Is a global depression really priced in already?

S2007S said:
I'm actually quite shocked how high markets are today. With what is happening the s&p should be stilling pretty under 1500. And going to sub 1000 levels but remember without free markets you will never ever ever ever ever get real price movement. This is all fuxking make believe since the fed is printing trillions to keep the economy from falling into depression.

As I said many many many times here over the last years was that the next crisis was going to make the dot com collapse and financial crisis look like it never even took place...so far I'm 97% right but wrong in the fact that markets are 50-70% higher than where they should be at this moment......
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shocked? didnt you hear, bad news = good news now.
 
NY_HOOD said:
many so called experts are calling for an actual depression. I know we have many safe guards in place but irregardless of that, i dont see how that would be priced into the market already.
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Terms like "depression" are too vague to be useful - and on top of that they're emotionally loaded, especially with fearful connotations, thus using them is an obstacle to rational analysis.

The market is pricing in a sharp drop in activity during Q2 (like 25-30% annualized) followed by a rapid rebound during Q3 and Q4, leaving overall GDP slightly down on the year but well-placed to return to trend. Some sectors (eg cruise lines) may be crippled, many others will leverage the opportunity to cut costs, increase efficiency, and rationalize businesses which may have become flabby, bloated and complacent during the long expansion.

The main risk to this view is that things don't return to normal in Q3, further impairing cashflows, shifting many more businesses into the danger zone where collapse is a possibility, and above all creating fear / reducing confidence to kick off another leg down in stocks (and commodities etc).
 
S2007S said:
I'm actually quite shocked how high markets are today. With what is happening the s&p should be stilling pretty under 1500. And going to sub 1000 levels but remember without free markets you will never ever ever ever ever get real price movement. This is all fuxking make believe since the fed is printing trillions to keep the economy from falling into depression.

As I said many many many times here over the last years was that the next crisis was going to make the dot com collapse and financial crisis look like it never even took place...so far I'm 97% right but wrong in the fact that markets are 50-70% higher than where they should be at this moment......
More...

lol, so where exactly are you right, then ? That markets are declining ? What kind of statement is that ? This is a force majeure crisis, not a bubbly economic crisis like the previous ones. Noone really participated in the run up of SP500, most of the cash was sidelines, there's heavy amounts of cash in savings and depos like never before. Why do you think the rates are so low ??
 
NY_HOOD said:
many so called experts are calling for an actual depression. I know we have many safe guards in place but irregardless of that, i dont see how that would be priced into the market already.
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Agree.... market still has a long way to go down

Bottomfishing in a killer pandemic = epic stupidity

#crashunderway
 
Scataphagos said:
Oh, I get the sarcasm in that.

You got a lot of mouth for someone who admits to "trading for 20 years and still doesn't get it".
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you got a lot of mouth for someone who has nothing to say about technicals but only resorts to personal insults.
does not matter i may still have something to say since i am quoting text books:are you trying to say that stocks do not reflect economic activity
 
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