Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Quote from stoneface:


Why is it correct to count all shorts from 940-947? (Giving us 24k after accounting for buying efforts from 40-46)

Stone
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I believe it's simply about comparing CD (gives the total position of contracts at a given point) when price trades into the zone again, so at about 13:45 on this chart we had ~16K short resting inventory . . .

Quote from stoneface:



Wouldn't all the net shorts that sold below 942 freak out as price traded over their entry?

Thanks for sharing!

Stone
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I think the answer is yes, but the CD tells us that by the time we get to the zone there's either buyers bailing or new shorts coming in . . .

I'm still learning though so AMT can clarify . . .
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

Nice SOLID new Delta Zone formed as of today's action....947.25 to 944.25 has around 25,000 contracts net short. :cool:
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When 24s-27s were first formed how many net short were there, and what about 876s, how many net longs accumulated there? Trying to see how much delta it would take to create a "major" zone like the two (above) that you pointed out before. 950 didn't come through today, makes me think this might act like 876s.
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

I always love the "we," part.

"They" are the conspirators.
However it's
"We" that are the traders.

Amazing.
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It is WE for ME because I am a part of the held SHORT contracts.......:cool:

GOT IT! :eek:
 
Quote from stoneface:

Thank you for the great chart. I would have only counted the net short delta zone between 944 and 947 totalling about 12k. (181.8k - ~170k VB)

Why is it correct to count all shorts from 940-947? (Giving us 24k after accounting for buying efforts from 40-46)

Wouldn't all the net shorts that sold below 942 freak out as price traded over their entry?

Thanks for sharing!

Stone
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I only counted the "minimum" delta zone range of 3 points from HOD to 944.25......so I take the net short contracts (more than enough statistically) within that 3 point range for this zone. I did not count contracts down to the 940 level.....only down to 944.25 :)
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

I only counted the "minimum" delta zone range of 3 points from HOD to 944.25......so I take the net short contracts (more than enough statistically) within that 3 point range for this zone. I did not count contracts down to the 940 level.....only down to 944.25 :)
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Of these 24k contracts, how many of these do you view to be long-term holders? In other words, do you consider that 5k or 10k of these would target the last swing low (940) as a place to exit? Or have you found that any significant zone (based on # of contracts per zone) mostly consists of longer term holders who either look for a double/triple digit target or take a stop/avg down? Is this where the 50% criteria comes in?

Thanks
 
Quote from chuckt101:

Of these 24k contracts, how many of these do you view to be long-term holders? In other words, do you consider that 5k or 10k of these would target the last swing low (940) as a place to exit? Or have you found that any significant zone (based on # of contracts per zone) mostly consists of longer term holders who either look for a double/triple digit target or take a stop/avg down? Is this where the 50% criteria comes in?

Thanks
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You would be surprised how many of these positions get held for very long periods of time, so I do not worry too much about how many MAY be held. I just know from my experience, these zones stay in play even after 6 to 9 months of price away from the zone prior to return. The 50% is a guide I use at times when price returns to an area of a previously formed zone (like after a rollover or extended period of time).

Here is the previous delta zone shown as it was neutralized today...........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/06/01/ES_3
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

You would be surprised how many of these positions get held for very long periods of time, so I do not worry too much about how many MAY be held. I just know from my experience, these zones stay in play even after 6 to 9 months of price away from the zone prior to return. The 50% is a guide I use at times when price returns to an area of a previously formed zone (like after a rollover or extended period of time).

Here is the previous delta zone shown as it was neutralized today...........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/06/01/ES_3
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I really like your charts and explanations . . .
 
Of note today, the neutralized delta zone did not cause the price to range extend 5 points or more. This shows there were minimal levels of remaining held inventory 940's-944's AND bulls were not willing to buy the upper levels of that previous delta zone to maintain the rally strength. Instead, we built up a very significant new delta zone of resting held short inventory (many LONG holders from lower level entries taking profits mixed with new initiated sellers building up sizeable SHORT positions).

This area has become very important now as a result of today's volume distribution. :)
 
Quote from Insearch:

I really like your charts and explanations . . .
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Thanks.....just trying to put the price action into context with how I watch these delta volume distributions play out.
 
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