IPII - Hurricane play started?

I dunno about this one.

Look at this report from last November when the stock tumbled. Has the Florida building market rebounded since then like they predicted? I don't think so.

Last Update: 10:56 AM ET Nov 14, 2006


IPII8.22, -0.09, -1.1%) shares tumbled 19% to $8.98 in Tuesday morning trade after the Pompano Beach, Fla.-based building products company late Monday reported third-quarter net earnings of $494,000, or 19 cents a share, down from $839,000, or 33 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue dropped to $17.5 million from $18.1 million. The company said the decrease in sales and income was primarily due to reduced demand because of the "significant reduction in residential building activity in Florida." "We believe the markets we serve enjoy favorable long-term demographics and based on historical precedent, the construction markets in Florida are likely to rebound earlier than other market areas in the United States," said Chairman S. Daniel Ponce in a statement.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...4AEB-BF3C-7B9A116C09E5}&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
 
This pick makes no sense. This IPII. That's why I kind of like it. If it just doesn't sh*t to bed and bases here and you're in it some summer weekend when all hell rips into Florida- you're a happy camper. This would be a very good summer play. Not going anywhere but technicals firming. Just upgraded by 2nd Opinion:
Second Opinion® Weekly - IMPERIAL INDUSTRIES (IPII)
Exchange: NMS
Close as of week ending
3/23/2007

Opinion

Opinion LONG Date Opinion Formed 03/26/07 Price Opinion Formed 8.22
Score 0 C-Rate 0.0 UPGRADED

Recommendation

Stock is a Buy.

Comment

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Weak Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.
Look for Support at 7.38

Week's Activity (Close as of week ending 3/23/2007)

Week Close 8.22 Week Change 0.83
Week Open 7.44 Week High 8.65
Week Low 7.02

Price Analysis

Yr. High 29.24
Yr. Low 6.54
MO Chg.(%) 6.2
Resistance N/A
Support 7.38
SELL STOP 6.04
Volatility(%) 4.9
Position 80
ADXR 17

Moving Average Analysis

Type Price % Slope
10 Day 7.35 111.9 UP
21 Day 7.52 109.4 UP
50 Day 7.68 107.0 UP
200 Day 11.58 71.0 DOWN

Volume Analysis

Ave Daily Volume(00) 350
MO Chg.(%) 95.4

Up/Down Volume (U/D)
U/D Ratio 0.7
U/D Direction UP

On Balance Volume BR
Positive OBV BL
Negative OBV BR

Money Flow(MF) 66
MF Direction UP


Technical Analysis

Alpha -0.23 50-Day R.S. 1.05 OBOS 1
Beta 1.17 STO(Slow %K) 78 B.BANDS 45
MACD ST BL STO(Fast %K) 74
RSV 6
MACD LT BL Wilder's RSI 75 POWER RATING 81

A Nice Long Shot. Little downside stk may move NOW due to good housing numbers out Monday. If the numbers are good down south I say we just go for it. I'll sell some losing biotewchs to cover. ~stoney
 
Come On Hurricanes, Go IPII (up 13%+)

By DAN ELLIOTT, Associated Press Writer
DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.
Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.
Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The Top of Form
National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.
Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.
A weak to moderate El Nino occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.
"Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes," Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Nino, "winds aren't tearing the storm systems apart."
The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Klotzbach advised coastal residents along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to have hurricane plans and preparedness kits in place, but he added, "You can't let the possibility of a hurricane coming ruin your summer."
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region.
Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.
Federal government forecasters plan to release their prediction in late May.
 
Up 15% today on the forecast of storms. What happens when that first tropical formation or actual eye forms in the Gulf?

My theory is, this stock's price is going to move based on the Butterfly Effect and it is my understanding that there were unusually large swarms of butterflies in Africa this year and all of them were just flapping their wings like crazy. (As the resident TA, can you do a thesis on that for us MS? - j/k)

Only 2.25M float with the bad housing news already priced in. Any positive housing numbers (which we also got today) or negative storm news can only cause this to take off.

(On a side note, my beloved Hurricanes are out of the playoffs with their loss tonight - Just HOW the F can you F'n WIN the F'n Stanley Cup one year and MISS the F'n play-offs the next!)
 
(On a side note, my beloved Hurricanes are out of the playoffs with their loss tonight - Just HOW the F can you F'n WIN the F'n Stanley Cup one year and MISS the F'n play-offs the next!

>> I couldn't give a rats ass about the Hurricanes, except the ones that rip into the mid Atlantic and destroy buildings....but THAT is pathetic! First To Worst!

What up TopD- fill me in I'm a little late due to an ENORMOUS amount of paperwork and errors dealing with my taxes! IPII moving because of the same El Nina forecast we have already gotten 3 times? Or Was it REALLY the housing numbers
(same day) We have to get our stories down for this thesis can it work without the storms?
~stoney
 
Pretty good day today on no news. Up 6% to close at $9.75. It looks like the run to 20 + may have started. If it breaks 10 on volume over 200,000 I will be looking to double my position.
 
TOPD you know I was waiting for your reply all day-- my wife thinks I'm a loser. But YOU know better! I've been doing my eagle eye pussie boy routine on IPII> but I was REALLY impressed with todays action too. To have a price swing like that large and close up at the top-- the fact that it's on no news makes it all the better.

My only debate now is whether to buy small 1000 shares or something much bigger. Would like to roll the dice at some point but for now it seems to be all baby bio all the time. What's your take?
 
Stoney - My take is that it is just a matter of time before the momo players step in and that is going to make this really jump. In '05 that happened in late May / early June; in '06 it was the first week of April. I took a 1/2 position (1,000 shares) 2 weeks ago in order to get in before a move. I was planning on taking the other 1/2 on a pull back (if it occurred) after earnings - or doubling up on the momo jump. Earnings are out, all the bad housing numbers were priced in, so I just see this as a pure hurricane speculation play.

That said, I don't think I would wait for an actual storm. This thing topped in May last year, long before the "calm of the storm" was known.

Volume is key (as always with a small float stock). Any move up with over 200,000 shares traded should signal the momo players to jump in.
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:


My only debate now is whether to buy small 1000 shares or something much bigger. Would like to roll the dice at some point but for now it seems to be all baby bio all the time. What's your take?
More...

Baby bio's - not for me I almost bought some ADLR today solely based on the chart that seemed to be basing. Glad I didn't - down 57% AH on bad news. Call me a pussy, but I'll stick with the PBE instead of individual bio plays, damn.
 
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