Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

[satchel]

Quote from Ken More:

As is, what has been posted will be arbed away.

:eek:

Overlooked aspect of this thread?

Think Kubrick's The Shining? "Heeeere's Johnny!"

 

[pismo10]

I don't think anyone of any importance (ie those who could effect the S&P market by their size) is reading or paying any attention to this or any other thread on ET.

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from manlycure:

With respect to the CD at the BUY signal (right after the cash open) you have:

(1) Positive DD @ 14:37
(2) Negative DD @ 18:07

Without hindsight knowledge, how do you choose the reference point (for delta divergence) to justify the long trade?

No......BOTH divergences were positive and goes into the context of recent price action. As the market closed and moved into the AH session there was positive divergence and then just out of the cash session open. Looking for intraday trade set-ups just out of the cash session open is always a good idea imo. There was good evidence just after the open to buy into that first order flow transition (with a group of "net" long holders from the previous EOD action willing to defend on the pullback to test AH session lows).

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from Ken More:

I would like to kill the individual who "discovered" Divergence!

Wasted years on that one. Someday, as Dr. Phil says, you'll find "that dog won't hunt."

Massive order flow divergences with price have marked about 90% of all major moves in the ES since I have been using delta........I LOVE them!

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from tradingbug:

Also, if we have an intraday trend with for example 3 legs. Each leg was done buy initiated trade. Therefore, there would be resting inventory at the beginning of each leg of the trend. My guess(still thinking it through) is there would be resting inventory right where the initiated trade at the beginning of each leg. Also, on change of an intraday trend from long to short or viceversa which will create a high or low of the day will have initiated trade that would have defenders if we approached that area in the future.

Sorry for my rambling...

Basically bigger players HAVE BEEN selling the bounce off the 899's so far.....

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from nirav34:

Maybe AMT has different way to look at it, but that's how I look at it.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2wqdhrr.jpg

What you have shown is also another VERY smart way to use the data......drawing and watching what I call "threshold" levels is always important.

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from Ken More:

One final comment:

The commercials go to great lengths to hide what they do in all futures markets so why would ES be any different?

Since they are usually right, while large speculators are usually wrong (even though it makes no sense- since how do you stay large when you're mostly wrong?), volume is so carefully watched that they must take that into consideration in their machinations.

As long as traders have access to the ORDER FLOW data, "commercials" will never be able to hide everything they do.....

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from Ken More:

No, Bill was analyzing divergence with indicators. I'm sure he hasn't looked at DD.

My point is the commercials are aware of common things like every permutation connected with volume.

My guess is AMT could trade with nothing more than a screen with price and do well because he thinks analytically.

I think the ABSENCE of proper delta tools in MOST well known charting services (TS, Esignal, Realtick, etc) is very interesting as a stand alone thought........

 

[manlycure]

Quote from AMT4SWA:

No......BOTH divergences were positive and goes into the context of recent price action. As the market closed and moved into the AH session there was positive divergence and then just out of the cash session open. Looking for intraday trade set-ups just out of the cash session open is always a good idea imo. There was good evidence just after the open to buy into that first order flow transition (with a group of "net" long holders from the previous EOD action willing to defend on the pullback to test AH session lows).

I've marked your chart to clarify my question. When I get the buy signal after the cash open, I look backward in time to see if and what divergence exists. I see two possible reference points to calculate delta relative to, if I choose #1, I have neg div, if I choose #2, I get pos div. If not by hindsight knowledge, what rule would unambiguously determine that the divergence is positive to favor a long trade?

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from Insearch:

This may be a really silly/naive question but who exactly are "commercials"?

Plus, I'd assume they are not one person, but a group of people/corporations who behave in a similar way . . .

I'd also assume that one commercial cannot for certain know what the other commercial will do at a certain time . . . unless they are a "secret society" . . .

So how do they know what to do, and if the're changing things in their strategies/trading, how'd they know to all do it at the same time?

I'd like to know AMT's and Ken's views, but would appreciate comments from anyone who understands their behavior . . .

Commercials are institutions/players you typically see trading in the PIT (and electronic)......they frequently trade large positions in concert with one another (heck they can watch each other as they enter/exit positions realtime). I am sure there has at times been some wink and nod action within their realms, no secret society needed.

As more volume moves to electronic contracts (away from open-outcry) it is important to have the means to analyze the electronic contracts order flow.