Is any part of your trading based on intuition?

Really? Is this as solid as your other "success" stories?

For example:

nwbprop -- flamed out under your direct tutelage. Unfortunately, that thread was deleted but there are some who remember it.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1109633&highlight=nwbprop#post1109633

Neoxx -- you said Neoxx was doubling his money every three days when he was actually losing money.

ScottD -- hasn't posted since March when he said "Cash Cow" (as certified by you) isn't profitable.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2462769&#post2462769

RoughTrader -- your claims about his trading deflated each time I called you on it and he hasn't posted since May.

04-23-09 01:26 PM
"For SCT like trading, rough trader takes 1500 dollars to 94,000 dollars"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2399521&#post2399521

04-26-09 06:51 PM
"Bottom line: looks like roughtrader makes 20,000 a month on two contracts average while scaling out of entries on his ATS"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2403231#post2403231

05-22-09 07:28 PM
"Rough trader is only making a couple thousand a month on a couple of contracts. He needs to make one adjustment to make 20,000 a month. He needs to add 18 contracts to his trading cars"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2437715#post2437715

Quote from jack hershey:

I like these results; they are not a claims nor are his lifestyle results a claim (s). What I like best about them is that they were done by a person who worked to learn the PVT application. Next he converted it into an ATS. Then he used the ATS to trade.

There were several consequenses. By the numbers.

1. He worked to learn.

2. He made an ATS to trade as he learned.

3. He contracted with Freightliner to build a custom unit.

4. He had a custom travel trailor built.

5. He attattached a 36" disk to the roof that hydraulically could be positioned to receive market data anywhere he treavelled.

6. He retired to conclude a 6 month leave of absense he had been on.

This is a story of how learning works; how understanding coding works; how having the freedom to do as one wishes according to a life style.

Trading, for him allowed him to purchase what he needed, to be able to travel and to have a home base to return to when he wished.
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Do you also play a mean fiddle?

Was this you on TV? Yeah, I know they said it's Charlie Daniels but there is a resemblance and judging by your claims...

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2715937>
Quote from jack hershey:

I can use a hammer. I can use a plane. I can use a bevel. I can use a molding plane. I can use my chisels (72 in the set). I can sharpen tools.
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Attachments

Don't forget to stop in the gift shop on your way out and buy the limited edition Jack Hershey paper trading doll to commemorate his stellar 24% loss in a trading contest in 2002 that he didn't have the integrity to finish.. limit one per customer

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2428031>
 
Quote from xxxskier:

agree 100%

and for me, i define intuition as subconscious thought with a foundation or a certain level of experience that has become so internalized that it it takes very little effort or no conscious effort to take action in your best interest.

for me, the experience i have after several years of day trading one instrument, it might be the old deal of first it is unconscious incompetence, then after a while it becomes conscious incompetence, then conscious competence (turnng the corner to profitability) and finally unconscious competence (becoming consistent).
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Quote from xxxskier:

after you've been doing something well for a while it becomes 'automatic' and requires very little conscious thought.

if you can't relate, maybe listen to (or read about) how a top athlete describes a top performance....usually they will say something about "not over thinking or just being in the flow/zone and feeling like it was natural.
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X,

Great posts :)

RN
 
I see Paparazzo666 is back in the bush with the camera flash at the ready to start the new year...

<object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yAd29GlCKf4&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yAd29GlCKf4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object>

Happy New Year!
 
At least I have the good intuition to put fools on my IGNORE list.
whew

Now, to the topic at hand...I'm not being argumentative, but, asking if one trades using "intuition", is like asking if you trade what you think, or trading only what you see.
My answer to ALL of those questions is
D. All of the above.
ymmv
 
Poor old Jack believes he was hired by the UN and several countries to investigate claims of global warming at Antarctica as he told us in this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161373&perpage=6&pagenumber=14

Quote from jack hershey:

You may not be a professional explorer hired by various nations or the united Nations. I was and there was a purpose. Long range planning primarily.

attachment.php
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He must be the only professional adventurer that never leaves his computer



Don't forget to stop in the gift shop on your way out and buy the limited edition Jack Hershey paper trading doll to commemorate his stellar 24% loss in a trading contest in 2002 that he didn't have the integrity to finish.. limit one per customer

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2428031>
 
Jack, do you really think your obfuscations can hide the failure of your "method"? The simple truth is that I tested one of your entry methods and it doesn't work. Period.

Specifically, I tested YOUR concept as outlined in YOUR paper, Catch Up With Tomorrow's Paper Today. I tested buying YOUR "0 to 7 turn" (see page 8) on 1000 stocks from 2000 to 2005 -- a total of 5000 stock-years -- using spydertrader's code for the scoring and exiting 5 days later and got the equity curve below.

attachment.php



Your attempt to add a new condition (for a prescreened "universe") that wasn't in your original paper is BS, as is your criticism of the time exits which I've told you ad nauseum were necessary because your exits are broken. You've also wrongly said that time exits are invalid when in fact they're useful for isolating the efficiency of entries. Or in your case, the lack of efficiency.

To further show how worthless that buying your "0 to 7 turn" is, I tested one of MY entry methods under the exact same conditions and parameters I used for testing your "method" -- 5 day exits, same stocks, same time period, NO prescreened "universe," same transaction fees, etc., and got this equity curve.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2715590>


Like it or not, here's the bottom line: buying your "0 to 7 turn" is no better that flipping a coin.

If one takes the trades from your "method" and compares them to trades from random entries, they'll find that the two groups of trades are statistically indistinguishable. Meaning, as I said, your "method" is no better than flipping a coin.

On the other hand... if one tests a profitable entry method (like mine) and compares those trades with trades generated from random entries, the differences between the two groups are statistically off the charts. Your inability to grasp this doesn't invalidate it.
 
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