Is any part of your trading based on intuition?
- Thread starter mynd66
- Start date
You're confused if you think the purpose of intuition is to separate trades generated by a system that should be taken from those that should not be.
All successful trading, regardless of method, is prediction of the future. No one knows what the future will be, but you don't need to know to make money. You only need to predict enough better than random to cover your costs and get a decent rate of return.
Quote from Trader666:
Jack, do you really think anyone believes this?
The first shell was called Basic Supreme. Basic meant core and we added some core bells and whistles to get to supreme. All beginner level.
the "S" suffice was for specific Supreme tweaks.
the A and A2 are one subset of cases for two line indicator logic. The B1, B2, B 3 and B4 are the other subset of cases for two line indicator logic.
The right column shows a P if a snagit of the condition was added as informational support.
The Z and Y and x sub suffix info was mentioned by scott since is is core logic.
There are six levels of logic shown in the columns. Items are composed of single identifyable degees of freedom. Sub conpand comp are assembled "outside" of the ATS logic. It is a generation breakdown approach whereby outputs of different functional groups can be merged to achieve two functions, timing and gating.
Under the function column you can see how indicators cases are interwoven on the beginner level. You can also see how the vector aspect is introduced using bar offsets (n-1, for example.)
It you look at the original "one pager" you will see that none of the 23 degrees of freedom shown on this Excel appear there.
Standard logic nomenclature was use for naming the degrees of freedom.
Because there are a lot of sub cycle indicator alternatives within the main P,V cycle, we are iteratively refining, you can see how we solved the need to consider all on a "Steer and Focus" basis with respect to just what is important at any given time. Unimportant things must be taken out of the picture.
As seen on this last page (ending with line 592) of the Basic Supreme (not delivered), there are no trading signals involved. This x, Y and Z logic serves other purposes. Trading to take the market's offer is not commonly done. the cash Cow entered on open and stayed in the market continually on the right side of the market. The issue of tending versus volatility was a key one. There is a requirement to go from coarse to medium to fine, but that capability has to be built logically going from a foundation and adding building blocks.
On the supject of anyone's belief system, each person's belief system is a consequence of decisions that that person makes. My hope is that you continue to believe what I do is bullshit. Your logic circuits in your mind have been demonstrated to a T in ET.
People other than you and your kind can look at the sheet I provided. Your looking at it will further confirm by your mind's logic that I am bullshitting. What the sheet represents to others is that I said we had 600 lines for the beginnings. I also stated we worked ahead (see JUN time stamp and my initials) on shell stuff. You can search for the amount of lines on other shells since it has been posted. The three holes indicate that it was pulled from a binder (2 inch) which was in one of four boxes of binders on the subject.
In sunnary, most people do not know how to use indicators. A lot of these people conclude that no one can use indicators. Even more people belief that indicators cannot be programmed dor use in ATS's.
when indicators came into being, they advanced the understanding of markets and they became useful tools for enhancing making money. They stem from the P, V relationship and are consistent with the P, V relationship. Any person can through purposeful work and learning, grow his mind so that it becomes differentiated and trading becomes like driving a car. You decides not to. Good, you have the consequences of your choices. Scott gave me a test. I took the test and we decided to work together. Now I have a monitoring platform with the indicators all set up by their items and five levels of assemblies represented by lites and it is very pleasing (refer to some of my illustrated posts). One pane was never shown.
Poor old Jack believes he was hired by the UN and several countries to investigate claims of global warming at Antarctica as he told us in this thread:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161373&perpage=6&pagenumber=14
He must be the only professional adventurer that never leaves his computer
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161373&perpage=6&pagenumber=14
Quote from jack hershey:
You may not be a professional explorer hired by various nations or the united Nations. I was and there was a purpose. Long range planning primarily.
He must be the only professional adventurer that never leaves his computer
Jack, I think you're confusing your "cash cow" with tacos.
Here's ScottD's final take on it and he hasn't posted since May...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2438060#post2438060
Here's ScottD's final take on it and he hasn't posted since May...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2438060#post2438060
Summary.
This was a brief comment to straighten out T666's misconception. He is not alone.
I do nor follow the CW since it is a TRADITION based on three things: income, growth and security. Obviously it provides none of these realtive to any reasonable lifestyle.
I am a scientist and my orientation is to problem solving. I worked for one corporation (IBM) after grad school 1957. Three years into employment I noticed my salary was lower than my commissions. My commissions were trivial compared to my equity curve. IBM provided me with further education (Theoretical Physicis) because I qualified in the top percents of the GRE.
If a person recognizes the market's offer and its simplistic of construction as an operating system, then the problem of taking the offer is on the table.
It is done scientifically using a paradigm. CW uses, mostly, induction. Hence the norms for CW financial industry practioners.
Trader666 has an Obsesive Compulsive Disorder as he has demonstarted. By not posting his back tests of the one pager "unusual Volume Corrolation Table as a follow on for his mistaken back testing of something he made up and which shows no statisitical significance.
It is not a joke for a person like him and several others to display OCD for years and tears on a daily basis. It is self destructive.
As a coutesy, I posted one page od a 600 line Excel support sheet from a four part document that integrated logic shhet, Excel, snagits of market charts and a dictated Dragon 9 text. This backed up a prior statement I made about content, time and extent.
Trader666 was not stupid when he came to ET. Now his behavior is out of his control , apparently.
Two line indicators were invented over a half century ago. From a scientific point of view, they are powerful in problem solving. In markets they solve two problems: timing the markets and filtering and gating.
Timing affords efficiency and effectiveness.
Filtering and gating afford being able to go to the right place at the right time and look at the right and precision data for input to automated logic. My term for this is called steer and focus.
There are many ways to use logic to process data and have precise controlover taking the market's offer. One simple way that is very inexpensive is to use one's mind.
To use one's mind it has to be differentiated.
To differentiate one's mind takes work in a purposeful learning context.
One definte branch point in this quest is the decision to learn and become differentiated or to do what ever to be able to make money.
Long ago the financial industry decided to take the money making fork and they focussed on security, growth and income as the choices for obtaining their profits. thier profits comes from commissions and fees as we all know. the financial industry does not make money by extracting the market's offer.
Two line indicators offer precision in taking the market's offer. Read lines 567through 590 and you will find that you cannot make jackshit out of them. It is just like talontrading could not read the market pace.volatility matrix not could he recognize a back test for a simple BO trade. Nor could his moderator who deleted my post.
Anyone can learn to trade and trade very profitably.
regardless of baggage at the beginning of purposeful learning, a person has the capability to learn IF THEY FOLLOW A CRITICAL THINKING RATIONAL PROCESS.
thw world through out the globe has demonstrated that people who decide to make money rather than learn, overwhelmingly fail. read eveypost of rcanfiel and trader zones to see the porcess of repeateed failure take irreversable effect. read every post of acrary to see how a problem solver differentiated his mind and changed course when critical thinking demanded it.
Mr Black trades as a hobby and he simply uses a basic core approach that he learned by problem solving and using the available ration deductively determined tools.
Why has Trader666 gone through the mental development he and others like him did. How did these guys get to "shoot the messenger" every day of their lives? These people are REALLY pissed off sons of bitches as General Patton might has said. Why did they give up, for their lives, the ability to trade and make money?
How can a person who is looking at a problem, arbitrarily give up using one of the variables of the market. Covel was once published by Prentice Hall; their management is NOT going to ever work with him again. He wrote a book on a technical subject and he and his editors did not include a reference to "volume" in the index.
In terms of indicators of price, volume is THE leading indicator and most people who take the making money fork in the path, skip using volume IN ANY WAY.
You cute little "wat" is very funny. I like seeing a person who is in left field wonder. You aren't wondering, howver. You were being, for a moment just sort of cute.
Making money and intellectual curiosity don't oftern mix. Sometimes they do, however. There is a moment for some people. My department head where I taught in grad school, read me the WSJ in his office one afternoon. He knew how things worked. And he invited me to learn.
Since then I have invited others for about 50 years. Turning down the invitation is always more popular. Most people choose either growth, security or income. The great guys and gals I work with choose extracting the market's offer using pool extraction.
I can see that you are in a neat and normal place. I respect the fact that most people are like each other and will always be that way. Once a person looks around he can see that there are things to do. One of the factors in getting things done is using money as a component.
when you look at problem solving talent for any porblem, one of the common aids is providing capital to that person's creations and potential creations. The teams of people doing this have a great orientation to life.
One our locals (an anethesiologist for children) who ordinarily helps do the batting order Sunday's, is out of town for a while; his is in Haiti for the duration. Givng 10% of profits is easy; he went a little farther. He said he knew that pool extraction was limitless and he could get back on it later and catch up. He will because we are going to really put out to help him when he retruns. In the mean time, he getd the dailies done for him and we keep up his records.
Soon people will notice some "tells' on the market that trader666 has screwed up in his mind. Why did he decide to cross irreversably the line in the sand? CW is dominated by published studies on fear, anxiety and anger. It comes from the undifferentiated mind.
Trading is like driving a car fro a person with a differentiated mind. If you can do anything well in any sport of field it is because your mind is differentiated.
wat?...... LOL... Too bad....
So intuition is a describable aspect of trading.
The OP is considering trading as a possibility.
As he says his mind is not too knowledgable and he lacks most trading skills.
At some point for quality traders, their skills and knowledge supply them with What Must Come Next (WMCN). WMCN is not supplied by intuition.
There is a set of traders who use prediction and their "prediction" is support by what they have chosen to equip themselves with. Some predictors feel it has to do with math others feel it is a consequence of their "edges" after 10,000 hours of doing something over time. These people may think they have "intuition" Good for them. The OP is headed in that direction.
If you don't use or require intuition, what takes its place? Intuition seems to be present in a lot of ways for a lot of things. BUT it is not used for some things.
If trading IS like driving a car, is intuition part of the deal? Yes and no, I guess.
If the OP looks at the market atany time in any part of his display he may or may not see the "future" or see what he should be doing. The best thing is to alwys have an answer that is correct for the moment. Intuition is risky and unreliable, in my opinion.
My reasoning is that I do know what is going on and that makes my trade work for me. Work for me means make money for me. I do it by WMCN which is off topic for the thread. Simply stated, I have a replacement for the need for intuition.
Predictors may be using a lot of intuition that came from their 10,000 hours. Again I did not do the 10,000 hours. I started on day one to trade the natural cycle using an approach I know know was based on problem solving using science and deduction.
Intuition could largely be based on inductive thinkng. Inductive thinking is very common as an adjunct to predicting. Give your self an experience in this by reading redneck's posts from the very second post. Induction is there all of the time.
My next 8 trades could become 6 trades then 9 trades to get to a similar place. Either route will no affect my profit segment taking. I am IN a container using another set of 6 or 8 or 9 containers and each of those have three moves within those containers. It is like "counting" or like three clocks running at different time cycles. There is no intuition because I know WMCN.
The predictors may not be predicting up to their next 9 trades; I do not know that. From what I read they use money management and risk based stops and targets to assure that their predictions either work or don't fail too badly. Intuition was thought up by the op for some reason. Maybe he wants to know if predictors feel less fear and anxiety if they are using intuition. I would say they are feeling less anxiety and fear, since they are sidelined between predictions and the reults of predictions (see traderzones, list of feel goods for measuring prediction; he doesn't have an intuition guage, however).
The OP is considering trading as a possibility.
As he says his mind is not too knowledgable and he lacks most trading skills.
At some point for quality traders, their skills and knowledge supply them with What Must Come Next (WMCN). WMCN is not supplied by intuition.
There is a set of traders who use prediction and their "prediction" is support by what they have chosen to equip themselves with. Some predictors feel it has to do with math others feel it is a consequence of their "edges" after 10,000 hours of doing something over time. These people may think they have "intuition" Good for them. The OP is headed in that direction.
If you don't use or require intuition, what takes its place? Intuition seems to be present in a lot of ways for a lot of things. BUT it is not used for some things.
If trading IS like driving a car, is intuition part of the deal? Yes and no, I guess.
If the OP looks at the market atany time in any part of his display he may or may not see the "future" or see what he should be doing. The best thing is to alwys have an answer that is correct for the moment. Intuition is risky and unreliable, in my opinion.
My reasoning is that I do know what is going on and that makes my trade work for me. Work for me means make money for me. I do it by WMCN which is off topic for the thread. Simply stated, I have a replacement for the need for intuition.
Predictors may be using a lot of intuition that came from their 10,000 hours. Again I did not do the 10,000 hours. I started on day one to trade the natural cycle using an approach I know know was based on problem solving using science and deduction.
Intuition could largely be based on inductive thinkng. Inductive thinking is very common as an adjunct to predicting. Give your self an experience in this by reading redneck's posts from the very second post. Induction is there all of the time.
My next 8 trades could become 6 trades then 9 trades to get to a similar place. Either route will no affect my profit segment taking. I am IN a container using another set of 6 or 8 or 9 containers and each of those have three moves within those containers. It is like "counting" or like three clocks running at different time cycles. There is no intuition because I know WMCN.
The predictors may not be predicting up to their next 9 trades; I do not know that. From what I read they use money management and risk based stops and targets to assure that their predictions either work or don't fail too badly. Intuition was thought up by the op for some reason. Maybe he wants to know if predictors feel less fear and anxiety if they are using intuition. I would say they are feeling less anxiety and fear, since they are sidelined between predictions and the reults of predictions (see traderzones, list of feel goods for measuring prediction; he doesn't have an intuition guage, however).