I'm in your camp . . . . I truly think he thinned out 950s/930s shorts at 865-870 level and was long looking for 930s and then 950s, and after 950s were gone, he was probably long around 950s from Thursday 7/23. While long and probably not short at this time, he's probably contemplating a bluff on the longs . . .
Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!
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I'm in your camp . . . . I truly think he thinned out 950s/930s shorts at 865-870 level and was long looking for 930s and then 950s, and after 950s were gone, he was probably long around 950s from Thursday 7/23. While long and probably not short at this time, he's probably contemplating a bluff on the longs . . .
True, but he will take longs as long as they meet the required conditions, maybe not on full size, but I'd be surprised if he didn't take the long at 865-870 in whatever size . . . the CDV was quite large . . . if I recall correctly . . .
Not to mention that ES1000 & 1300 are likely the next relevant "zones"
NO, that was the first red flag. He had a 2 tier system with longer short positions he held. I know exactly how he thinks because he disclosed how closely he follows Alex Jones, a fellow Texan.
The second red flag was constantly selling higher if he was wrong. The problem occurs when the market moves relentlessly against your short position like this last run up. Better traders than him have been wiped out with this scenario. Richard Dennis, a trader who started out at the MidAm exchange talks about a trader he thought was the best trader on that exchange and he went on to the CBOT. Later, when Rich Dennis joined him also trading on the CBOT, this "miraculous" trader came to Dennis begging for some relatively small sum like $25k or he'd lose his seat. Rich was incredulous and asked how was this possible? His answer, the same as AMT approach, he averaged up his losers until he was busted! I'm not talking about his socalled intra day trades but his long term trades.
Next red flag was staying in the market over night. Why is this necessary unless your main focus is longer term positions like being short? He claimed to hit 5 point targets repeatedly. So, why was it necesary to remain overnight and assume unneccesary risk?
Next red flag: Why come on loser ET and post your trades real time? Do you think there are any successful professional traders who do that here? Of course not. If they want recognition they start a small hedge fund to stroke their ego.
Why didn't AMT start a small hedge fund? Only logical reason is this: Some people can develop systems and trade them hypothetically but they are not traders. They don't have the balls. Go back and read his posts. He talks about being AFRAID to trade 10 contracts. He probably never got over it. Why would you be afraid to trade 10 contracts if you were right even half the time? That's not logical.
Next red flag: The airplane "kit." People making huge amounts of easy money go and buy a biz jet or share a biz jet- NO KIT AIRPLANE. That's for poor people! That's for losers. No exceptions. Did JFK jr have a kit plane? Does Harrison Ford have a kit plane? Does John Travolta have a kit plane? What about Oprah? What do they have in common? M O N E Y. Lots of it.
I could go on all night but the fact is you'll never know for sure. I've read people go to great lengths to post fake accounts they get so caught up in this nonsense. Unless you can see the money you're like the rich poor bastards in Palm beach who lost their real millions in savings to Bernie Madoff. That's why I think ET is a collosal joke! It's not real like Bernie's trading.
AMT's methodology, albeit making sense with the explanation/theory provided, is nothing but trivial to apply. Counter trending is tougher than trend following, requiring greater discipline and tighter money management. On the flip side, if you can master it, playing in a zero- (or somewhat negative-, to be accurate) sum game, your edge is arguably subject to less competition. CT is also tough because you mainly play on the edges at the end of moves, sometimes watching extended moves the TF folks are riding while you sit and wait for reversal signals.
I'm speculating that AMT is scalping intraday longs to help relieve that frustration. One of the advantages of an ATS is that you don't have to sit and watch paint dry, but from what I understand, AMT's methodology includes elements that would be difficult or impossible to automate. And then, if you do automate, where do you get the satisfaction of being proven right while your audience is cheering?
btw even tho Ken has zero credibility as far as his own trading is concerned, doesn't mean he doesn't make some valid points here and there.
ET = enlighten, educate, entertain, ego?
I'm speculating that AMT is scalping intraday longs to help relieve that frustration. One of the advantages of an ATS is that you don't have to sit and watch paint dry, but from what I understand, AMT's methodology includes elements that would be difficult or impossible to automate. And then, if you do automate, where do you get the satisfaction of being proven right while your audience is cheering?
btw even tho Ken has zero credibility as far as his own trading is concerned, doesn't mean he doesn't make some valid points here and there.
ET = enlighten, educate, entertain, ego?
KM is doing 10 points per day, every day and from that base he can easily work up to 100 lots per trade.
That is almost 50K net per day ( after minimal comms)
We know this because KM has told us and so with that kind of money I imagine he doesn't care less whether he has credibility here at ET or not.
I imagine that KM is clearing 10M per year and I imagine AMT is doing the same based on what he has told us.
Both very different Traders and both achieving 10M per year.
It is a once in a lifetime opportunity for us to learn from both Ken and AMT.
jjf
Earlier he said that AMT is/was an idiot...
Obviously he kills everybody he doesnt like... in his mind... His imagination tells that all of them suffered painful death...
But people - what difference it makes if he has 10pts or not? If he is doing well does it give him rights to be such a jerk and be above the others manipulating the threads and expelling AMT from this board for his own pleasure?
C'mon...
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