Is a 2nd crash more or less likely?

[Pekelo]

So after seeing just how fast the market recovered on the 6th, is another similar crash more or less likely?

Here is my guess. The lesson of the crash was that it was a huge buying opportunity, so if the Dow is suddenly down let's say 600 points, more eager buyers would step in and faster thus preventing further drop.

So I am guessing a less likely probability...

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from Pekelo:
----the 6th, is another similar crash more or less likely?
----a huge buying opportunity....
----more eager buyers would step in and faster thus preventing further drop.

1) 3-3-1-0
2) The low from the 6th has to be "re-tested". :eek:

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from nazzdack:


2) The low from the 6th has to be "re-tested". :eek:

But not necessery in a crash fashion. We can get there in a few slow 200-200 down days...

 

[dumb_mother]

definitely going to happen again, and i suspect we'll close at the lows next time as well.

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from Pekelo:
.....We can get there in a few slow 200-200 down days...

1) 3-4-1-1
2) Ah yes, the "soft landing" scenario.
3) ?....!....Wait a minute! Did you mean a series of 200-point downmoves in the Dow Jones or 200 consecutive down days? :eek:

 

[gettinglucky]

Definitely will be bearish for the intermediate term.

S&P500 fibonacci 0.618 retracement for late 2008 crash is 1,200 points. So definitely, we're looking at S&P500 1,200 point cap for the next little while.

 

[ajcrshr]

reminds me of the head end shoulders on GBP/JPY in 2007 only 10x larger

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from nazzdack:

Did you mean a series of 200-point downmoves in the Dow Jones or 200 consecutive down days?

Consecutive down days... Just a regular downtrend....

 

[LngEnf2NoBetter]

If you're rolling two die and you roll double sixes 10 times in a row what are the chances that the next roll will be double sixes?

 

[jj90]

Quote from LngEnf2NoBetter:
If you're rolling two die and you roll double sixes 10 times in a row what are the chances that the next roll will be double sixes?

Nice. Very subtle.
My turn: most people assume the dice is fair.