Investing in SPY using dollar cost averaging, searching for ideas.

Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

Even if we started in year 2000, investing $1000 at the beginning of every year into SPY here is something close to what you would have done.

2000 - 152 = 6.57 shares
2001 - 125 = 8
2002 - 115 = 8.69
2003 - 85 = 11
2004 - 100 = 10
2005 - 120 = 8.3
2006 - 125 = 8
2007 - 140 = 7.14
2008 - 135 ( bad luck ) = 7.4
2009 - 90 = 11
2010 - 110 = 9
2011 - 130 = 7.6

At an average price of 118 you would have 102 shares.

I did this math quickly so I could have made some errors.

You also have to take into consideration any tax consequence + commissions + other things you could have been doing with your money to see if this makes real sense to you personally.

This kind of up and down will probably continue for another decade if consistent with previous markets. IMO we are just in a major consolidation.

Oddly enough SPY is sitting at 118.

What are the odds? hahaha
Impressive, and I'm not talking about the returns in SPY. You must have a very quick and inquisitive mind.
 
Now I'm starting to work on my schpiel, Hello, this is oldtime, your broker.

We feel that the next six months are a very good time to DCA into the market.

The time to act is now. Our studies indicate that this opportunity will not return for another two years.

It's both a conservative and a proactive approach.

Let's not get hog wild here.

Just 16% of your available cash this month and for the next six months, and then sit on the sideline for a while and let it play out.
 
Quote from oldtime:

Impressive, and I'm not talking about the returns in SPY. You must have a very quick and inquisitive mind.

It's no secret to traders and investors that US Markets has gone nowhere in the past 10 years.


IMO, consolidation before the new leg up, inflation alone will give us the breakout.
 
Quote from oldtime:

Now I'm starting to work on my schpiel, Hello, this is oldtime, your broker.

We feel that the next six months are a very good time to DCA into the market.

The time to act is now. Our studies indicate that this opportunity will not return for another two years.

It's both a conservative and a proactive approach.

Let's not get hog wild here.

Just 16% of your available cash this month and for the next six months, and then sit on the sideline for a while and let it play out.

heh that is funny
 
Quote from oldtime:

Now I'm starting to work on my schpiel, Hello, this is oldtime, your broker.

We feel that the next six months are a very good time to DCA into the market.

The time to act is now. Our studies indicate that this opportunity will not return for another two years.

It's both a conservative and a proactive approach.

Let's not get hog wild here.

Just 16% of your available cash this month and for the next six months, and then sit on the sideline for a while and let it play out.

That would be really hard for me to do. At least with a straight face.

For a while I had a job in Orlando where we sold this phony ass vacation over the phone for pennies on the dollar. Oh my god, what a riot that was.

I was really good at it too until I started investigating on my own. After I found out what they did ( and still do ) I made a lot less money. Probably was in my voice.
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

It's interesting to see how long term holds in ET have no favoritism yet it's how I make the money only to lose some of it in trading.

Go figure.
Long term hold is a good strategy only in a bull market. ET means elite trader, and an elite trader should understand such things as what strategy is suitable for what market.

Check Van Tharp's comment about buy and hold.
 
Quote from Lights:

The "system" requires you to wait 2 years from the onset of bear which is measured rear view mirror. How do you know that it wasn't a correction in a bull market, you will know 2 years later from the top. If we make new year highs, the count resets and so on. System does not begin adding before 2 year period terminates. If you were to add at 1100, you are adding way too early in the system.

Ok, after a 20% correction, you wait 2 years until your first purchase, unless a new HH is made, in that case, everything resets and you need to wait for a new 20% correction from the new highs and 2 more years.

Please confirm and thank you.
 
I know the conversation has strayed a little, but back to the original spy vs es part ... there is an interesting angle nobody mentioned. I think the answer depends on what you think you can achieve with your cash while you are rolling es, that could swamp the other cost considerations. With the futures you are basically leveraging at libor - if you put the cash you would otherwise put into the spy into investments that can beat libor while keeping enough of it liquid for margin calls then es beats spy. How good of a fixed income portfolio manager do you think you are? I am conveniently leaving out dividends and taxes and t-bill drag, but you get the idea.
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

It's interesting to see how long term holds in ET have no favoritism yet it's how I make the money only to lose some of it in trading.

Go figure.

Obviously you and Warren are in a league of your own.
 
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