Everyone is down playing this, the inversion is getting worse. Here we sit with massive deficits, an inverted yield curve.
My gosh what a mess we have.
Tax the rich
My gosh what a mess we have.
Tax the rich
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Inverted Yield Curve
- Thread starter myminitrading
- Start date
I'd doubt that it's a good thing, no one ever said so except that nut from CNBC.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/widening-trade-deficit.html
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/widening-trade-deficit.html
NOVEMBER 13.
The yield curve became more inverted this week, with the negative differential between the 3-month and the 10-year at -49 basis points and a -76 basis point differential between the 10-year and the Feds fund rate. According to a Fed paper, that level of an inversion suggests there is now an over 40% probability of recession next year. This same model only predicted a 50% chance of recession in 2000, and as the paper authors acknowledge, the model probably understates risk in recent decades.
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/20452
The yield curve became more inverted this week, with the negative differential between the 3-month and the 10-year at -49 basis points and a -76 basis point differential between the 10-year and the Feds fund rate. According to a Fed paper, that level of an inversion suggests there is now an over 40% probability of recession next year. This same model only predicted a 50% chance of recession in 2000, and as the paper authors acknowledge, the model probably understates risk in recent decades.
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/20452
This is inverted:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html