IS a bottom near???

Quote from S2007S:

Maybe this time we won't get capitulation. Maybe this time a slow drop is what we will see until everyone is totally satisfied selling. Have been a bear as well and think that this market is not worth shorting at this moment if anything I would wait patiently for the next bear market rally to get back in on the short side. Everyone knows earnings are going to be down significantly and to be honest with you earnings are the last thing on investors minds right now. Get the libor rates down and maybe are next concern will be earnings.
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Your "slow" drop, at a rate of 5% a day, will take the dow below 5000 in less than 2 weeks. This sir, is not a slow drop.
 
we will see rallies and dead cat bounces suckers rallies but the bottom is months away.....economy is going to drag this market down for the next coming qtrs. Unemployment will spike, gdp will tumble, earning will slide.....the bottom is months away.....just my opinion.

GOOD LUCK!


Quote from Ivanovich:

Is the bottom near? Depends - do you mean from a timeframe or a number? Because I cannot possibly see how - if the Dow continues to fall at about 400-500 points a day, that the bottom is that far off.

What's that mean? We hit 8000 in 3 or 4 days? Something HAS to give.
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Quote from JamesVU2000:

You may be right. Although Im not sure I would call this slow selling. there are sectors that have lost 75 percent of there value in the last two months.

I have no doubt the short ban is making thinking worse. And Bernanke doesnt have a F$$king clue what he is doing.

If this isnt a collapse than I dont know what is.
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Bernanke doesn't have a clue is right, months and months ago he spoke of no recession and soft landing, fast forward to today and he is talking as if he has been talking a severe recession since 2006. He knew what was going on. If Obama wins bernanke is getting replaced very quickly.
 
When I see guesses like these, I could only say one thing.

The bottom occurs when all the bottom pickers throw their towels too.

This bottom is going to last a long time. At least six months. A lot of sideways periods in between. Slow downward movement. It's going to squeeze out a lot of traders.

April 2009 might be a good time to start accumulating.

But then, I don't know what I am talking about most of the time.

Just another guess here, for the fun of it.
 
Just wanted to put this "we need capitulation" talk into perspective:

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In addition, that doesn't actually happen at very many market bottoms. Read the guy at Lowry Research (his name escapes me) instead of Cashin...he's reviewed decades of data during bottoms and tops (which are very different, BTW).

Quote from S2007S:

Arthur Cashin continues to say we need a really negative opened followed by a huge upside with massive volume to mark a bottom. In my opinion he has said this so many times that it just seems to obvious.
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