Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Quote from EdgeHunter:

JMon'.... can you comment on this....

Here is a pic...

We made a low on June 10th at 923 Sep ES and today we made a double bottom low at 923 this moring on a higher CDV...

its only an intraday minor minor CDV postiive divergence (its now ova since the CDV crashed down farther now) but at the time was it not a positive (albeit minor) CDV divergence...

?

ya i see it i just asked AMT about it..
 
Quote from EdgeHunter:

JMon'.... can you comment on this....

Here is a pic...

We made a low on June 10th at 923 Sep ES and today we made a double bottom low at 923 this moring on a higher CDV...

its only an intraday minor minor CDV postiive divergence (its now ova since the CDV crashed down farther now) but at the time was it not a positive (albeit minor) CDV divergence...

not that it in any way negated the large selling inventory up at 946 to 955... just trying to see if we had a minor intraday pos divergence... ?

or Maybe since the Primary contract on June 10th was the June Contract... its hard to measure this... ?... June across to Sep...
Sorry......been VERY BUSY the past days and been hitting good "pay dirt" today with the many SELL's from the upper Delta Zone now hitting extended profit targets. Price now should make a run to test the lower major Delta Zone from our current multi-week range (was 880's to 876.75 on JUN contract.....now 876's to 872.75 for new contract). If we break through this level in the days ahead ALL the buyers of this trading range should be cleared out and price will most likely trade to lower levels (and a good probability to the next lower zone of resting inventory).

Edge - your chart does show what would have been a good intraday scalp LONG trade with delta divergence (against the extended down move from today)......but once the delta dropped back to the level when you first entered you would just pull off any remainders of that LONG trade at b/e or better and call it good. As you can see, after that massive LONG covering continued as LONG players in our current multi-week range are continuing to bail. :)
 
Quote from EdgeHunter:

:) ... will do Lawrence... thanks... :)
Good to see others may finally add some much needed DELTA tools in the various other charting platforms. :cool:

Cumulative Delta is definitely not hype.....it is a brilliant tool for monitoring order flow REALTIME while also visualizing the bias of the order flow through zones of RESTING INVENTORY.

Right before your eyes the past weeks you have watched a MAJOR "net" SHORT delta zone of resting inventory build and now drive price away to lower levels (with SEVERAL rotations of price to the upper delta zone with a divergence in place......several very clear opportunities to have sold near the exact highs prior to this sell-off). :)
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

Sorry......been VERY BUSY the past days and been hitting good "pay dirt" today with the many SELL's from the upper Delta Zone now hitting extended profit targets. Price now should make a run to test the lower major Delta Zone from our current multi-week range (was 880's to 876.75 on JUN contract.....now 876's to 872.75 for new contract). If we break through this level in the days ahead ALL the buyers of this trading range should be cleared out and price will most likely trade to lower levels (and a good probability to the next lower zone of resting inventory).

Edge - your chart does show what would have been a good intraday scalp LONG trade with delta divergence (against the extended down move from today)......but once the delta dropped back to the level when you first entered you would just pull off any remainders of that LONG trade at b/e or better and call it good. As you can see, after that massive LONG covering continued as LONG players in our current multi-week range are continuing to bail. :)
Thanks AMT...

Yapper... that minor minor scalp long... lasted about 15 seconds... but its always interesting to watch the Delta Flow...

The Delta- The River of Buys and Sells... Ole' Man River... Dat old man river... He mus'know sumpin'... he just keeps flowing... flowing along... :D
 
Quote from MidKnight:

OK, well the reason I asked was because if this 'simplicity' is the signal, then identifying which signals to take in real-time is extremely hard.
Especially, if ones stops are not as flexible as AMT's.

My best,
MK
There is a very simple way to use cumulative delta for intraday only type entries (those trades which are typical with a static entry, profit targets, and stops). :) I have shown some of those examples in various places within this thread (shown as intraday scalp trades/examples). When I take scalp trades intraday I always use a tighter stop and handle these trades different than how I handle my longer term position trade set-ups......so delta can be used for more traditional methods of trading (without scale in/scale out position management). :)
 
Quote from Lucrum:

Hopefully this hasn't been asked before.

Has AMT or anyone else ever compared your cumulative delta numbers with the open interest. IOW if there really are net new shorts or longs there should also be a corresponding increase in open interest, albeit the OI won't be in real time of course. I'm not advocating replacing CD with OI just wandering what if any correlation there is between the CD and OI.

Or maybe I'm way off due to a lack of understanding the CD stuff. And no, I've haven't read the whole thread either.
Sometimes it IS in alignment and sometimes it is not........commercials are at times setting trades up very different than the rest of the pack. :) BTW, the commercials tend to be RIGHT with their trades frequently. :)
 
Quote from MidKnight:

AMT, am I correct that you calling a sell signal any down delta bar when it is in your zone? For some reason I thought it was more than that, but your recent charts seem to indicate otherwise....

All my best,
MK
You ALWAYS want to enter a SHORT trade into a negative delta bar (and the opposite for a LONG trade).......but once I see a "quantified" amount of delta order flow transition, I will then enter trades like my examples (the amount of "quantified" delta is up to you.....I am using what works for me). If price is trading in a delta zone and I get a order flow transition, that is EXACTLY what I need to see for an entry......if I am selling I want to join a SELL RESPONSE at entry (just the opposite for a LONG trade).
 
Quote from jfw215:

Hi AMT,

Please feel free to take a look at the pic below of google. CD has been trending up like mad while price going lower. Looks like MF's are buying while getting better cost basis... any thoughts on whats going on? sorry i couldn't get any more data then this... dtn.iq only had this much backfill.

thanks

W

http://files.getdropbox.com/u/1221114/goog.JPG
Stocks CAN HAVE very different behavior than a futures contract. If you want to use delta for stocks I would say you would need to watch your listing you want to trade for at least a few months.....make sure you understand the price/order flow patterns for that listing.

I have not spent the time using delta with stocks to verify what stocks are good and which ones are not for delta tracking (as there are different games which go on in stocks than futures). :)
 
Quote from SoCalTrader619:

I was also perplexed that the Jun contract had rising CD while the Sept contract had falling CD. Then I pondered what this could mean....

Could it mean that commercials are covering their Jun shorts (appears as buying, hence the rising CD) before they expire, and then rolling that money into new shorts on the Sept contract(falling CD)???

In theory it makes sense, but we'll have to see what AMT says...
Yes exactly.....there is rebalancing/and position transfer taking place since there was such a large "net" short position at/near rollover. :)
 
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