Iran vs. USA: First round

ssternlight · Mar 8, 2006

Hmm...

Didn't know that -- interesting.

By the same token though, sanctions may hurt more if GDP is not dependant on oil sales. Unfortunately, it looks like 80% of their exports are oil.

Now were down to essential goods needed for imports to run the economy...

Nana Trader · Mar 8, 2006

Quote from ssternlight:

Hmm...

Now were down to essential goods needed for imports to run the economy...

Dude, Iran isn't somehwere like US where everything has to be running systematic, smooth and perfect on day to day basis, they can have whole country running fuck-up for years, and convince everyone that it's a test from god side

During Iran vs Iraq war, Iranian couldn't get their hands on chicken and cheese,.. for months, forget red meat.

Can anyone on ET believe these?

It's even hard for me to believe

ssternlight · Mar 8, 2006

Quote from Nana Trader:

Dude, Iran isn't somehwere like US where everything has to be running systematic, smooth and perfect on day to day basis, they can have whole country running fuck-up for years, and convince everyone that it's a test from god side

During Iran vs Iraq war, Iranian couldn't get their hands on chicken and cheese,.. for months, forget red meat.

Can anyone on ET believe these? It's even hard for me to believe

Uh...not sure I agree with that at all.

Refinery, Telecoms, Medical, Transport, and Nuclear equipment to name but a few areas where imports are needed. You think everyone lives with a goat in their backyard over there?

Nana Trader · Mar 8, 2006

Quote from ssternlight:

You think everyone lives with a goat in their backyard over there?

Nothing like that at all

, i meant to say it won't be worse condition than what used to be.

Sanctions usually won't stop humanitarian aids and i don't think countries like russia, china, Venezuela, brazil,... and most muslim countries will fully obey all terms or obey at all

when the sanction will fail is just matter of time, while iranian do all atomic enrichment that wasn't on list of achievement

yeayo · Mar 8, 2006

Iran is supplying the terrorists in Iraq with ever more deadier bombs, military type bombs that can peice through any kind of armour. They are formenting civil war in Iraq to drive up American causalties until America leaves. And they're trying to wage an economic war with America by attacking the petrodollar system by switching oil sales to euro-demonination. Obviously the US has to do something about them. But what? I think war with Iran is a remote possibility - just think of the consequenses. I also think sanctions is also a remote possibility, I doubt France, Russia, and China would allow it. A conundrum.

Pekelo · Mar 8, 2006

At least we finally got back to the economic side of the story:

Quote from yeayo:

they're trying to wage an economic war with America by attacking the petrodollar system by switching oil sales to euro-demonination.

And they are not supposed to do that, because it is in the Bible:

XI: Thou shalt not sell oil in anything, but American dollar!

For the record, Saddam switched back in 2001, and as a result because the dollar got weaker to the euro, he made 20-30% extra just because of that switch...

Alexandre · Mar 9, 2006

Quote from yeayo:

And they're trying to wage an economic war with America by attacking the petrodollar system by switching oil sales to euro-demonination. Obviously the US has to do something about them. But what?

why should oil transactions be $ denominated?

romik · Mar 9, 2006

Quote from MRWSM:

The problem is they have no fear of the US. What's the most that can happen? The US sends a bunch of troops in their to rebuild their country and give food and aid while they pick off a few US troops per day. They know Bush is compassionate and they do not fear him. We need another Reagan to bring respect and peace again.

you simply can not compare what happened in Iraq to Iran, it's like comparing a pudel with a rottweiler. The outcome of military intervention from the US could be catastrophic for both countries, therefore should only happen as a last resort. The way forward, unfortunately, is through continuous diplomatic negotiations. I do not support Iran's policy towards nuclear developments, but who wants another Vietnam, do you? And actually it might be far worse than what happened in nam. Think of your kids man, please.

DrChaos · Mar 9, 2006

" For the record, Saddam switched back in 2001, and as a result because the dollar got weaker to the euro, he made 20-30% extra just because of that switch..."

Oh please, homie.

The dollar getting weaker: wouldn't have anything to do with Greenspan lowering rates from 6% to 2.5% or so???

And the oil buyers: what, did they suddently say, "Oh yes, even though everybody else is paying US$40/bbl, sure we'll pay e$40/bbl even though it's 25% more. Please Saddam, can I have some more?"

Exercise: Compare total liquidity and depth in EUR/USD versus value of oil sales from Iraq.

Hint: interbank spreads are 1 basis point: e.g. 1.2000/1.2001, visible depth in the tens of millions, and you can trade a yard (billion) in a few minutes with a phone call.

Pekelo · Mar 9, 2006

Oh, boy....

Quote from DrChaos:

[B
The dollar getting weaker: wouldn't have anything to do with Greenspan lowering rates from 6% to 2.5% or so???

[/B]

I didn't say why the dollar got weaker. Specially I didn't say it got weaker because of Saddam's switch. Don't read anything into my posts.

What I said was that for someone who switched to euros, the switch played out very well in a weakening dollar enviroment....

Are we clear???

Here is a quote for you from a few years back:

"So far only one OPEC country has dared switch to the euro: Iraq, in November 20002, 3. There is little doubt that this was a deliberate attempt by Saddam to strike back at the US, but in economic terms it has also turned out to have been a huge success: at the time of Iraq's conversion the euro was worth around 83 US cents but it is now worth over $1.05. "

Do the math.....