Iron Condor on TSLA

[Pekelo]

Let's check where we stand...

Selling the 190/200/300/310 June IC for 4.1

Stock is at 277ish, the IC is at $1.6, 3 weeks to go. That is 62% ROI, if one is nervous 300 being too close, this is as good time as any to roll into the next IC, the price range should probably be 225-325.

My view on Tesla hasn't changed, it is still not ready to go down, unless some really bad news hits it (like Elon gets a heart attack from over tweeting). Actually I think there is a chance of a short squeeze, but that wouldn't last long, although could push the price quite high. There is evidence that Elon tried to orchestrate it by buying a few millions of its shares, but it didn't work. Right now there is a sell wall at 310 and a buy wall at 275.

 

[elitenapper]

There is evidence that Elon tried to orchestrate it by buying a few millions of its shares, but it didn't work. Right now there is a sell wall at 310 and a buy wall at 275.

Would you elaborate on the evidence of Elon Musk's attempt to buy a few million shares?

Also, what makes you think there is a sell wall at 310, and a buy wall at 275?

Thanks a lot.

 

[Pekelo]

1.Would you elaborate on the evidence of Elon Musk's attempt to buy a few million shares?

2. Also, what makes you think there is a sell wall at 310, and a buy wall at 275?

1. It was in the news 3 weeks ago. He did buy almost 10 million shares:

https://electrek.co/2018/05/07/elon-musk-buys-tesla-tsla-stock-short-squeeze/

2. That was just my view of the price action. When recently the stock opened above 310 it got sold off immediately. The following day's high was 309. And if you look at the price during the last few days it bounced from 274 several times, meaning buyers coming in. 6, 4 and 3 days ago, that price acted as support.

 

[elitenapper]

1. It was in the news 3 weeks ago. He did buy almost 10 million shares:

https://electrek.co/2018/05/07/elon-musk-buys-tesla-tsla-stock-short-squeeze/

2. That was just my view of the price action. When recently the stock opened above 310 it got sold off immediately. The following day's high was 309. And if you look at the price during the last few days it bounced from 274 several times, meaning buyers coming in. 6, 4 and 3 days ago, that price acted as support.

Thanks for the reply.

TSLA is bouncing up again. Let's see how long and high this one gets.

 

[vanzandt]

Thanks for the reply.

TSLA is bouncing up again. Let's see how long and high this one gets.

Nappy....hey check this out bro. http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20180613/ARAMT22CZ22XR222222N22Z2O2KMZZ2262A2/

I don't know what to think. The last time I saw a CEO do this it was Stevie Wynn and the stock (WYNN) was $58.

No wonder 200K shares traded before 8AM this morning. No leaks there.

Hmmmmm. Musk has nothing to lose. 25M is nothing. He's Elon Musk and he's young.
Wow.
Either way... what a great stock to enjoy the show with.

 

[elitenapper]

Nappy....hey check this out bro. http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20180613/ARAMT22CZ22XR222222N22Z2O2KMZZ2262A2/

I don't know what to think. The last time I saw a CEO do this it was Stevie Wynn and the stock (WYNN) was $58.

No wonder 200K shares traded before 8AM this morning. No leaks there.

Hmmmmm. Musk has nothing to lose. 25M is nothing. He's Elon Musk and he's young.
Wow.
Either way... what a great stock to enjoy the show with.

The timing is highly suspicious, of course, especially in view of Musk's threat about burning short sellers. The stock has run up quite a bit on his own hypes plus dubious Keybank "analyst" "estimates" and is about to take a nose dive. Obviously he's trying to push the price up further, or help cushion the fall.

72K shares are insignificant, but the purchase is a variation of his previous cheerleading tweets aimed to manipulate the stock price higher, which is helpful if Musk plans to raise more money through sale of stocks IMHO.

I'll just trade (or day trade) TSLA calls or puts depending on how the price reacts. It's good stock for short term trading IMHO, but not for holding.

 

[elitenapper]

I don't know what to think. The last time I saw a CEO do this it was Stevie Wynn and the stock (WYNN) was $58.

No wonder 200K shares traded before 8AM this morning. No leaks there.

Forgot this part. I'm sure you can ascertain from WYNN 5 year chart that $58 was pretty much the bottom when Stevie Wynn bought the stock (I was not following or trading stocks/options back then). So that's a legitimate entry.

Elon Musk, on the other hand, had the opportunity to buy at far lower prices -- he bought 33,000 shares only a month ago. Why didn't he buy the additional 72500 shares back then?! Why wait till the price is above $340, AND on the way DOWN after spiking to $355? Obviously Musk has got some admirable and not-so-admirable motives and agenda here. I'm sure he and his "Tesla Team advisors" knew full well where TSLA price would have gone without some sort of intervention.

Your thoughts?

 

[Hunnusunnu]

Let's check where we stand...
Stock is at 277ish, the IC is at $1.6, 3 weeks to go. That is 62% ROI, if one is nervous 300 being too close, this is as good time as any to roll into the next IC, the price range should probably be 225-325. My view on Tesla hasn't changed, it is still not ready to go down, unless some really bad news hits it (like Elon gets a heart attack from over tweeting). Actually I think there is a chance of a short squeeze, but that wouldn't last long, although could push the price quite high. There is evidence that Elon tried to orchestrate it by buying a few millions of its shares, but it didn't work. Right now there is a sell wall at 310 and a buy wall at 275.

hey man if you remember me I too had a very strong belief in the iron butterfly and iron condor systems. I was very happy to find your system and thought I found the holy grail.

I tried selling Iron Butterfly on SPY index with real money, believing that the risk was limited to only 1 dollars - the width of the fly minus the net credit. It was supposed to be an impressive 1 to 10 risk reward ratio.

But shit happened to me when I tried it. I have lost more than that, like 10 dollars as the stock volatility spiked. The option prices just got out of control as I tried to exit my losing individual option one by one.

Now I am frustrated. I am doubting myself. I am doubting this strategy. Where did it go wrong? Is it me? is it the broker front running my option wings? is it the strategy?

It is not like I am entitled to know a legit strategy. I just need real advice.

Anyway how are your trades going?

 

[TrustyJules]

Can you post your trade and the timing - you speak of the SPY and a stock - did you trade the index or TSLA?

 

[Pekelo]

I tried selling Iron Butterfly on SPY index with real money, believing that the risk was limited to only 1 dollars - the width of the fly minus the net credit. It was supposed to be an impressive 1 to 10 risk reward ratio.

Well you are posting SPY trades in a thread about TSLA. Also I think you mixed up 2 different threads, the 1 to 10 R/R ratio was mentioned in another thread. It was in a special IC where the wings touched and the price had to be at expiry at the touch. Like a 260/300/300/340 for Tesla if price is very close to 300 at expiry.

Anyway, the IC is just a tool and you have to pick the underlying carefully. It should go sideways for the duration of the IC to keep max. credit.

I have an IC on TSLA expiring this week, 260/265/340/345

I still think TSLA isn't ready to go down and I expect it to stay between 250 and 350...