Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!
- Thread starter AMT4SWA
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Quote from Hungryman:
Well so far AMT is wrong on the 870's breaking and causing a big plunge down
Yeah. Well, since 865-866 traded a couple of times, and that was one of his target zones, I'm pretty sure he covered a good portion of his shorts in there.
IMO he has only shown a little part of his method, but he is deadly accurate and his realtime posting record speaks for itself.
I don't buy his 1000 batting average, but what does a frog in the bottom of a well know about the ocean?.
I really have no idea how he does it, since that CD and divergences, etc are 50-50 to my eyes. Good for him.
I hope he comes back and posts more charts.
JW
I have a bit of time here before I get back to work
A couple of things that might help people interested in working with volume
First to the gentleman to started the thread, I say you are generous in providing that kind of direction to retail traders.
Secondly althought cumulative volume is important, what is more important is the type of volume and the timing of its appearance. Specifically volume that exists as resting orders above and below specific price points can be seen in advance. That kind of volume known in my business as "responsive volume" (limit orders) is only a part of the picture. For a directional move to sustain itself (as we saw in the S&P yesterday) there also must be "initiative" volume in the form of marketable orders that appear as institutions and programs trigger their reserve accounts.
The display that you are looking at is only one way to visualize volume and process it. There are others and one could simply program a spreadsheet (given the programming talent) and do much more with it. What I have seen is a nice first (and second) step, and one can learn a lot from it. Do however take notice that in order to "see" the market fully, it is necessary to add some kind of statistical (historic) record in order to see context properly. For instance, using a "volume at price" format (similar to Market Profile) one could make a record of historical average volume for each bracket (200 days would be adequate) then as you see volume come into the market, you could compare it the historic average and determine whether initiative (new marketable orders) activity is occuring.
Today's rally happened on significantly higher than average volume after 1:00pm EST. That volume was both short covering and commercial interests piling into the market with urgency. The short covering could be anticipated. The initiative buying by institutions and funds cannot, and probably can't be seen using these tools. That is why periodically using this format you may get "surprised"....it is one of the problem of working with what you call divergence. I hope my English is not too clumsy to understand.
I wish everyone the best of luck
Cheers
A couple of things that might help people interested in working with volume
First to the gentleman to started the thread, I say you are generous in providing that kind of direction to retail traders.
Secondly althought cumulative volume is important, what is more important is the type of volume and the timing of its appearance. Specifically volume that exists as resting orders above and below specific price points can be seen in advance. That kind of volume known in my business as "responsive volume" (limit orders) is only a part of the picture. For a directional move to sustain itself (as we saw in the S&P yesterday) there also must be "initiative" volume in the form of marketable orders that appear as institutions and programs trigger their reserve accounts.
The display that you are looking at is only one way to visualize volume and process it. There are others and one could simply program a spreadsheet (given the programming talent) and do much more with it. What I have seen is a nice first (and second) step, and one can learn a lot from it. Do however take notice that in order to "see" the market fully, it is necessary to add some kind of statistical (historic) record in order to see context properly. For instance, using a "volume at price" format (similar to Market Profile) one could make a record of historical average volume for each bracket (200 days would be adequate) then as you see volume come into the market, you could compare it the historic average and determine whether initiative (new marketable orders) activity is occuring.
Today's rally happened on significantly higher than average volume after 1:00pm EST. That volume was both short covering and commercial interests piling into the market with urgency. The short covering could be anticipated. The initiative buying by institutions and funds cannot, and probably can't be seen using these tools. That is why periodically using this format you may get "surprised"....it is one of the problem of working with what you call divergence. I hope my English is not too clumsy to understand.
I wish everyone the best of luck
Cheers
AMT! You are spotted. Your name is now on the white board in central globalists castle.. Stay alert. Ninjas are heading your way... To shut you.. Forever...
Ugo thank you for the post. As long as I understood from the threads is that AMT watching these responses all the time real--time hence he is historical data himself. So he has both keys in his hands.
His apostoles however are getting surprised too often, yes
Ugo thank you for the post. As long as I understood from the threads is that AMT watching these responses all the time real--time hence he is historical data himself. So he has both keys in his hands.
His apostoles however are getting surprised too often, yes
I am sorry sir, I have no idea of what you are saying. Forgive me please.
And I think my English gets in the way of my thought process.
To be clear, by "initiative" activity I mean that the participant "lifts the offer"...Buyer accepts the offer and pays up.
in contrast, "responsive" action is when the seller "hits the bid" or to understand another way the seller gives up or is forced to accept a lower price for his inventory. Seller accepts the bid.
I am sorry to say I cannot talk further about it without compromising my own employment. So I stop here and wish everyone the best of luck
Cheers
And I think my English gets in the way of my thought process.
To be clear, by "initiative" activity I mean that the participant "lifts the offer"...Buyer accepts the offer and pays up.
in contrast, "responsive" action is when the seller "hits the bid" or to understand another way the seller gives up or is forced to accept a lower price for his inventory. Seller accepts the bid.
I am sorry to say I cannot talk further about it without compromising my own employment. So I stop here and wish everyone the best of luck
Cheers
Good post Ugu. I have been pondering that same aspect of dynamic volume @ price (and delta, which is really differential volume) as a function of time, as opposed to merely looking at a static market profile snapshot. I suppose the effect of using different moving-average historical time brackets (200 days, 50 days, etc.) is just like any other smoothing filter with quick or slow reaction to the changes in volume on the price ladder so the proper choice has to be done in accordance with one's trading timeframe.
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