Iron Condor - Is this the best?

[convexx]

As JT has stated; use the search function. Do you really believe that there are a dearth of condor threads? Sure, sell the iron and watch the money roll in. There is zero utility in posting a thread about a structure w/o an application. NO, iron condors are not an ideal strategy. You cannot trade them indiscriminately. They have a typically poor RR which generally requires a very high hit-rate. The risk of blow-out is proportional to hit-rate. IOW, people want to pick up nickels in front of steamrollers. The exception is the consecutive strikes, but those are simply a substitute for a fly.

So, it's not trading. It's an outlet for degen gamblers who want to do everything BUT trade.

 

[newwurldmn]

Why should anyone help you? You'll got it all figured out from day1.

This is the same guy who called me an indecent human being because I suggested he learn about put call parity when he claimed to understand debit spreads but needed help with credit spreads.

 

[voltrader1]

As JT has stated; use the search function. Do you really believe that there are a dearth of condor threads? Sure, sell the iron and watch the money roll in. There is zero utility in posting a thread about a structure w/o an application. NO, iron condors are not an ideal strategy. You cannot trade them indiscriminately. They have a typically poor RR which generally requires a very high hit-rate. The risk of blow-out is proportional to hit-rate. IOW, people want to pick up nickels in front of steamrollers. The exception is the consecutive strikes, but those are simply a substitute for a fly.

So, it's not trading. It's an outlet for degen gamblers who want to do everything BUT trade.

do you hold the same view for credit spreads?

 

[AdrianHagh81]

what do you use for selection of underlying? do you try and forecast max price movement of deeivative based on x% move of underlying?

that havent worked out towell lately, look what the es did vs spy on the correction 2 weeks ago.
and now we have to calculate the significance of market breaks especially during downturn.

 

[dryfly]

Your example sounds good but what underline offers $.55 credit at a 1$ wide strike one 1STD OTM?

 

[galvinlee888]

From what I've been reading, if the markets are random ( which is why some people trade options) and has been backed by some studies. No one can REALLY predict the direction of something accurately over the long term; this pretty much makes having a directional bias pointless.

That being said, isn't it then best to try and collect premium through non directional trades with limited risk? That trade being the Iron condor.

If you sell a 1 STD OTM Iron condor that has a probability of success of approx 64% and collect enough premium where over the odds make the profit greater than the overall losses, isn't success pretty much guaranteed?

For example, in 1000 occurrences if you collected $55 credit in 1.00 wide strikes, if the odds played out as per the expected probabilities, you'd be up overall.

From what I've been reading, if the markets are random ( which is why some people trade options) and has been backed by some studies. No one can REALLY predict the direction of something accurately over the long term; this pretty much makes having a directional bias pointless.

That being said, isn't it then best to try and collect premium through non directional trades with limited risk? That trade being the Iron condor.

If you sell a 1 STD OTM Iron condor that has a probability of success of approx 64% and collect enough premium where over the odds make the profit greater than the overall losses, isn't success pretty much guaranteed?

For example, in 1000 occurrences if you collected $55 credit in 1.00 wide strikes, if the odds played out as per the expected probabilities, you'd be up overall.

No positive expectancy in plain iron condor. Indeed, you are in worst situation after taking into accout your commission and slippage.

Just a hint, institutional never trade iron condor.

 

[crayon851]

i know all you guys are experts and what not about options and thats exactly why im here. ive been doing a lot of reading, but what better than to ask real people about their experiences? thats how you get better at things.

if you feel this thread is stupid, just dont respond to it. If youre going to make a suggestion to someone, maybe try it in a non condescending way? no one likes being talked down to.

if i was an expert, i wouldnt be on this forum. If i wasnt open to learning, i wouldnt be posting and asking questions.

you guys can think im stupid for asking the question and thats fine. youre entitled to that. just know that, im jist trying to learn.

 

[crayon851]

No positive expectancy in plain iron condor. Indeed, you are in worst situation after taking into accout your commission and slippage.

Just a hint, institutional never trade iron condor.

what do institution traders trade? my commission is $1 and because of my small account, i dont take on positions greater than one contract

 

[crayon851]

is everyone who is replying to this thread posting phenomenal returns like 50+ %?

 

[galvinlee888]

what do institution traders trade? my commission is $1 and because of my small account, i dont take on positions greater than one contract

They never trade iron condor.

My commission with TOS is $1 (TOS will give you this discount if your account size reach certain size). However, $1 is good enough for me. the reason is I only trade SPX options. Same reason, the % of commission paid is much smaller vs those SPY . I never trade IC.

No one will tell you how they trade (especially those that can trade profitable).