Is 56 winners out of 64 total positions a good trading record?

Quote from easyrider:

Quote from mrmarket:

Mvic...thanks for your intelligent commentary.

The reason why I don't let my winners run is that I believe that my model selects new companies that are actually moving up faster than the company I just sold. As a result, this allows me to compound my profits to faster returns. You'll notice that many of my winners nail 15% in only a few weeks. If I can put a few of these together, the gains can be significant. By letting my winner run, there's a good chance that I'm actually cheating myself relative to other opportunities.



I do sell losers, I just haven't sold any in over 2 years. The 8 stocks I'm holding now that are "in the red" all have very reasonable valuations when one looks at their earnings and revenue growth, business model and macroeconomic potential. It's like holding a rare coin, a painting, or a zero coupon bond. I'm willing to live with the dearth of cash flow because I know that its true value will eventually be realized by the market.]


These two paragraphs kind of contradict each other. Why wouldnt you get rid of your losers and put your money in the stocks you mention in the first paragraph?

I
More...


MM is an FA based investor. This is the equities aspect of asset allocation. At 44 he must have many other capital investments besides equities. The Wharton tradition instills in graduates a full range of beliefs. So do a lot of the other ivy league schools and their counterparts he seven sisters.

It is very understandable for MM precepts to be as they are and why they prevail. It is not a Wizard thing nor an intellectual exercise ultimately. The belief system of anyone is hard to change. MM's belief system is frozen by the risks he would have to take to consider growing beyond his immediate post adolescent experience where he moved away from his family roots.

Luckily for all ET'ers he can be an example. What if he actually focused on the basis of his "KNOWINGS" and what if he used more of the money management knowledge he studied.

By dring his FA analysis to the end of the corporate success phase he assures a long record of success in a context that is "not new", "not inovative", etc. This engenders risk. The cup and handle of WJO emerged from studying the phases of corporate life spans. The C&H is a phase change phenomena related to corporiations sizing up in their successful competitive rolls. Ultimately corporations exhaust them selves over thier long lives. Blah blah blah....

Where did the arbitrary 15% come from. Obviously it comes from the comprehensive analysis he did to contruct he paradigm he adheres to. We have never been told its genesis. The alternative, price fluctuations, when analyzed has never yield a set period for holding. The hold is tuned to the opportunity. This is an belief based choice that is founded on something as yet not articulated. Among al the things markets dictate, the hold cycle is the most significant.

The number of streams maintained by MM is well articulated. He added capital periodically to have opportunity as prior selections failed to perform.


I is a given that MM is not going to improve his approach. Wha is particularly nice about this is to follow it as the markets ebb and flow. The high correlation with this factor is neat to observe. Check out each time he restarts his porfolio after it fails.
More...
 
"Sometimes, not often, these stocks don't make it to 15% and languish. That's ok too...what has happened is that these stocks have metamorphosized into 'value' stocks"

is like a trader who, because his stop was blown and is now holding a losing position, decides to increase his timeframe and turns a short term position into a longer term position in the hopes that giving it more time will work out.

Two questions:

Last November, you had 10 losing positions. As of recently, you've had 10 losing positions. There have likely been many wonderful opportunites in between the two dates. How much profit do you think that has cost you to not re-invest the funds from the 10 losing positions?

mr. market, if your "momentum stock becomes value stock" becomes such a value by that turn of events, why don't you ever buy more of it?
 
Quote from Turok:

>
So, with your finest meat and cheese stock picking skills, I can only find one logical reason that you stick with the losers...you are more interested in trumpeting your "I'M HUGE and have XX WINNERS IN A ROW" than you are in maximizing your return.

But of course, it's your money (or not)

JB
More...


Actually, it's kind of fun to say I have 52 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. There are 678 members of my free website that think its fun also.

I think beating the market each and every year for the last 12 years is, in fact, maximizing my return.

Since every money manager on Wall Street would like to have this record, why do you think I am being sub-optimal?
 
Because they read a different Book of Common Wisdom than you did.

If that makes no sense, read one of the religion threads in ChitChat.
 
Quote from mrmarket:

There are 678 members of my free website that think its fun also.
More...
There you go again, making this spurious conclusion.

1. The 678 is a total tally of number of subscriptions. Not all of the members are active at this time.

2. You do not have a statement from all 678 members wherein they state agreement that they think your boasting is "fun also".

When you make unfounded statements like that, it undermines your already precarious credibility.

PS. Nice use of a post to promote your website, especially what with slipping in the word "free", as if that was necessary.
 
I respectfully disagree.....When mrmarkets thread appeared in my email, I was happy....I just wish I could engage him in a meaningful discourse and a rebuttal to my last post.

Mrmarket, I hope we can talk soon. Please keep posting, you are a good read, and in your way can share.....and I honestly can say I would truly miss your posts....

come on say it!!!!! let me hear it!!!! I AM HUGE .....Send me you finest meat and cheeses!!!!!! LOL ROFL :)

oh then there is the bench press thing and the division one thing...and we can't forget the Wharton .....oh too funny lol

Michael B.


P.S. actually the other folks here on ET also make this enjoyable with the bashing, rebuttals and such....I don't know if some of them are serious, but that would make it even funnier :)




Quote from gms:

There you go again, making this spurious conclusion.

1. The 678 is a total tally of number of subscriptions. Not all of the members are active at this time.

2. You do not have a statement from all 678 members wherein they state agreement that they think your boasting is "fun also".

When you make unfounded statements like that, it undermines your already precarious credibility.

PS. Nice use of a post to promote your website, especially what with slipping in the word "free", as if that was necessary.
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

I respectfully disagree.....When mrmarkets thread appeared in my email, I was happy....I just wish I could engage him in a meaningful discourse and a rebuttal to my last post.

Mrmarket, I hope we can talk soon. Please keep posting, you are a good read, and in your way can share.....and I honestly can say I would truly miss your posts....

come on say it!!!!! let me hear it!!!! I AM HUGE .....Send me you finest meat and cheeses!!!!!! LOL ROFL :)

oh then there is the bench press thing and the division one thing...and we can't forget the Wharton .....oh too funny lol

Michael B.


P.S. actually the other folks here on ET also make this enjoyable with the bashing, rebuttals and such....I don't know if some of them are serious, but that would make it even funnier :)
More...


I too enjoy the banter and I have fun toying with most of the folks that, for some reason, think they understand my model better than I do. Life is a joke, most people don't get it. When I see more people congratulating others for their successes, I'll start to believe that more than a handful of people on ET make money trading. When someone makes a great trade, you rarely see someone say, "Congrats! Awesome! Keep it up!" Instead you see people demanding that you scan and post your brokerage statements. What is that? Unfortunately, most of the people who post here seem to be very bitter and cynical..sad..very sad.

Quite frankly, I learn from some of the people on here, like yourself. I think this is an important revelation since usually the only people I usually listen to are Ivy League graduates who played football in college.

Thanks for your enlightened receptiveness to my ideas. You are clearly someone who "gets it".
 
MrMarket, How would you know if I were not an Ivy League football player? or even a doctor or one of your professors, assuming you went to college?

Perhaps I could even be an idiotsavant heavily medicated LOL

I did like Dustin Hoffman in rainmain....great movie

Your assumptions are noted and Thank you for the kind words....


I am HUGE too, actually I am ENOURMOUS....take it from mrmarket

by the way I will match my IQ to any ET'r ....no lets not start this...I will leave the hugeness to mrmarket (and scientist), I retract my statement about iq above.

Michael B.

P.S. where is Scientist these days? I miss his Australian arrogance. I took him off of ignore.....
 
Damn....you blew my set-up.....

Who are you? Stilltrading......hmmmm..must search.....

Michael B.


Quote from StillTrading:

Yea there is no way that your intelligence is less than mine :p
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top