Inverted head and shoulders on the SPX?

Quote from AMT4SWA:

Hello,

I bought the test of the 685' to 681's the first time down today as that area was not yet neutralized....I had scalp entry fills at 684.50 and 683.50 which worked out. I then bought one more time on the second retest of that 685's to 681's with fills at 682.50 and 681.50 (as area still did not yet go neutral......was still holding on)....that has worked out for up to 5 point targets so far. I will not buy that level again as area was almost taken to neutral on last run down. :)
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As of now, the 685's to 681's are now neutral.......area has had all resting inventory taken out. :eek: We will see what happens here now! :)
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

As of now, the 685's to 681's are now neutral.......area has had all resting inventory taken out. :eek: We will see what happens here now! :)
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Most times AFTER a delta zone is taken out and goes neutral (all resting inventory cleaned out), I will see a minimum move of 5 to 10 points through that previous zone. So far today, we have made about a 5 point move to new lows from the bottom of that previous delta NET Long Holders zone......after the 5 point run down there has been some buying of the new low area but nothing significant yet. :)
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

As of now, the 685's to 681's are now neutral.......area has had all resting inventory taken out. :eek: We will see what happens here now! :)
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Great trading AMT4SWA...I agree 685-681 area is now appearing uncertain...going into tomorrow.
 
Quote from Dogon566:

Great trading AMT4SWA...I agree 685-681 area is now appearing uncertain...going into tomorrow.
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Market was just grinding all day down to make that new low......I used the break to new lows today to cover more Rydex positions, only holding the last 5% of that position now. :)

Market going into the AH session at this point with minimal buy support at our new lows zone of 780's to 776's, but we do have some short covering just after the cash market close. :)
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

As of now, the 685's to 681's are now neutral.......area has had all resting inventory taken out. :eek: We will see what happens here now! :)
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I am looking at the cumulative delta for the day and for simplicity, let's say the delta when we got to 682 around 12:15 EST was about -100k. Prices continued to consolidate with Deltas doing the same. At around 15:00 EST, Deltas returned to about -100k with prices making new lows around 680.

To me, this means bulls still have some power since there was not real volume behind the new low. Sure enough, price retraced about 8 points.

We then came down to the 682 level (2 minutes before your post saying inventoried cleared out) with a higher delta, though not by much.

Question is, how did you know the inventory was cleared out if Delta wasn't equal? Or was this higher delta statistically equal? (Was greater by about 7% based on intraday data)

Attachment explains what I mean.

Thanks!


P.S. you should post pics of your airplane build sometime :)
 

Attachments

Quote from AMT4SWA:

Delta zone at 720's to 724's would be a better area going forward on a first time retest of that zone which held so far yesterday. :)
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Hi AMT,

sorry, but I don't get it: from 720 to 724, I see a long inventory of 2.000-2.500 contracts on March 2 and of 10.000-11.000 contracts on March 5.
So, not a short held inventory ... I probably use a wrong method of calculation?!
 
Quote from Gordon G.:

Hi AMT,

sorry, but I don't get it: from 720 to 724, I see a long inventory of 2.000-2.500 contracts on March 2 and of 10.000-11.000 contracts on March 5.
So, not a short held inventory ... I probably use a wrong method of calculation?!
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If you see a long inventory at that price, there are some people in the red a TON!

The way I understand it is, take your delta @ a price, then when prices reaches that level again, look at delta. If it's lower, you have short inventory; higher = long inventory.

The actual delta doesn't matter, it's the NET difference between the two.

AMT will have to confirm though :p

Take a look at the chart I posed 2 posts above yours. Look at 1 & 2. Note slightly higher (or equal) cumulative delta @ point 2 even though price is lower = net LONGS so it's minor bullish at that point
 
Hi Chuck,

the way I do it now is:

1) I identify a zone of congestion intraday on new highs/new lows

2) I take the delta value at the beginning and I subtract the delta value at the end of the area identified.

If it is positive, I have long held inventory, if negative I have short held inventory ...

guess I missed something important here, huh?! :confused:
 
Quote from Gordon G.:

Hi Chuck,

the way I do it now is:

1) I identify a zone of congestion intraday on new highs/new lows

2) I take the delta value at the beginning and I subtract the delta value at the end of the area identified.

If it is positive, I have long held inventory, if negative I have short held inventory ...

guess I missed something important here, huh?! :confused:
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Right, you have the net transactions in that zone, but your longs have long (hehe, pun) since liquidated on the way down. Your calculation doesn't take into account that they can operate outside of the consolidation zone ;)
 
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