consistently profitable with. I've done all the psychology stuff with just about every top trading psychologist out there so I'm thinking I'm just not getting something about reading the market or trading in general to where I can be successful with it.
I stuck with one mentor for 5 years and never got consistently successful. I went to another one that was a scalper and discovered I didn't like scalping. I'd rather shoot for 2 -4 point targets than try to scalp for 1/4 or 1/2 a tick.
I went to another mentor that shoots for 1 point targets and the method only seems to work about 1/2 the time when you can get a signal to get on a trade. The majority of the time the market takes off and you're just sitting there watching it go without you. There's got to be a better way! I'd love to hear from anyone who is consistently successful and please share your mentor's info so I can do my due diligence and see if their method is a good fit for me.
Thank you for your help!
More...

There is no method that will be consistently profitable. Thats the truth. You can have an 'idea' or an 'ethos' or a standard approach, but you have to work it into the sentiment and ever changing context. And that means a whole lot more than adjusting stops and targets for volatility.

If you could take a system like the one the crazy poster recommended and tweaked it every x for vol, youd still be a loser. The markets can never be that simple. Reflexivity ensures that.

Trading is hard work. Generally, the simpler the structure you trade (eg an outright), the harder it is.

Your best bet is to dedicate a few years of your life and focus on the markets. Ignore everyones advise and just do what makes sense to you. People like Nodoji and Dbphoenix clearly know zero about markets, and everything about being internet guru's. They do immense damage to people trying to become profitable with their over simplified BS. Yeah of course all you have to do is spot a pattern or draw a stupid line on a freakin chart. Please.
 
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