Tradesports.com has a specific "US/Israel bomb Iran" contract. It is currently estimating a 19.6% chance of an air strike by year end.
This contract is an interesting indicator. For example, the probability of a strike is down a couple percent since the beginning of April, but the oil price is up. My conclusion from this is that the commodity investors/speculators have been responsible for April's price increase and not Iran concerns.
Good trading today!
Aaron Schindler
Schindler Trading