I don't understand where this pessimistic fear-mongering is coming from. Before EVERY WAR recently we see these same arguments. Also before the Iraqi war there was a lot of defeatism everywhere, how the enemy is so terribly strong, that we can't possibly win, at least not without terrible losses. Such nonsense.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
War with Iran would cause a severe global recession, if not a depression.
The recession is coming anyway, and a possible war with Iran has nothing to do with it.
Iran has the tactical capability to close the Straits of Hormuz for a month or longer.
Air strikes will obliterate any Iranian military capabilities on the Gulf in a matter of hours, or days at most. No significant delay to oil shipments.
Oil would rise to well above $100 for a sustained period of time, and sink all boats (pun intended).
The peak of the previous Iranian war scare last summer will not be exceeded.
All you have to do is ask two basic questions: What would $5+ per gallon gas do the U.S. economy?
What about the effects that $100+ per barrel crude oil would have on the prices of chemicals, fertilizer, carpeting, chemicals, plastics, engineered materials, electronics, transportation, etc., etc.?
Inflation would rise to 16% in the U.S. alone, there would be gas lines a mile long as shortages set in, and food prices would soar.
That's why oil is the most potent weapon of all. Iran has 9% of the world's crude oil, and 22% of the world's crude oil is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz.
And the litany continues...
If Iran were to stop exporting oil, that would be a positive, not negative, for the west. No more money to fund a repressive regime at home, nor terrorists abroad. The country would soon go bankrupt, and a revolution would force a change of government to something more friendly to human rights and other countries.
In fact, instead of war, that's a policy we should support. An oil embargo on Iran would put the mullahs on their knees quickly, without loss of life and other destruction. Oil prices would be somewhat higher for a few months perhaps, but that's a small price to pay.
But my point was why do so many citizens of the most superior military power in history fear war so irrationally??