Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Quote from AMT4SWA:

With all this remaining held net short inventory, the 957's news run was the ultimate "fade" play. Now I will be watching the 946's and up if we trade back to those levels......I do think we would see sellers attempt to defend that area. There is so much net short inventory built here, I would think the commercials want some space between their positions and closing price by the EOD today. :)
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Well so far we had the 946 area defended on two rotations with the 947.00 touch pivot and the 946.00 touch pivot. Looking now for news fade sell-off move, which caused 933.25 LOD pivot, to be taken out as the market seeks 925's-922's. :)
 
Quote from manlycure:

Assuming no new information was gained until just prior to the news, why wait for price to ascend to 947 during the AH instead of exiting at the low 940's?
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As you can see from all my other entries and exits, I just leave the positions on most times and let them ride.......sometimes price will come and hit my stops and then sometimes they do not. I also take scalp trades all the time in separate account.......so there are times when I will be overall short with core positions and yet long in a scalp trade (only differrence is the scalp trade is of diffent position sizing). I would never take my positions off at like the 940 area in the AH session then possibly have no position on as the market then sells off (after already holding those positions all that time prior.....just not what I do).
 
Quote from Insearch:

AMT just trying to understand the logic here.

With the pop up, a lot of commercials would have loaded up at the higher price point to play the fade. As price came down, wouldn't they have covered some of those 46-49 area inventories and held the 57 area inventory?

Now they would want to defend the 46-49 area even though it isn't the "edge"? Why? b/c they want the price to push/test lower and ultimately see what the situation is at the 922 area?

But they didn't do this on Wednesday around the 33 area? Why would this be?
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There is still inventory being held from the 946's to 949's......they have not yet cleared out all that inventory. They were able to add inventory from better pricing levels, but the lower very large core group of inventory from past days is still shown by overall size of net short levels.

From an Auction Market Theory standpoint........if the sellers have now had their zone of inventory challenged and price is rejected, then it is very high probability of trading back to the next significant area of resting inventory (that is down at price levels below current price.....so price will trade down through minor areas of support to next major area of resting supply.....price likes to trade to size/resting supply).
 
Quote from manlycure:

Using the method you've illustrated before, The first two sell pulses off the HOD are 957.50->955 and 955->953.25 creating a zone of roughly 4 pts. The CD differential (total for both pulses) is 10k contracts. Did I get that right?
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Yes there is about 9,000 net short in the zone you have mentioned.
 
Quote from manlycure:

First target on 947 entries is 942 (5 pts), right? I don't see what can be gained from holding 942 thru 947, since you know that area is where the action is likely to start from. Why not collect your 5 pts in the AH at 942 and use the extra liquidity to re-establish a bigger short at 947 if you really feel like it?
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At the 942's I would have no way to tell if price would actually trade back to 947's unless it did.......so I always let my remainders ride.
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

There is still inventory being held from the 946's to 949's......they have not yet cleared out all that inventory. They were able to add inventory from better pricing levels, but the lower very large core group of inventory from past days is still shown by overall size of net short levels.

From an Auction Market Theory standpoint........if the sellers have now had their zone of inventory challenged and price is rejected, then it is very high probability of trading back to the next significant area of resting inventory (that is down at price levels below current price.....so price will trade down through minor areas of support to next major area of resting supply.....price likes to trade to size/resting supply).
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How they hell are you able to piece things together so logically? Please tell me learning AMT was not an overnight revelation to you but a process of observation and understanding over some time!

My CD keeps screwing up and I have a few "data holes". If you get a chance would you please post a chart, I just wanted to see a full picture of the CD today?
 
Quote from Insearch:

How they hell are you able to piece things together so logically? Please tell me learning AMT was not an overnight revelation to you but a process of observation and understanding over some time!

My CD keeps screwing up and I have a few "data holes". If you get a chance would you please post a chart, I just wanted to see a full picture of the CD today?
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I will post a chart after the close....no prob.

I can look at inventory distributions and pretty much tell what is going on by what I have seen so many times before. These volume distributions at major zones of held resting inventory always act about the same.......they either hold (and build) or they thin down and then eventually get neutralized.
 
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