Hey PersistentTradr, I've been looking at the scalp/discretionary thing closer, and here's what I came up with. This uses the data from your week 19 chart
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1656383 . As you take one position and then treat it as two distinct halves, trying to scalp 10 with the first half and trying to catch a trend with the second, it's easy to figure out how each half is doing. I'd be interested to hear any input you have about it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First, here it is assuming EVERY SINGLE scalp came through at 10 pt:
49 scalp contracts at 100% success:
49 contracts at $50 = $2,450
Commission= -$178.85
Profit from scalps: $2,271.15
Profit from 49 discretionary contracts (Total actual profits minus profit from scalps)): $5,851.15
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here it is assuming a more realistic 80% scalp success rate, and a 10 pt stop. (All the scalps I saw were 10 pt except one 15, and I saw some losses greater than 10, but this should give you some idea.):
49 scalp contracts at 80% success:
39 contracts at $50= $1,950
10 contracts at -$50= -$500
Commission= -$178.85
Profit from scalps: $1,271.15
Profit from 49 discretionary contracts (Total actual profits minus profit from scalps)): $6,851.15
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assuming the above (80% scalp success rate and 10 pt stop on the scalps):
Total profit, actual: $8,122.30
Total profit if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: $13,702.30
Total profit if both contracts had been traded as scalps: $2542.30
End balance, actual: $23,122.30
End balance if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: $28,702.30
Total percent profit, actual: 54%
Total percent profit if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: 91%
Total percent profit from "scalp half of account": 17%
Weekly compounded percent, actual: 2.30%
Weekly compounded percent if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: 3.47%
Weekly compounded percent of "scalp half of account": 0.83%
(Weekly compounded percent includes all 19 weeks, including the four weeks with no activity.)
From the track record you posted I feel you have shown that your amazing results have been due almost entirely to the discretionary half of your contracts. Further, you have shown that these discretionary trades consistently work. I feel that you could trade your entire account as such with much greater results and almost no additional risk.
