lol, good point.
Is 56 winners out of 64 total positions a good trading record?
- Thread starter mrmarket
- Start date
lol, good point.
No because you do not even know how to close out your losers.
I had 9 wins, 2 losses today. One of the losses destroyed me so badly that Im down net for the month right now. And I actually know how to close out my losses but this out was out of the ordinary. Right now I do not even care about my wins, half of which were actually quite nice.
So bottom line, you suck and you are just asking to get wiped out.
BTW, your winners suck anyway, you take a measly 15% profit and thats it.
What I really want to know is if that's really your wife?
I'll admit I'm new and young and still learning, but one thing I've learned from this site is the real traders, the profitable ones, aren't posting all the time on here, and the few times they do post, it's usually to give some information about a question, not what their trade results are. So the fact that a 44 year old hairy ape is on here making recommendations or posting his results doesn't give much seriousness to your comments.
no one is going to convince you to take losses but why not at least let your winners run. Once you hit 15%+ put in a stop, if it gets hit you keep your 15%, but if you really do pick the best companies the chances are decent that you would have some 15%+ gainers. Just keep a trailing stop on them once you hit your 15% target. While you are at it sell some covered calls with strike above your 15% target. You will susbatially increase your return doing those two things.
Personally I feel that not cutting losers and not letting winners run is shooting yourself in both feet. Ultimately you will get taken out by any protracted bear run if on margin, if not you willl be stuck for years, possibly decades. That is not trading IMO.
Personally I feel that not cutting losers and not letting winners run is shooting yourself in both feet. Ultimately you will get taken out by any protracted bear run if on margin, if not you willl be stuck for years, possibly decades. That is not trading IMO.
Quote from axeman:
The numbers are meaningless.
There is no way to calculate actual returns.
In fact, if you put 20% of equity on each trade, he
would more than likely already have ALL his equity
"STUCK" in losing trades by now.
Sitting there in losers, unavailable for new positions,
possibly forever years and years.
What effect would THAT have on actual returns?
Dont bother with this guy, he will NEVER post the details
because he is SCARED
peace
axeman
It is his tradition to just start over.
At first he just had two streaqms; then 4; then 6 to 8; then he worked up to 14.
After that he got into trouble with the exact scenario you mention above.
Then there was a cash stream added and all the other streams were emptied on the journalling PnL.
He loaded it up a pick at a time and it went south yet again.
what he proves is:
Don't wait until the last 15% of the run. Start right when the quality is acheived and ride until the cycle ends.
Set stops to get cash for trading winners. Use trailing stops to get all the cycle has to offer (exit well above the stop to catch the peaking values.)
Don't trade more streams than necessary (6 to 8). You started with 2 went to 4 and should have stopped at eight. You added new capital instead of adding streams based upon profits. Now you have to make 15 picks to rotate capital just once. You need to do it 10 times a year as well.
Cut you cycle to the natural cycle (6 to 8 days) instead of the "Wharton cycle" of 4 to 6 weeks which is simply arbitrary. Pick 10 stocks weekly (top picks starting their run, skip the FA mumbo jumbo which is trailing data) and trade out of any hold when a potential buy has a cash velocity better than your poorest hold.
MM goal now:
15 streams
4 to 6 week hold.
15% profit per hold.
Annual results:
10 turns of capital @ 15% using total turns of 15 streams. 150 picks, holds, and profits. This is 3 per week average.
So far he has done about 60 turns or 1/3 of a years work since first turn way back whenever.
rational MM goals
6 streams
6 to 8 day hold
average profit half of cycle H/L, say 10%.
Annual results
40 turns of capital @10% using total turns of 6 streams. 240 selections, holds and profits. This is 5 turns per week based on trailing stops and carving peaks.
Comparison:
Now he achieves 25% of his target. If he went to a simple approach, he makes a ten fold target increase and always has cash to do successful picks.
Difficulties:
MM spends a lot of time with his family and he loves to work.
He needs to get potential buys from just a screen and skip all the FA mumbo jumbo. Let his wife do the scan or a child who can press button and print list before he gets up Saturday am.
Buy second day of cycle after BO and no FBO occuring. To do this he punches monitoring screen after work. Looks for BO and no FBO on his list of ten.
Place market buy and trailing stop from work. Repeat daily from evening check up.
Stops do the sell if he doesn't look the night before and decide then on a limit sell order for the following am.
Say he can't do it daily. Who cares do it every other day. daily takes 20 minutes a day. Picking stocks he does by the hundreds now. Just cut the sreening short to 10 a week. Save time on weekend.
Simplify more:
Do a trend fader version.
Use list from web site that is already prepared rather than set up screen. I recommend to fifth graders to use Stocktable.com. See IIL posts. Choose only 5 top up stocks from list once a week. Keep scan at 90/90 for EPS/RS percentiles.
Monitor on a free web site. Use some portfolios on clearstation.
Cut down to 5 potential stocks to buy and 3 streams of money.
Buy two days after BO just to be safe.
Only sell on the trailing stops or just sell three days after the buy.
This is a six day cycle (with a lot of delays and having cash) and may make only 5 to 7% since you miss two days of BO and you quit early on the natural cycle.
40 turns a year @ 5% is only twice as much as MM potential if he is perfect. Or in current MM performance terms this mechanical system only makes 8 times as much as MM.
Don't wait until the last 15% of the run. Start right when the quality is acheived and ride until the cycle ends.
Set stops to get cash for trading winners. Use trailing stops to get all the cycle has to offer (exit well above the stop to catch the peaking values.)
Don't trade more streams than necessary (6 to 8). You started with 2 went to 4 and should have stopped at eight. You added new capital instead of adding streams based upon profits. Now you have to make 15 picks to rotate capital just once. You need to do it 10 times a year as well.
Cut you cycle to the natural cycle (6 to 8 days) instead of the "Wharton cycle" of 4 to 6 weeks which is simply arbitrary. Pick 10 stocks weekly (top picks starting their run, skip the FA mumbo jumbo which is trailing data) and trade out of any hold when a potential buy has a cash velocity better than your poorest hold.
MM goal now:
15 streams
4 to 6 week hold.
15% profit per hold.
Annual results:
10 turns of capital @ 15% using total turns of 15 streams. 150 picks, holds, and profits. This is 3 per week average.
So far he has done about 60 turns or 1/3 of a years work since first turn way back whenever.
rational MM goals
6 streams
6 to 8 day hold
average profit half of cycle H/L, say 10%.
Annual results
40 turns of capital @10% using total turns of 6 streams. 240 selections, holds and profits. This is 5 turns per week based on trailing stops and carving peaks.
Comparison:
Now he achieves 25% of his target. If he went to a simple approach, he makes a ten fold target increase and always has cash to do successful picks.
Difficulties:
MM spends a lot of time with his family and he loves to work.
He needs to get potential buys from just a screen and skip all the FA mumbo jumbo. Let his wife do the scan or a child who can press button and print list before he gets up Saturday am.
Buy second day of cycle after BO and no FBO occuring. To do this he punches monitoring screen after work. Looks for BO and no FBO on his list of ten.
Place market buy and trailing stop from work. Repeat daily from evening check up.
Stops do the sell if he doesn't look the night before and decide then on a limit sell order for the following am.
Say he can't do it daily. Who cares do it every other day. daily takes 20 minutes a day. Picking stocks he does by the hundreds now. Just cut the sreening short to 10 a week. Save time on weekend.
Simplify more:
Do a trend fader version.
Use list from web site that is already prepared rather than set up screen. I recommend to fifth graders to use Stocktable.com. See IIL posts. Choose only 5 top up stocks from list once a week. Keep scan at 90/90 for EPS/RS percentiles.
Monitor on a free web site. Use some portfolios on clearstation.
Cut down to 5 potential stocks to buy and 3 streams of money.
Buy two days after BO just to be safe.
Only sell on the trailing stops or just sell three days after the buy.
This is a six day cycle (with a lot of delays and having cash) and may make only 5 to 7% since you miss two days of BO and you quit early on the natural cycle.
40 turns a year @ 5% is only twice as much as MM potential if he is perfect. Or in current MM performance terms this mechanical system only makes 8 times as much as MM.